Sturm Graz vs Hearts preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Merkur Arena Tue, 21 Jul - 6:30 PM
Champions League
Sturm GrazSTU
4 0
HeartsHEA
Full Time Tue, 21 Jul 6:30 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Jürgen Heil - 59'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Sturm Graz hosted Hearts in the first leg of their two-legged knockout tie and produced a dominant display to win 4-0. The home side took a 1-0 lead into the interval and added three more goals after the break despite Hearts controlling 67 percent of possession. Sturm Graz created 2.77 expected goals while limiting the visitors to 1.43, resulting in a differential of 1.34. Although Hearts entered as the stronger side on paper, they could not translate territorial dominance into clear scoring opportunities. The clean sheet and clinical finishing leave Sturm Graz in a commanding position ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Sturm Graz 4-0 Hearts. Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with expected performance levels throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: The final result stayed consistent with the expected goals figures recorded on the night.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved aligned with pre-match market projections for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: Sturm Graz surpassed xG expectations by scoring four goals against 2.77 projected.
  • Event impact: The opening goal before halftime shaped the remainder of the contest decisively.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were shown so the match proceeded without any distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Bogár
G. Bogár
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
P. Kobor
P. Kobor
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Georgiou
T. Georgiou
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Berke
B. Berke
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
VS
Hearts W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sturm Graz
52.21%
Draw
25.12%
Away Hearts
22.67%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sturm Graz
-41.37%
Draw
+21.48%
Hearts
+19.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.65
74.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
Hearts
Power Score
72.65
74.42
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
178
145

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sturm Graz Hearts

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hearts
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
65.30
33.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.51
65.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sturm Graz +2.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Hearts -2.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Hearts
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sturm Graz
vs
Hearts
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sturm Graz Hearts
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
50%
36%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.39 vs -0.52
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sturm Graz Hearts
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
36%
50%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.52 vs -1.39
Sturm Graz
Hearts
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sturm Graz
vs
Hearts
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sturm Graz Hearts
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sturm Graz 0.65
Hearts 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sturm Graz Hearts
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sturm Graz 0.00
Hearts 0.13
Sturm Graz
Hearts
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STU had peak pressure around 55'.
  • STU started the game with stronger pressure.
STU Pressure HEA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STU reached the top pressure at 55' (100.00).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 21, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gergő Bogár
Peter Kobor
Theodoros Georgiou
Balazs Berke

Statistics

Possession
STU
39%
HEA
61%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 4
9 Shots 7
31 Dangerous attacks 69
33 Possession 67
4 Corners 12
13 Free kicks 18
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 10
5 Substitutions 7
21 Throwins 29
2 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Assists 0
21 Dribble Attempts 22
8 Successful Dribbles 7
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32

Attacking

83 Attacks 96
3 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

58 Long Passes 72
222 Passes 442
145 Successful Passes 352
65 Successful Passes Percentage 80
15 Key Passes 12
15 Successful Long Passes 42
26 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58

Defensive

6 Saves 2
27 Tackles 22
11 Interceptions 6
67 Duels Won 65

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 24
2 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
18 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Gergő Bogár

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
8.12
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
8.45
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
6.97
18
Emran Soglo
Emran Soglo Defender
7.58
23
Arjan Malic
Arjan Malic
Defender79'
6.42
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil Defender
8.27
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic (C) Midfielder
7.57
19
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl Midfielder
6.1
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili
Midfielder46'
7.48
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Midfielder
8.41
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
8.1
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso
Midfielder71'
6.69
17
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Szymon Wlodarczyk Attacker
6.52
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo
Attacker70'
6.16
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
5.99
44
Nelson Weiper
Nelson Weiper
Attacker71'
6.59
Referee : Gergő Bogár

