Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien preview
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena
Round 7 ·
Championship Round
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 28
CONTEXT
Sturm Graz hosted Austria Wien in the Austrian Bundesliga, finishing with a 1-1 draw despite the home team's clear dominance. Sturm Graz controlled 61% possession against 39%, creating more opportunities but failing to capitalize fully. The first half ended 0-0, with both sides evenly matched at halftime. Goals arrived in the second half, leveling the score and denying Sturm Graz a victory as the stronger team. No red cards disrupted play, and no major second-half adjustments were evident. This outcome showed a moderate 8% structural deviation for Sturm Graz, with efficiency in line with expectations. Market alignment confirmed the draw's consistency with pre-match assessments, though missing xG data limits precise performance evaluation. The result highlights Sturm Graz's possession edge not converting to wins, underscoring balanced defensive efforts from Austria Wien.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Sturm Graz showed moderate 8% structural deviation by drawing as the stronger team.
-
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
-
xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment with outcome.
-
Market alignment: Draw outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to absent data.
-
Event impact: No significant events or adjustments altered match flow.
-
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Ebner
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.31
M. Höfler
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.31
A. Gutschi
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.31
A. Harkam
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.29
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.31
1.42
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
LASK Linz
Rank:
D
LASK Linz
Rank:
D
Hartberg
Rank:
D
SK Rapid
Rank:
W
Salzburg
Rank:
D
Austria Wien
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg
Rank:
L
Salzburg
Rank:
L
SK Rapid
Rank:
D
LASK Linz
Rank:
L
Hartberg
Rank:
W
Sturm Graz
Rank:
L
26
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 21 - 30
30
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Sturm Graz
4.42%
Draw
92%
Austria Wien
3.57%
Movement
Changes since opening
Sturm Graz
-0.05%
Draw
+0.07%
Austria Wien
-0.04%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.09
17.38
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
Power Score
27.09
17.38
League Position
1
5
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Sturm Graz
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Austria Wien
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Sturm Graz Austria Wien
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Sturm Graz
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Austria Wien
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Sturm Graz
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Austria Wien
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.77
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Sturm Graz
+0.73
Efficiency Index
vs
Austria Wien
-0.73
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Sturm Graz
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Austria Wien
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Sturm Graz
vs
Austria Wien
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Sturm Graz
0.41
Austria Wien
0.32
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Sturm Graz
0.05
Austria Wien
0.03
Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- FAK had peak pressure around 21'.
- STU started the game with stronger pressure.
STU Pressure
FAK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
FAK reached the top pressure at 21' (80.90).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 77 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Sturm Graz
STU
Home
77
matches
Austria Wien
FAK
Away
Match Record
26
Wins
30
21
Draws
21
30
Losses
26
Goals
105
Goals Scored
104
104
Goals Conceded
105
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
2.71
xG
2.21
2.21
xGA
2.71
Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:06:43+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-1-4-2
Match Formation
3-4-2-1
24 T. Plavotic
15 A. Dragović
28 P. Wiesinger
17 T. Lee
16 Lee Kang-Hee
26 R. Ranftl
20 S. Saljic
30 M. Fischer
14 K. Boateng
General Information
Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 7 · Championship Round
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Stefan Ebner
Martin Höfler
Amina Gutschi
Alexander Harkam
Next Match
Sturm Graz
vs
Salzburg
League: Admiral Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 3:00 PM
Venue: Red Bull Arena
Austria Wien
vs
Hartberg
League: Admiral Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 12:30 PM
Venue: Generali Arena
Statistics
Possession
STU
59%
FAK
41%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
1
3
Big Chances Created
4
4
Shots
3
39
Dangerous attacks
22
61
Possession
39
4
Corners
3
17
Free kicks
12
2
Yellow Cards
2
Match Overview
1
Assists
1
4
Substitutions
5
0
Hit Woodwork
1
0
Injuries
1
7
Successful Dribbles
6
35
Successful Dribbles Percentage
43
13
Goal Attempts
2
20
Dribble Attempts
14
57
Ball Safe
59
7
Goal Kicks
7
37
Throwins
29
Attacking
2
Big Chances Missed
3
72
Attacks
55
Possession
12
Key Passes
4
73
Successful Passes Percentage
57
24
Successful Long Passes
20
418
Passes
259
306
Successful Passes
148
59
Long Passes
71
41
Successful Long Passes Percentage
28
Defensive
16
Tackles
22
70
Duels Won
55
5
Interceptions
14
2
Saves
4
Build-up
15
Total Crosses
12
5
Accurate Crosses
3
Discipline
4
Offsides
3
12
Fouls
17
Lineup
Referee :
Stefan Ebner
Manager ▼
F. Ingolitsch
Coach
Starting XI ▼
9
Rory Wilson
6.72Attacker81'
77
Maurice Malone
Attacker
6.75 Substitutes ▼
40
Matteo Bignetti
Goalkeeper
6.63 35
Niklas Geyrhofer
Defender
6.38 25
Stefan Hierländer
Midfielder
6.52 34
Bastian Tim Maierhofer
Midfielder
Referee :
Stefan Ebner
Manager ▼
S. Helm
Coach
Starting XI ▼
28
Philipp Wiesinger
Defender
6.82 Substitutes ▼
13
Lukas Wedl
Goalkeeper
37
Daniel Nnodim
Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+3'
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
8th Substitution
90+1'
9th Substitution
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
85'
Rory Wilson → Emir Karic
7th Substitution
81'
6th Substitution
80'
80'
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
77'
5th Substitution
77'
4th Substitution
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
70'
3rd Substitution
68'
2nd Substitution
67'
64'
1st Substitution
54'
Header / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
The 1-1 draw encapsulated a match where Sturm Graz's 61% possession superiority met Austria Wien's resolute defense, resulting in a goalless first half and late parity. As the stronger side, Sturm Graz's moderate deviation reflects missed chances, with efficiencies holding steady. Absent xG and red cards, the game stayed structurally sound, aligning with market views. This point denies Sturm Graz momentum while bolstering Austria Wien's survival bid, emphasizing tactical discipline over dominance in a competitive Bundesliga encounter.
