Stjarnan vs Ilves preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Samsung völlurinn
Europa Conference League
StjarnanSTJ
1 0
IlvesILV
Full Time
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Stjarnan welcomed Ilves for the opening leg of their two-match knockout encounter and claimed a slender 1-0 win. The contest stayed level at 0-0 through the opening period as both sides adopted measured approaches. Stjarnan controlled 56 percent of possession while Ilves managed 44 percent. The home side, identified as the stronger team beforehand, delivered the decisive strike after the interval to secure victory. No dismissals occurred on either side. A notable 58 percent deviation was recorded in favor of Stjarnan, yet overall efficiency stayed in line with expectations and market signals aligned with the result. The narrow margin leaves the tie finely balanced heading into the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves. Stjarnan showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with overall team performances throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remained undetermined because expected goals figures were not available.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated owing to missing underlying metrics.
  • Event impact: The single second-half goal proved decisive in shaping the final scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were shown, so red card distortion had no influence on proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Johnson
O. Johnson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Wilde
R. Wilde
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Robertsson
S. Robertsson
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Östling
J. Östling
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Stjarnan J. Hauksson
J. Hauksson
VS
Ilves Camilo Speranza Borde
Camilo Speranza Borde
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Víkingur Rank: D
Víkingur Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Differdange 03 Rank: W
Differdange 03 Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Stjarnan
42.03%
Draw
24.14%
Away Ilves
33.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Stjarnan
-53.61%
Draw
+20.42%
Ilves
+33.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.67
36.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Stjarnan
Ilves
Power Score
36.67
36.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Stjarnan — Opponent-weighted form score
Ilves — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Stjarnan Ilves

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Stjarnan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ilves

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Stjarnan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ilves
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.70
17.84
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.84
21.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Stjarnan +0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Ilves -0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Stjarnan
Ilves
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Stjarnan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ilves
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Stjarnan Ilves
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Stjarnan Ilves
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Stjarnan
Ilves
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Stjarnan
vs
Ilves
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Stjarnan Ilves
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Stjarnan 0.14
Ilves 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Stjarnan Ilves
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Stjarnan 0.00
Ilves 0.02
Stjarnan
Ilves
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STJ had peak pressure around 52'.
  • STJ started the game with stronger pressure.
STJ Pressure ILV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STJ reached the top pressure at 52' (80.04).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Samsung völlurinn
Capacity
1440
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oscar Johnson
Robin Wilde
Sebastian Robertsson
Joakim Östling

Statistics

Possession
STJ
55%
ILV
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
4 Shots 5
63 Dangerous attacks 37
56 Possession 44
8 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 21
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

54 Ball Safe 50
7 Goal Attempts 6
4 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 21

Attacking

70 Attacks 60

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Oscar Johnson

Starting XI ▼

12
Árni Snaer Ólafsson
Árni Snaer Ólafsson Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Gustav Kjeldsen
Gustav Kjeldsen Defender
6.5
4
Thorri Mar Thórisson
Thorri Mar Thórisson Defender
6.5
14
Bjarki Hauksson
Bjarki Hauksson
Defender66'
6.5
6
Sindri Thór Ingimarsson
Sindri Thór Ingimarsson Defender
6.5
32
Örvar Logi Örvarsson
Örvar Logi Örvarsson Defender
6.5
7
Örvar Eggertsson
Örvar Eggertsson Midfielder
6.5
94
Árni Vilhjálmsson
Árni Vilhjálmsson
Attacker83'
6.5
8
Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson
Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson Midfielder
6.5
11
Birnir Snaer Ingason
Birnir Snaer Ingason Midfielder
6.5
18
Gudmundur Baldvin Nökkvason
Gudmundur Baldvin Nökkvason Midfielder
6.69
29
Alex Thór Hauksson
Alex Thór Hauksson
Midfielder90+5'
23
Benedikt Warén
Benedikt Warén Midfielder
6.5
10
Daníel Finns Matthíasson
Daníel Finns Matthíasson
Midfielder83'
6.45
22
Emil Atlason
Emil Atlason (C) Attacker
6.46
Referee : Oscar Johnson

Starting XI ▼

12
Faris Krkalic
Faris Krkalic Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Matias Rale
Matias Rale Defender
6.26
15
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki
Midfielder85'
6.5
4
O. Pettersson
O. Pettersson Defender
6.5
24
Ville Kumpu
Ville Kumpu
Defender71'
6.26
5
Sauli Väisänen
Sauli Väisänen (C) Defender
6.5
19
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss
Defender71'
6.26
16
Tatu Miettunen
Tatu Miettunen Defender
6.26
7
Joona Veteli
Joona Veteli Midfielder
6.5
22
Oskari Multala
Oskari Multala
Midfielder58'
6.37
13
Kalle Wallius
Kalle Wallius Midfielder
6.37
14
Anton Popovitch
Anton Popovitch Midfielder
6.33
28
Jesse Kilo
Jesse Kilo Midfielder
6.5
10
Roope Riski
Roope Riski
Attacker58'
6.46
30
Jardell Kanga
Jardell Kanga Midfielder
6.37
9
Teemu Hytönen
Teemu Hytönen Attacker
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alex Thór Hauksson → Gudmundur Baldvin Nökkvason
9th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Daníel Finns Matthíasson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
85'
Event
Lauri Ala-Myllymäki → Matias Rale
8th Substitution
Event
Gudmundur Baldvin Nökkvason
Field Goal / 1st Goal
84'
Event
Daníel Finns Matthíasson → Benedikt Warén
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Árni Vilhjálmsson → Örvar Eggertsson
7th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Anton Popovitch
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
Event
Bamba Abdoul Goudouss → Sauli Väisänen
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Ville Kumpu → O. Pettersson
5th Substitution
Event
Bjarki Hauksson → Thorri Mar Thórisson
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Emil Atlason
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
64'
58'
Event
Oskari Multala → Joona Veteli
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Roope Riski → Jesse Kilo
2nd Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alex Thor Hauksson comes on for Gudmundur Nokkvason.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Daniel Finns Matthiasson.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Update Update
Lauri Ala Myllymaki comes on for Matias Rale.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gudmundur Nokkvason scores, making it 1-0.
83
Update Update
On comes Daniel Finns Matthiasson, and Benedikt Waren goes off.
83
Update Update
Arni Vilhjalmsson is on, and Orvar Eggertsson is off.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Update Update
On Goudouss Bamba, off Sauli Vaisanen.
71
Update Update
On Ville Kumpu, off Oliver Pettersson.
67
Update Update
Bjarki Hauksson is on, and Thorri Thorisson is off.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Emil Atlason.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Update Update
Roope Riski is on, and Jesse Kilo is off.
58
Update Update
Oskari Multala comes on for Joona Veteli.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Oscar Johnson.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves. Structural assessment: Stjarnan exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.