St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock preview

Scotland flag 2026/2027 Premiership, Scotland
McDiarmid Park Sun, 2 Aug - 1:00 PM
Premiership
St. JohnstoneSTJ
4 3
KilmarnockKIL
Full Time Sun, 2 Aug 1:00 PM
Round 1 1st Phase
Josh Fowler - 16'
C. Diabate - 47'
Michael Schjönning-Larsen - 69' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Greg Kiltie - 37'
Joe Hugill - 49'
J. Holt - 53' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. St. Johnstone 4–3 Kilmarnock. The result saw St. Johnstone take the points. St. Johnstone showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished St. Johnstone 2.7 – 1.6 Kilmarnock. Possession was 56%–44%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: St. Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock. St. Johnstone showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Beaton
J. Beaton
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. MacLeod
R. MacLeod
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Anderson
R. Anderson
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Murdoch
S. Murdoch
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
St. Johnstone S. Valakari
S. Valakari
VS
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: 56 W
Dundee Rank: 64 W
St. Mirren Rank: 63 W
Dundee United Rank: 66 W
Aberdeen Rank: 63 L
Dundee Rank: 64 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
31.5
65.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Johnstone
Kilmarnock
Power Score
31.5
65.01
League Position
2
9
Global Rank
352
460

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Johnstone — Opponent-weighted form score
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Johnstone Kilmarnock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Johnstone

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Johnstone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kilmarnock
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.79
20.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.34
31.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Johnstone +1.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Kilmarnock -1.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Johnstone
Kilmarnock
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Johnstone
vs
Kilmarnock
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Johnstone Kilmarnock
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
58%
3%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.59 vs -0.05
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Johnstone Kilmarnock
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
3%
58%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.05 vs -1.59
St. Johnstone
Kilmarnock
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
St. Johnstone
vs
Kilmarnock
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Johnstone Kilmarnock
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
St. Johnstone 0.27
Kilmarnock 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Johnstone Kilmarnock
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
St. Johnstone 0.08
Kilmarnock 0.07
St. Johnstone
Kilmarnock
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KIL had peak pressure around 58'.
  • STJ started the game with stronger pressure.
STJ Pressure KIL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KIL reached the top pressure at 58' (88.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Johnstone STJ Home
4 matches
Kilmarnock KIL Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-03T00:02:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 02, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Premiership, Scotland · Round 1 · 1st Phase
Stadium
McDiarmid Park
Capacity
10696
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
John Beaton
Ross MacLeod
Ross Anderson
S. Murdoch

Statistics

Possession
STJ
56%
KIL
44%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 2
56 Dangerous attacks 39
56 Possession 44
6 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

63 Ball Safe 68
9 Goal Kicks 11
11 Goal Attempts 6
6 Substitutions 5
27 Throwins 24
18 Successful Headers 20
3 Assists 1
1 Injuries 1
14 Dribble Attempts 25
9 Successful Dribbles 8
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32

Attacking

128 Attacks 95

Possession

62 Long Passes 52
529 Passes 415
446 Successful Passes 329
84 Successful Passes Percentage 79
13 Key Passes 6
25 Successful Long Passes 10
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 19

Defensive

3 Saves 2
20 Tackles 14
7 Interceptions 10

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 16
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
6 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

1
Toby Steward
Toby Steward Goalkeeper
6.31
3
C. Diabate
C. Diabate Defender
7.38
5
Zach Mitchell
Zach Mitchell Defender
6.52
14
Matthew Foulds
Matthew Foulds Defender
6.76
33
Liam Smith
Liam Smith Defender
6.5
8
J. Holt
J. Holt (C) Midfielder
6.74
23
Logan Chalmers
Logan Chalmers
Midfielder61'
6.74
10
Jamie Gullan
Jamie Gullan Midfielder
8.28
15
Jack Baird
Jack Baird
Defender85'
6.44
11
Sam Stanton
Sam Stanton Midfielder
6.73
42
Reece McAlear
Reece McAlear Midfielder
6.46
—
Reece McAlear
69'
99
R. Paton
R. Paton Midfielder
6.42
18
Kai Fotheringham
Kai Fotheringham
Attacker61'
7.47
9
Josh Fowler
Josh Fowler Attacker
8.04
25
Macaulay Tait
Macaulay Tait
Midfielder84'
6.23
Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
5.81
8
Erik Ring
Erik Ring Defender
6.01
5
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara
Midfielder66'
6.6
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
6.66
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Defender
5.55
25
Ethan Schilte-Brown
Ethan Schilte-Brown Defender
6.12
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie (C) Midfielder
6.94
27
Ieuan Owen
Ieuan Owen
Attacker85'
6.44
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Midfielder
6.95
20
Nicky Clescenco
Nicky Clescenco Midfielder
6.58
23
Roshaun Mathurin
Roshaun Mathurin
Attacker59'
6.55
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
5.7
49
Bailey Rice
Bailey Rice
Midfielder59'
6.55
9
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
7.15
10
Tyreece John-Jules
Tyreece John-Jules Attacker
6.1
2
Jamie Brandon
Jamie Brandon
Defender45+2'
6.16

