St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
Energizer Park
Major League Soccer
St. Louis CityLOU
2 1
Houston DynamoHOU
Full Time
Regular Season
Simon Becher - 23'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

St. Louis City defeated Houston Dynamo 2-1 in a match that saw the home side lead 1-0 at halftime. Both teams posted identical expected goals totals of 1.38, yet the result diverged from those underlying numbers. Houston Dynamo held 53 percent possession compared to St. Louis City's 47 percent. No red cards were shown to either side. Houston Dynamo entered as the stronger side on paper, but St. Louis City secured the victory. The outcome proved inconsistent with the balanced xG profile. St. Louis City recorded a significant performance deviation relative to pre-match indicators.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: St. Louis City recorded a significant deviation from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: Both teams finished with identical xG totals of 1.38.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: The 2-1 outcome was not consistent with equal xG expectations.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the structural flow of the contest.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued and no distortion occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Da Silva
A. Da Silva
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Greeson
J. Greeson
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Nelson
M. Nelson
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Surgan
J. Surgan
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
St. Louis City Y. Damet
Y. Damet
VS
Houston Dynamo B. Olsen
B. Olsen
1.53
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.84
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting KC Rank: 50 D
SJ Earthquakes Rank: 64 W
Real Salt Lake Rank: 66 D
Colorado Rapids Rank: 63 W
LA Galaxy Rank: 60 W
Sporting KC Rank: 51 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vancouver Whitecaps Rank: 73 W
LA Galaxy Rank: 61 W
New England Rank: 62 W
Sporting KC Rank: 55 W
Austin Rank: 57 W
DC United Rank: 55 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64
66.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo
Power Score
64
66.28
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
415
346

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Louis City — Opponent-weighted form score
Houston Dynamo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Louis City Houston Dynamo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Louis City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Houston Dynamo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Louis City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Houston Dynamo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.15
38.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.68
24.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Louis City -1.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Houston Dynamo +1.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Louis City
vs
Houston Dynamo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Louis City Houston Dynamo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
12%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs -0.17
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Louis City Houston Dynamo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
12%
0%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.17 vs +0.00
St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
St. Louis City
vs
Houston Dynamo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Louis City Houston Dynamo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
St. Louis City 0.19
Houston Dynamo 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Louis City Houston Dynamo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
St. Louis City 0.02
Houston Dynamo 0.04
St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HOU had peak pressure around 40'.
  • LOU started the game with stronger pressure.
LOU Pressure HOU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HOU reached the top pressure at 40' (93.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Louis City LOU Home
4 matches
Houston Dynamo HOU Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
5
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-24T00:00:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
Energizer Park
Capacity
25000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alexis Da Silva
Jeffrey Greeson
Matthew Nelson
Joe Surgan

Statistics

Possession
LOU
48%
HOU
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 8
47 Dangerous attacks 50
47 Possession 53
1 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 18
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

64 Ball Safe 61
7 Goal Kicks 7
6 Goal Attempts 9
4 Substitutions 5
14 Throwins 13
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Successful Headers 8
1 Assists 0
11 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Successful Dribbles 6
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46

Attacking

80 Attacks 83
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

41 Long Passes 44
430 Passes 473
381 Successful Passes 411
89 Successful Passes Percentage 87
9 Key Passes 11
20 Successful Long Passes 22
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

3 Saves 2
17 Tackles 12
10 Interceptions 8
37 Duels Won 42

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 21
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

1 Offsides 4
18 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Alexis Da Silva

Starting XI ▼

1
Roman Bürki
Roman Bürki (C) Goalkeeper
6.96
21
Dante Polvara
Dante Polvara Defender
7.84
32
Timo Baumgartl
Timo Baumgartl Defender
7.1
99
Jaziel Orozco
Jaziel Orozco Defender
7.09
6
Conrad Wallem
Conrad Wallem Midfielder
6.87
14
Tomas Totland
Tomas Totland Midfielder
6.84
23
Alexandru Mățan
Alexandru Mățan Midfielder
7.1
5
Lukas MacNaughton
Lukas MacNaughton
Defender72'
6.81
24
Daniel Ethan Edelman
Daniel Ethan Edelman Midfielder
6.75
7
Tomas Ostrák
Tomas Ostrák Attacker
6.7
19
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse
Attacker62'
6.33
11
Simon Becher
Simon Becher Attacker
6.83
28
Miguel Perez
Miguel Perez
Midfielder90+2'
77
Sang-bin Jeong
Sang-bin Jeong Attacker
6.5
29
Palmer Ault
Palmer Ault
Midfielder72'
6.48
Referee : Alexis Da Silva

