St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth preview

Germany flag 2026/2027 2. Bundesliga, Germany
Millerntor-Stadion Sun, 9 Aug - 11:30 AM
2. Bundesliga
St. PauliPAU
1 – 1
SpVgg Greuther FürthGRF
Full Time Sun, 9 Aug 11:30 AM
Round 1 Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

St. Pauli hosted SpVgg Greuther Fürth in a fixture that finished 1-1 following a scoreless opening period. The home side controlled 58 percent of possession and registered 2.1 expected goals while the visitors operated at 42 percent possession with 1.15 expected goals. Although St. Pauli created the clearer opportunities the match concluded level after each team scored once in the second half. SpVgg Greuther Fürth carried the stronger team designation yet could not convert that status into a victory. No dismissals occurred on either side leaving both teams at full strength for the entire contest. The even halftime score of 0-0 produced an open second period in which the single goal apiece reflected the narrow margins throughout.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: St. Pauli 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth. SpVgg Greuther Fürth showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with overall team performances.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was not aligned with the expected goals differential favoring St. Pauli.
  • Market alignment: The result was aligned with market expectations despite the scoreline.
  • xG expectations: St. Pauli generated 2.1 expected goals compared to 1.15 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
  • Event impact: The draw occurred without any major disruptive events in the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued resulting in no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
H. Osmers
H. Osmers
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
F. Heft
F. Heft
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Martenstein
J. Martenstein
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Benen
L. Benen
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
St. Pauli M. Rapp
M. Rapp
VS
SpVgg Greuther Fürth H. Vogel
H. Vogel
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fortuna Düsseldorf Rank: 72 W
Hertha BSC Rank: 75 L
Nürnberg Rank: 75 D
VfL Bochum 1848 Rank: 74 L
Darmstadt 98 Rank: 74 W
Preußen Münster Rank: 67 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
42.1
69.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Pauli
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Power Score
42.1
69.48
League Position
9
10
Global Rank
187
295

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Pauli SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Pauli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.19
39.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.05
38.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Pauli -0.08 Efficiency Index
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth +0.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Pauli
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Pauli
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Pauli SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
39%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.83 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Pauli SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
0%
39%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.00 vs -0.83
St. Pauli
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
St. Pauli
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Pauli SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
St. Pauli 0.22
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.54
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Pauli SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
St. Pauli 0.04
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.01
St. Pauli
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PAU had peak pressure around 71'.
  • PAU started the game with stronger pressure.
PAU Pressure GRF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PAU reached the top pressure at 71' (100.00).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 09, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2026/2027 2. Bundesliga, Germany · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion
Capacity
29546
Attendance
29218
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Harm Osmers
Florian Heft
Julius Martenstein
Lukas Benen

Statistics

Possession
PAU
56%
GRF
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 5
83 Dangerous attacks 28
58 Possession 42
9 Corners 2
5 Free kicks 4
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

40 Ball Safe 64
6 Goal Kicks 9
9 Goal Attempts 13
4 Substitutions 5
26 Throwins 17
11 Successful Headers 6
1 Assists 1
9 Dribble Attempts 16
5 Successful Dribbles 9
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56

Attacking

108 Attacks 74
4 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

41 Long Passes 48
516 Passes 392
446 Successful Passes 327
86 Successful Passes Percentage 83
13 Key Passes 13
19 Successful Long Passes 21
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

Defensive

6 Saves 5
13 Tackles 9
8 Interceptions 11
33 Duels Won 28

Build-up

35 Total Crosses 8
9 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

7 Offsides 2
4 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Harm Osmers

Starting XI ▼

1
Ben Voll
Ben Voll Goalkeeper
7.55
4
David Nemeth
David Nemeth (C) Defender
6.97
6
Marcus Mathisen
Marcus Mathisen Defender
8.45
15
Tomoya Ando
Tomoya Ando Defender
6.75
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
7.39
2
Rony Jansson
Rony Jansson
Defender79'
6.51
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
6.77
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Midfielder
7.18
8
Eric Smith
Eric Smith
Midfielder85'
6.59
23
Louis Oppie
Louis Oppie Midfielder
6.83
14
Erik Ahlstrand
Erik Ahlstrand
Midfielder85'
6.38
10
Branimir Hrgota
Branimir Hrgota Attacker
7.51
18
Taichi Hara
Taichi Hara Attacker
6.34
26
Ricky-Jade Jones
Ricky-Jade Jones
Attacker73'
6.65
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars Attacker
6.6
Referee : Harm Osmers

