Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Merkur Arena Tue, 11 Aug - 6:30 PM
Champions League
Sturm GrazSTU
0 1
FenerbahçeFEN
Full Time Tue, 11 Aug 6:30 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 3
|
Goal
Talisca - 66' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sturm Graz 0–1 Fenerbahçe. The result saw Fenerbahçe take the points. Fenerbahçe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Sturm Graz 1.2 – 2 Fenerbahçe. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Sturm Graz 0-1 Fenerbahçe. Fenerbahçe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Hernández Hernández
A. Hernández Hernández
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Naranjo Pérez
J. Naranjo Pérez
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Cerdán Aguilar
M. Cerdán Aguilar
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Quintero González
A. Quintero González
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
VS
Fenerbahçe İ. Kartal
İ. Kartal
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.33
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fenerbahçe Rank: 87 L
Hearts Rank: 75 W
Hearts Rank: 76 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sturm Graz Rank: 76 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 70 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 69 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sturm Graz
23.95%
Draw
22.04%
Away Fenerbahçe
54.01%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sturm Graz
+23.19%
Draw
+16.42%
Fenerbahçe
-39.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.95
87.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
Power Score
74.95
87.22
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
164
32

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sturm Graz Fenerbahçe

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fenerbahçe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fenerbahçe
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.90
24.60
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.60
44.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sturm Graz — Efficiency Index
vs
Fenerbahçe — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sturm Graz
vs
Fenerbahçe
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sturm Graz Fenerbahçe
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
43%
49%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.52 vs +0.05
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sturm Graz Fenerbahçe
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
49%
43%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.05 vs -0.52
Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sturm Graz
vs
Fenerbahçe
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sturm Graz Fenerbahçe
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sturm Graz 0.28
Fenerbahçe 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sturm Graz Fenerbahçe
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sturm Graz 0.04
Fenerbahçe 0.00
Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STU had peak pressure around 39'.
  • FEN started the game with stronger pressure.
STU Pressure FEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STU reached the top pressure at 39' (69.51).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sturm Graz STU Home
3 matches
Fenerbahçe FEN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
2
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0.32
xG
1.50
1.50
xGA
0.32

Data last updated: 2026-08-12T00:03:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 11, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 3
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández
José Enrique Naranjo Pérez
Marcos Cerdán Aguilar
Alejandro Quintero González

Statistics

Possession
STU
52%
FEN
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 4
8 Shots 3
69 Dangerous attacks 26
50 Possession 50
7 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
4 Goal Kicks 10
5 Substitutions 5
23 Throwins 24
31 Dribble Attempts 15
12 Successful Dribbles 6
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40

Attacking

129 Attacks 83
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

47 Long Passes 59
385 Passes 398
313 Successful Passes 318
81 Successful Passes Percentage 80
14 Key Passes 8
27 Successful Long Passes 21
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

Defensive

5 Saves 2
26 Tackles 28
11 Interceptions 11
64 Duels Won 65

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 10
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
7.19
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
7.35
18
Emran Soglo
Emran Soglo Defender
7.61
21
Petar Petrovic
Petar Petrovic Defender
6.26
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller
Defender79'
6.65
23
Arjan Malic
Arjan Malic Defender
6.58
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil
Midfielder61'
6.76
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic (C) Midfielder
7.55
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso
Midfielder70'
6.64
19
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl Midfielder
6.81
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Midfielder
6.95
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
7.04
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo Attacker
6.7
44
Nelson Weiper
Nelson Weiper
Attacker61'
6.58
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.44
26
Belmin Beganovic
Belmin Beganovic
Attacker61'
6.12
Referee : Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Starting XI ▼

34
Mert Günok
Mert Günok Goalkeeper
7.21
3
Archie Brown
Archie Brown Defender
7.35
15
Nathan Aké
Nathan Aké Defender
7.1
27
Nélson Semedo
Nélson Semedo Defender
6.78
18
Mert Müldür
Mert Müldür
Defender62'
6.47
37
Milan Škriniar
Milan Škriniar (C) Defender
7.65
6
Mattéo Guendouzi
Mattéo Guendouzi Midfielder
7.15
9
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Kerem Aktürkoğlu Midfielder
6.7
10
Marco Asensio
Marco Asensio Midfielder
6.54
7
Fred
Fred
Midfielder63'
6.58
11
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Midfielder
6.35
70
Oğuz Aydın
Oğuz Aydın
Attacker63'
6.53
91
N'Golo Kanté
N'Golo Kanté Midfielder
6.91
5
İsmail Yüksek
İsmail Yüksek
Midfielder73'
6.69
94
Talisca
Talisca Attacker
8.04
19
Vedat Muriqi
Vedat Muriqi
Attacker77'
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Jeyland Mitchell
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Fabio Ingolitsch
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Paul Koller → Petar Petrovic
10th Substitution
79'
77'
Event
Vedat Muriqi → Talisca
9th Substitution
73'
Event
İsmail Yüksek → N'Golo Kanté
8th Substitution
Event
Ryan Fosso → Jon Gorenc Stankovic
7th Substitution
70'
66'
Event
Talisca
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
63'
Event
Oğuz Aydın → Mason Greenwood
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Fred → Marco Asensio
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Mert Müldür → Nélson Semedo
4th Substitution
Event
Belmin Beganovic → Seedy Jatta
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Jürgen Heil → Arjan Malic
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Nelson Weiper → Axel Kayombo
3rd Substitution
61'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Archie Brown
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
40'
Event
Nélson Semedo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Emran Soglo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Kerem Aktürkoğlu.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Jeyland Mitchell.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Attempt Attempt
Ismail Yuksek takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Paul Koller comes on for Petar Petrovic.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
Attempt Attempt
Belmin Beganovic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
73
Update Update
Ismail Yuksek replaces Ngolo Kante.
70
Update Update
On comes Ryan Fosso, off goes Jon Gorenc Stankovic.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca scores from the penalty spot, making it 0-1.
63
Update Update
Frederico Rodrigues Santos is on, and Marco Asensio Willemsen is off.
63
Substitution Substitution
Frederico Rodrigues Santos is substituted off for Marco Asensio Willemsen.
62
Update Update
Oguz Aydin comes on for Mason Greenwood.
61
Update Update
Mert Muldur comes on for Nelson Cabral Semedo.
61
Update Update
On Jurgen Heil, off Arjan Malic.
61
Update Update
Belmin Beganovic comes on for Seedy Jatta.
60
Update Update
On comes Nelson Weiper, off goes Axel Kayombo.
59
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a left-footed shot but misses.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Kerem Aktürkoğlu with his left foot is saved.
46
Update Update
Offside.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Archie Brown.
44
Attempt Attempt
Ngolo Kante takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Archie Brown.
42
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kayombo attempts a header but misses the shot.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Nelson Cabral Semedo.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Nelson Cabral Semedo.
38
Attempt Attempt
Jon Gorenc Stankovic takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kayombo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Simon Seidl takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Simon Seidl takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kayombo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Emran Soglo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Seedy Jatta attempts a header but misses the shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Luca Weinhandl's right-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Kerem Aktürkoğlu takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Petar Petrovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Souza Conceicao Talisca takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Marco Asensio Willemsen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kayombo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Alejandro Jose Hernandez.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Sturm Graz 0-1 Fenerbahçe. Structural assessment: Fenerbahçe exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.