Starting XI ▼

31
Jonathan Bond
Jonathan Bond Goalkeeper
6.34
4
Marcelo Saracchi
Marcelo Saracchi Defender
6.62
36
Felipe Andrade
Felipe Andrade
Defender46'
6.35
5
Lucas Halter
Lucas Halter Defender
6.52
11
Lawrence Ennali
Lawrence Ennali Defender
6.39
14
Duane Holmes
Duane Holmes
Midfielder90+2'
34
Agustin Resch
Agustin Resch Defender
7.36
6
Artur
Artur (C) Midfielder
7.18
8
Jack McGlynn
Jack McGlynn Midfielder
7.47
18
Diadié Samassékou
Diadié Samassékou Midfielder
6.74
16
Héctor Herrera
Héctor Herrera
Midfielder57'
6.65
19
Mateusz Bogusz
Mateusz Bogusz Midfielder
6.77
30
Agustín Bouzat
Agustín Bouzat Midfielder
6.56
21
Franco Negri
Franco Negri
Defender87'
23
Duncan McGuire
Duncan McGuire Attacker
6.45
24
Ibrahim Aliyu
Ibrahim Aliyu
Attacker57'
7.33

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tomas Totland
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+8'
Event
Miguel Perez → Simon Becher
9th Substitution
90+2'
90+2'
Event
Duane Holmes → Lawrence Ennali
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Franco Negri → Agustín Bouzat
7th Substitution
Event
Dante Polvara
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
85'
81'
Event
Lucas Halter
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Ibrahim Aliyu
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Palmer Ault → Sang-bin Jeong
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Lukas MacNaughton → Alexandru Mățan
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Carlo Holse
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
70'
66'
Event
Mateusz Bogusz
Goal disallowed
Event
Simon Becher
Off the ball foul / 4th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Carlo Holse → Tomas Ostrák
4th Substitution
62'
58'
Event
Mateusz Bogusz
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Agustín Bouzat
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
57'
Event
Ibrahim Aliyu → Duncan McGuire
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Héctor Herrera → Diadié Samassékou
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Felipe Andrade → Marcelo Saracchi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Alexandru Mățan
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
Event
Simon Becher
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
23'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Bogusz takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 2-1.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
90
Attempt Attempt
Agustín Resch attempted a header but missed the shot.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dante Polvara takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Holse takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jack McGlynn takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Duane Holmes is on, and Lawrence Ennali is off.
90
Update Update
Miguel Perez is on, and Simon Becher is off.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Dante Polvara scores with a left-footed shot.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
83
Update Update
Offside.
83
Attempt Attempt
Lukas MacNaughton takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ibrahim Aliyu takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
75
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Bogusz takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ibrahim Aliyu scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
72
Update Update
Lukas MacNaughton is on, and Alexandru Irinel Matan is off.
72
Update Update
Palmer Ault is on, and Jeong Sang Bin is off.
71
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mateusz Bogusz Head Shot Missed
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
66
Update Update
Offside.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Mateusz Bogusz due to offside.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Mateusz Bogusz takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Simon Becher receives a yellow card.
62
Substitution Substitution
Carlo Holse is substituted for Tomas Ostrak.
60
Update Update
Offside.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Agustin Bouzat receives a yellow card.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Mateusz Bogusz.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
55
Attempt Attempt
Dante Polvara's right-footed shot is saved.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Felipe de Andrade Vieira is on, and Marcelo Saracchi is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Artur is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Artur takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Bouzat takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Attempt Attempt
Marcelo Saracchi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Halter's header is saved.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Attempt Attempt
Jack McGlynn takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Artur takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Bouzat takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Jeong Sang Bin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Update Update
Offside.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Simon Becher scores with a right-footed shot.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Simon Becher scores to make it 1-0.
18
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Edelman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Marcelo Saracchi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Bogusz takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
11
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Bogusz takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
7
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Bogusz attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Ostrak takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
2
Update Update
Offside.
2
Update Update
Offside.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Alexis Da Silva.

CONCLUSION

The 2-1 result highlighted a clear gap between expected goals and actual finishing. St. Louis City converted opportunities more effectively despite equal xG figures and lower possession. Houston Dynamo controlled more of the ball but failed to translate that control into a result. The absence of red cards kept the game at full strength throughout both halves. Halftime lead of 1-0 proved decisive as the visitors could not equalize after the break. Overall the match demonstrated how efficiency differences can override balanced underlying metrics and pre-match team strength assessments.