Starting XI ▼

1
Florian Hellstern
Florian Hellstern Goalkeeper
7.24
22
Jannis Heuer
Jannis Heuer Defender
7.12
23
Jannik Dehm
Jannik Dehm Defender
6.97
2
Lukas Reich
Lukas Reich
Defender87'
27
Luca Itter
Luca Itter Defender
6.36
29
Krisztián Keresztes
Krisztián Keresztes Defender
7.3
6
Sacha Bansé
Sacha Bansé Midfielder
6.77
28
Doni Arifi
Doni Arifi
Midfielder76'
6.52
8
Shinta Appelkamp
Shinta Appelkamp Midfielder
7.38
21
Mika Wallentowitz
Mika Wallentowitz
Midfielder87'
10
Ole Pohlmann
Ole Pohlmann Midfielder
6.42
11
Aaron Keller
Aaron Keller
Midfielder70'
6.6
13
Paul Will
Paul Will Midfielder
7.14
7
Dennis Srbeny
Dennis Srbeny Attacker
6.73
30
Felix Klaus
Felix Klaus (C) Attacker
7.57
42
Omar Sillah
Omar Sillah
Attacker76'
6.88

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Lukas Reich → Jannik Dehm
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Mika Wallentowitz → Shinta Appelkamp
9th Substitution
Event
Erik Ahlstrand → Louis Oppie
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Eric Smith → Mathias Rasmussen
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Rony Jansson → Arkadiusz Pyrka
5th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Doni Arifi → Sacha Bansé
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Omar Sillah → Felix Klaus 
4th Substitution
Event
Ricky-Jade Jones → Taichi Hara
2nd Substitution
73'
70'
Event
Aaron Keller → Ole Pohlmann
1st Substitution
Event
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
61'
51'
Event
Felix Klaus 
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Marcus Mathisen
Header / 1st Goal
46'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Mika Wallentowitz takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mika Wallentowitz takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Srbeny takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Update Update
Mika Wallentowitz is on, and Shinta Appelkamp is off.
87
Update Update
Lukas Reich comes on for Jannik Dehm.
85
Substitution Substitution
Eric Smith is substituted for Matias Rasmussen.
85
Update Update
Erik Ahlstrand replaces Louis Oppie.
82
Attempt Attempt
Branimir Hrgota takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
79
Update Update
Rony Jansson is on, and Arkadiusz Pyrka is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Jannik Dehm takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Keller takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
76
Update Update
Doni Arifi comes on for Sacha Banse.
76
Update Update
On comes Omar Sillah, off goes Felix Klaus.
73
Update Update
Ricky-Jade Jones is on, and Taichi Hara is off.
70
Update Update
Aaron Keller is on, and Ole Pohlmann is off.
68
Attempt Attempt
David Nemeth takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Aaron Keller comes on for Ole Pohlmann.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Attempt Attempt
Louis Oppie's right-footed shot is blocked.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Arkadiusz Pyrka.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Attempt Attempt
Krisztian Keresztes takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Branimir Hrgota takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
55
Attempt Attempt
Jannik Dehm takes a right-footed shot but misses.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Felix Klaus takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Felix Klaus scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Jannik Dehm.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Marcus Mathisen, and he scores with a header!
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marcus Mathisen scores to make it 1-0.
44
Attempt Attempt
Felix Klaus takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Felix Klaus takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Jannik Dehm takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Martijn Kaars takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Felix Klaus takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Felix Klaus takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Srbeny attempts a header but misses the shot.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Srbeny takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Felix Klaus takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Martijn Kaars takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Martijn Kaars takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Felix Klaus takes a left-footed shot but misses.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Harm Osmers.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth delivered a result that balanced attacking intent with defensive resilience across both halves. St. Pauli enjoyed greater territorial control and created more high quality chances yet could not find a decisive second goal. SpVgg Greuther Fürth absorbed pressure effectively and struck on the counter to claim their point. With no red cards altering the numerical balance the contest remained an eleven versus eleven affair from start to finish. The even first half set the tone for a second period where each side managed one goal and the expected goals gap did not translate into a home victory. This outcome underlined the fine margins that define such encounters.