St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Millerntor-Stadion
Bundesliga
St. PauliPAU
VfL WolfsburgWOB
KICKOFF :
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

St. Pauli welcome VfL Wolfsburg to Millerntor-Stadion in a crucial Bundesliga regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 18th in the standings, the hosts face 16th-placed visitors who hold a clear edge with a power score of 74.93 against St. Pauli's 71.69, translating to a 3.2-point advantage. Both teams enter with identical form scores of 0 and no recent outing details, suggesting a lack of momentum for either side. This bottom-table clash carries high stakes, as points are vital for survival. Wolfsburg are rated the stronger team overall, but St. Pauli's home atmosphere could inspire an upset. Advanced metrics like efficiency and set pieces are unavailable due to missing xG data, forcing reliance on power ratings and projections. Expect a tactical battle where small details may decide the outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural: VfL Wolfsburg holds a 3.2-point power advantage over St. Pauli and is rated the stronger team.
  • Form: Both St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg have a form score of 0 with no last outing data available.
  • Squad: St. Pauli are positioned 18th in the Bundesliga while VfL Wolfsburg sit 16th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not provided for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats for both teams use low-confidence proxy data with no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG data is unavailable, limiting advanced performance analysis.
  • Market: St. Pauli 34.5% (Δ+0.1%) | Draw 25.7% (Δ-0.1%) | VfL Wolfsburg 39.9% (Δ+0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
VS
VfL Wolfsburg D. Hecking
D. Hecking
0.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.78
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 L
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 L
Heidenheim Rank: 70 L
FC Köln Rank: 75 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 75 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
SC Freiburg Rank: 82 D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 D
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 4 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Pauli
34.49%
Draw
25.65%
Away VfL Wolfsburg
39.86%

Movement

Changes since opening
St. Pauli
+0.06%
Draw
-0.14%
VfL Wolfsburg
+0.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.69
74.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Pauli
VfL Wolfsburg
Power Score
71.69
74.93
League Position
18
16
Global Rank
174
117

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
VfL Wolfsburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Pauli VfL Wolfsburg

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
K. Grabara
1 K. Grabara
K. Koulierakis
4 K. Koulierakis
D. Vavro
3 D. Vavro
J. Belocian
6 J. Belocian
J. Mæhle
21 J. Mæhle
C. Dannemann Eriksen
24 C. Dannemann Eriksen
V. de Souza Costa
5 V. de Souza Costa
P. Wimmer
39 P. Wimmer
S. Kumbedi Nseke
26 S. Kumbedi Nseke
A. Daghim
11 A. Daghim
D. Pejcinovic
17 D. Pejcinovic

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion
Capacity
29546
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
6.81
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
6.81
23
Louis Oppie
Louis Oppie Midfielder
6.62
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
6.64
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Midfielder
6.53
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars Centre Forward
6.59
8
Eric Smith
Eric Smith Centre Back
6.85
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine Central Midfield
6.8
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Right Back
6.72
21
Lars Ritzka
Lars Ritzka Left Back
6.6
24
Connor Metcalfe
Connor Metcalfe Central Midfield
6.54

Starting XI ▼

1
Kamil Grabara
Kamil Grabara Goalkeeper
6.91
26
Saël Kumbedi
Saël Kumbedi Midfielder
6.56
21
Joakim Maehle
Joakim Maehle Midfielder
6.71
11
Adam Daghim
Adam Daghim Attacker
6.69
17
Dzenan Pejcinovic
Dzenan Pejcinovic Attacker
6.77
6
Jeanuël Belocian
Jeanuël Belocian Right Back
6.74
39
Patrick Wimmer
Patrick Wimmer Central Midfield
6.76
4
Konstantinos Koulierakis
Konstantinos Koulierakis Left Back
6.76
3
Denis Vavro
Denis Vavro Centre Back
6.66
5
Vinicius de Souza Costa
Vinicius de Souza Costa Central Midfield
6.77
24
Christian Eriksen
Christian Eriksen Central Midfield
7.02

CONCLUSION

VfL Wolfsburg's power score superiority positions them favorably against struggling St. Pauli in this relegation six-pointer at Millerntor-Stadion. The 3.2-point edge underscores their structural strength, while both sides' zero form scores hint at a cagey affair. Home advantage gives St. Pauli a fighting chance to exploit any visitor lapses, but Wolfsburg's higher rating suggests better poise under pressure. Projections reflect this balance, with Wolfsburg at 40.7%, St. Pauli 33.5%, and draw 25.8%. Without detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, the match hinges on execution and mentality. Wolfsburg appear equipped to claim a narrow victory and boost their standings.