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
5.92
2
Christian Borchgrevink
Christian Borchgrevink Defender
5.91
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart Defender
6.59
18
Harry Milne
Harry Milne (C) Defender
5.85
64
Malachi Fagan-Walcott
Malachi Fagan-Walcott Defender
6.54
6
Oisin McEntee
Oisin McEntee Midfielder
6.86
22
Tómas Bent Magnússon
Tómas Bent Magnússon
Midfielder84'
6.91
7
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
5.98
29
Sabah Kerjota
Sabah Kerjota
Attacker59'
6.87
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Midfielder
6.79
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal Midfielder
6.28
12
Tom Renaud
Tom Renaud
Midfielder75'
6.73
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
6.38
19
Sabri Guendouz
Sabri Guendouz
Attacker59'
7.27
11
Pierre Landry Kaboré
Pierre Landry Kaboré Attacker
6.44
77
Amadou Ba-Sy
Amadou Ba-Sy
Attacker59'
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Amadou Ba-Sy
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Tómas Bent Magnússon → Oisin McEntee
10th Substitution
Event
Arjan Malic → Emran Soglo
9th Substitution
79'
75'
Event
Tom Renaud → Blair Spittal
8th Substitution
Event
Ryan Fosso → Jacob Peter Hödl
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Nelson Weiper → Seedy Jatta
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Axel Kayombo → Szymon Wlodarczyk
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Jürgen Heil
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
59'
59'
Event
Sabri Guendouz → Alexandros Kyziridis
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Sabah Kerjota → Calvin Miller
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Amadou Ba-Sy → Pierre Landry Kaboré
4th Substitution
Event
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Luca Weinhandl
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
53'
Event
Jeyland Mitchell
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
50'
47'
Event
Oisin McEntee
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Otar Kiteishvili → Simon Seidl
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Penalty disallowed
39'
Event
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Header / 1st Goal
4'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 4-0.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bent Magnusson attempts a header but misses the shot.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Claudio Braga receives a yellow card.
83
Update Update
On Tomas Bent Magnusson, Off Oisin McEntee.
81
Attempt Attempt
Tom Renaud takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Sabri Guendouz with his right foot is saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Amadou Ba Sy takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Arjan Malic comes on for Emran Soglo.
75
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Harry Milne with his left foot is blocked.
75
Update Update
Tom Renaud is on, and Blair Spittal is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
Jamie McCarthy takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Attempt Attempt
Amadou Ba Sy takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Amadou Ba Sy takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Fosso takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jamie McCarthy Head Shot Missed
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Update Update
Ryan Fosso replaces Jacob Hodl.
70
Update Update
Nelson Weiper is on, and Seedy Jatta is off.
68
Substitution Substitution
Axel Kayombo is substituted for Szymon Wlodarczyk.
64
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a left-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Oisin McEntee with another body part, but it's saved.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Calvin Miller is replaced by Sabah Kerjota.
59
Update Update
Amadou Ba Sy comes on for Pierre Kabore.
59
Update Update
Sabri Guendouz is on, and Alexandros Kyziridis is off.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Jurgen Heil with his right foot results in a goal.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jurgen Heil scores to make it 4-0, assisted by Luca Weinhandl.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Attempt Attempt
Seedy Jatta takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Jon Gorenc Stankovic.
55
Attempt Attempt
Emran Soglo takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
53
Attempt Attempt
Calvin Miller takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jurgen Heil scores, making it 4-0.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jon Gorenc Stankovic.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-0.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Jeyland Mitchell scores with a right-footed shot.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Otar Kiteishvili takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jeyland Mitchell scores, making it 2-0.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oisin McEntee receives a yellow card.
45
Update Update
First half ends with the score at 1-0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Update Update
VAR decision results in the cancellation of the penalty awarded to Szymon Wlodarczyk.
35
Attempt Attempt
Szymon Wlodarczyk takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexandros Kyziridis with his right foot is saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexandros Kyziridis with his right foot, but it misses the target.
32
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
32
Update Update
Offside.
29
Update Update
Offside.
28
Attempt Attempt
Jeyland Mitchell takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Seedy Jatta takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Pierre Kabore with his left foot is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Jeyland Mitchell takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Seedy Jatta takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
10
Attempt Attempt
Jeyland Mitchell takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Update Update
Offside.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Jon Gorenc Stankovic takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jon Gorenc Stankovic scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Jeyland Mitchell.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Attempt Attempt
Christian Dahle Borchgrevink takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Gergo Bogar.

CONCLUSION

Sturm Graz claimed a comprehensive 4-0 victory that sets them up well for the second leg. Hearts enjoyed the majority of possession yet created little of note in front of goal. The expected goals data supported the final margin and confirmed that the hosts made the most of their chances. With no cards issued the contest remained eleven versus eleven from start to finish. Sturm Graz now hold a strong advantage and will look to manage the return leg carefully. Hearts must improve their attacking output if they are to recover any ground in the tie.