Sutjeska vs Kairat preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stadion Kraj Bistrice Wed, 15 Jul - 7:00 PM
Champions League
Full Time Wed, 15 Jul 7:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 4
|
Goal
Jorginho - 82' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sutjeska 0–2 Kairat. The result saw Kairat take the points. Kairat showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Sutjeska 0-2 Kairat. Kairat showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match positioning for both sides.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with pre-match positioning.
  • xG expectations: No xG data was recorded so expectations could not be assessed.
  • Event impact: The second-half red card altered the flow of the contest.
  • Red card distortion: The home red card created measurable distortion in the second half.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
W. Myć
W. Myć
Referee 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
B. Heinig
B. Heinig
1st Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Lisowski
M. Lisowski
2nd Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Gryckiewicz
P. Gryckiewicz
4th Official 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sutjeska M. Pekovic
M. Pekovic
VS
Kairat R. Urazbakhtin
R. Urazbakhtin
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kairat Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sutjeska Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: 99 L
Club Brugge Rank: 87 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sutjeska
22.77%
Draw
23.31%
Away Kairat
53.92%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sutjeska
+22.13%
Draw
+19.13%
Kairat
-41.26%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
20.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sutjeska
Kairat
Power Score
50
20.28
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Sutjeska Opponent-weighted form score
Kairat Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sutjeska Kairat

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Sutjeska

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Kairat

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sutjeska ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kairat
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.10
22.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.30
18.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sutjeska -0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Kairat +0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sutjeska
Kairat
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sutjeska ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kairat
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sutjeska Kairat
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sutjeska Kairat
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sutjeska
Kairat
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Sutjeska
vs
Kairat
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sutjeska Kairat
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sutjeska Kairat
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Sutjeska
Kairat
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KAI had peak pressure around 86'.
  • KAI started the game with stronger pressure.
SUT Pressure KAI Pressure
Pressure Index: KAI reached the top pressure at 86' (64.01).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sutjeska SUT Home
1 matches
Kairat KAI Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-16T00:01:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 15, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 4
Stadium
Stadion Kraj Bistrice
Capacity
5214
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Wojciech Myć
Bartosz Heinig
Marcin Lisowski
Patryk Gryckiewicz

Statistics

Possession
SUT
52%
KAI
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
5 Shots 5
61 Dangerous attacks 43
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 22
5 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 6
29 Throwins 15

Attacking

105 Attacks 115

Defensive

2 Saves 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
23 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI

1
Vladan Giljen
Vladan Giljen Goalkeeper
5.88
2
Aleksa Golubović
6.05
15
Boris Kopitovic
Boris Kopitovic Defender
6.05
22
Andrija Raznatovic
5.92
72
Anto Babic
Anto Babic Defender
6.05
6
Deni Hocko
Deni Hocko Midfielder
6.23
9
Petar Anicic
Petar Anicic Midfielder
6.5
8
Kenroy Campbell
Kenroy Campbell
Midfielder46'
6.27
11
Vasilije Cavor
Vasilije Cavor Midfielder
6.5
7
Aleksandar Boljevic
Aleksandar Boljevic
Midfielder56'
6.27
20
Jovan Cadjenovic
Jovan Cadjenovic Midfielder
6.37
10
Balsa Toskovic
Balsa Toskovic
Attacker75'
6.46
77
Marko Simun
Marko Simun Midfielder
6.27
99
Marko Mrvaljevic
Marko Mrvaljevic Attacker
6.46
55
Slobodan Babic
Slobodan Babic
Attacker75'
6.46
Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI

1
Temirlan Anarbekov
Temirlan Anarbekov Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Luís Mata
Luís Mata Defender
6.5
5
Lev Kurgin
Lev Kurgin
Defender86'
24
Aleksandr Mrynskiy
6.5
25
Aleksandr Shirobokov
6.5
44
Lucas Áfrico
Lucas Áfrico Defender
6.5
6
Adilet Sadybekov
Adilet Sadybekov Midfielder
6.5
8
Olzhas Baybek
Olzhas Baybek
Midfielder86'
7
Jorginho
Jorginho Midfielder
6.54
17
Azamat Tuyakbaev
Azamat Tuyakbaev
Midfielder86'
13
Jaakko Oksanen
Jaakko Oksanen Midfielder
6.45
19
Oiva Jukkola
Oiva Jukkola Midfielder
6.5
9
Edmilson
Edmilson
Attacker81'
6.5
28
Marc Gual
Marc Gual Attacker
6.5
81
Ismail Bekbolat
Ismail Bekbolat Attacker
6.86
20
Erkin Tapalov
Erkin Tapalov
Defender69'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Tripping / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Holding / 4th Yellowcard
88'
86'
Event
Olzhas Baybek Adilet Sadybekov
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Lev Kurgin Luís Mata
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Azamat Tuyakbaev Jorginho
10th Substitution
82'
Event
Penalty / 1st Penalty
81'
Event
Edmilson Oiva Jukkola
7th Substitution
Event
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
79'
Event
Slobodan Babic Marko Mrvaljevic
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Balsa Toskovic Jovan Cadjenovic
6th Substitution
75'
69'
Event
Erkin Tapalov Ismail Bekbolat
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Roughing / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Aleksandar Boljevic Vasilije Cavor
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Mamadou Camara Marko Simun
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Kenroy Campbell Petar Anicic
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Holding / 2nd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Roughing / 1st Yellowcard
25'

Match Commentary

89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jaakko Oksanen.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jaakko Oksanen.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Deni Hocko.
86
Update Update
Azamat Tuyakbaev replaces Jorginho.
86
Update Update
On comes Olzhas Baibek, off goes Adilet Sadybekov.
83
Substitution Substitution
Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho is substituted off for Oiva Jukkola.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Jorginho scores, making it 0-2.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Andrija Raznatovic.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Update Update
Slobodan Babic comes on for Marko Mrvaljevic.
75
Update Update
Balša Tošković comes on for Andrija Raznatovic.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Update Update
Erkin Tapalov is on, and Ismail Bekbolat is off.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ismail Bekbolat scores, making it 0-1.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Andrija Raznatovic.
56
Update Update
Mamadou Camara is on, and Marko Simun is off.
56
Update Update
Aleksandar Boljevic is on, and Vasilije Cavor is off.
46
Update Update
Kenroy Campbell comes on for Petar Anicic.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Aleksa Golubovic.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Marko Simun.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Wojciech Myc.

CONCLUSION

Kairat completed a professional away performance to secure a 0-2 victory and close out the tie on aggregate. Sutjeska began the second leg level at halftime but could not overcome the loss of a player after the interval. Even possession statistics showed both teams had comparable control yet the numerical imbalance proved decisive. Kairat maintained composure and added the goals required to advance. The result confirmed the away side as the stronger finisher across both legs. Sutjeska will reflect on the red card as a turning point that limited their options. Kairat now progress with momentum intact from the two-legged contest.