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jack Baird → Jamie Gullan
9th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Ieuan Owen → Greg Kiltie
10th Substitution
Event
Macaulay Tait → Josh Fowler
8th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Jamie Brandon
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Kai Fotheringham
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
80'
Event
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Left foot shot / 2nd Own Goal
69'
Event
Louis Lloyd → Reece McAlear
7th Substitution
69'
66'
Event
Mark O'Hara  → Erik Ring
6th Substitution
Event
Logan Chalmers → J. Holt
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Kai Fotheringham → R. Paton
5th Substitution
61'
59'
Event
Roshaun Mathurin → Nicky Clescenco
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Bailey Rice → Aaron Tshibola
3rd Substitution
53'
Event
J. Holt
Header / 1st Own Goal
Event
C. Diabate
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
52'
49'
Event
Joe Hugill
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
C. Diabate
Header / 3rd Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
Event
Liam Smith
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+4'
45+2'
Event
Jamie Brandon → Tyreece John-Jules
1st Substitution
37'
Event
Greg Kiltie
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
21'
Event
Tyreece John-Jules
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Josh Fowler
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
16'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Bailey Rice takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Update Update
Ieuan Gwyn Owen is on, and Greg Kiltie is off.
85
Update Update
Jack Baird is on, and James Gullan is off.
84
Substitution Substitution
Macauley Tait is substituted for Josh Fowler.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jamie Brandon.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kai Fotheringham scores with a right-footed shot.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kai Fotheringham scores, making it 4-3.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded.
69
Substitution Substitution
Louis Lloyd is substituted for Reece McAlear.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Louis Lloyd results in a goal.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot from Louis Lloyd results in a goal.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Louis Lloyd scores, bringing the match to 3-3.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-3.
64
Attempt Attempt
James Gullan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
James Gullan takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
63
Attempt Attempt
Logan Chalmers takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Update Update
Kai Fotheringham replaces Ruari Paton.
61
Update Update
Logan Chalmers is on, and Jason Holt is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Greg Kiltie takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Update Update
Roshaun Mathurin is on, and Nicky Clescenco is off.
59
Update Update
Bailey Rice replaces Aaron Tshibola.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Jason Holt results in an own goal.
53
Attempt Attempt
Nicky Clescenco takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal! Jason Holt scores an own goal, making it 2-3.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Cheick Tidiane Diabate.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Joe Hugill takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-2.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Cheick Tidiane Diabate Head Shot Goal
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cheick Tidiane Diabate scores to make it 2-1, assisted by James Gullan.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Update Update
First half ends with the score at 1-1.
45
Attempt Attempt
James Gullan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Update Update
Jamie Brandon is on, and Tyreece John Jules is off.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Greg Kiltie takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Greg Kiltie scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
36
Attempt Attempt
James Gullan takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Sam Stanton Head Shot Missed
29
Attempt Attempt
James Gullan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
James Gullan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tyreece John Jules receives a yellow card.
20
Attempt Attempt
Shot - George Stanger Head Shot Missed
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Josh Fowler takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Josh Fowler scores, making it 1-0.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Liam Smith Head Shot Missed
11
Update Update
Offside.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Sam Stanton Head Shot Missed
9
Attempt Attempt
Reece McAlear takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has started!

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: St. Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock. Structural assessment: St. Johnstone exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.