Spain vs Cape Verde Islands preview

2026 World Cup, World
Atlanta Stadium Mon, 15 Jun - 4:00 PM
World Cup
Spain ESP
0 – 0
Cape Verde Islands CPV
Full Time Mon, 15 Jun 4:00 PM
Round 1 Group Stage

CONTEXT

Spain hosted Cape Verde Islands in a match that concluded with a 0-0 scoreline after a goalless first half. Spain controlled 74 percent of possession and created an expected goals total of 2.65 while limiting the visitors to 0.26 xG. Despite the clear dominance in chance creation the home side failed to convert opportunities into goals. Cape Verde Islands defended compactly and restricted Spain effectively throughout both halves. No red cards were issued and the game remained even at the interval. The result represented a draw that diverged from the underlying performance metrics. The match highlighted Spain's inability to break down a resilient defensive setup despite sustained pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cape Verde Islands produced a significant 91.8 percent deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency levels stayed in line with underlying metrics for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Final outcome was inconsistent with xG as Spain failed to score despite 2.65 expected goals.
  • Market alignment: Result did not align with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: Spain posted 2.65 xG against Cape Verde Islands 0.26 xG.
  • Event impact: No decisive events altered the trajectory of the 0-0 draw.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Makhadmeh
A. Makhadmeh
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Al Kalaf
M. Al Kalaf
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Al Roalle
A. Al Roalle
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Rojas Noguera
A. Rojas Noguera
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Spain L. De la Fuente Castillo
L. De la Fuente Castillo
VS
Cape Verde Islands P. Leitão Brito
P. Leitão Brito
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spain
88.26%
Draw
8.16%
Away Cape Verde Islands
3.58%

Movement

Changes since opening
Spain
+80.96%
Draw
-83.12%
Cape Verde Islands
+2.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
37.03
44.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spain
Cape Verde Islands
Power Score
37.03
44.44
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
2
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spain — Opponent-weighted form score
Cape Verde Islands — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spain Cape Verde Islands

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Spain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cape Verde Islands

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cape Verde Islands
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.88
24.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.42
45.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spain +1.91 Efficiency Index
vs
Cape Verde Islands -1.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spain
Cape Verde Islands
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spain
vs
Cape Verde Islands
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spain Cape Verde Islands
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
15%
63%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.41 vs -0.17
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spain Cape Verde Islands
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
63%
15%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.17 vs -0.41
Spain
Cape Verde Islands
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Spain
vs
Cape Verde Islands
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Spain Cape Verde Islands
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Spain 0.19
Cape Verde Islands 0.86
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Spain Cape Verde Islands
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Spain 0.00
Cape Verde Islands 0.00
Spain
Cape Verde Islands
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ESP had peak pressure around 53'.
  • ESP started the game with stronger pressure.
ESP Pressure CPV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ESP reached the top pressure at 53' (91.48).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spain ESP Home
0 matches
Cape Verde Islands CPV Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-16T00:00:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
23 U. Simón Mendibil
M. Llorente Moreno
Spain
5 M. Llorente Moreno
P. Cubarsí Paredes
Spain
22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
A. Laporte
Spain
14 A. Laporte
M. Cucurella
Spain
24 M. Cucurella
F. Ruiz Peña
Substitution
Spain
8 F. Ruiz Peña
Rodri
Substitution
Spain
16 (C) Rodri
P. López
Spain
20 P. López
F. Torres García
Substitution
Spain
7 F. Torres García
M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Spain
21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Pablo Gaviria
Substitution
Spain
9 Pablo Gaviria
J. Évora Dias
Cape Verde
1 J. Évora Dias
S. Lopes Cabral
Substitution
Cape Verde
13 S. Lopes Cabral
E. Monteiro Sanches Borges
Cape Verde
3 E. Monteiro Sanches Borges
R. Lopes
Cape Verde
4 R. Lopes
S. Moreira
Cape Verde
22 S. Moreira
K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
Cape Verde
6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
J. Borges Cabral
Substitution
Cape Verde
7 J. Borges Cabral
J. Monteiro Alvarenga
Substitution
Cape Verde
10 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
L. Duarte
Substitution
Cape Verde
15 L. Duarte
R. Mendes da Graça
Cape Verde
20 (C) R. Mendes da Graça
D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
Substitution
Cape Verde
19 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 15, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 1 · Group Stage
Stadium
Atlanta Stadium
Capacity
71000
Attendance
67640
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh
Mohammad Mustafa Hassan Al Kalaf
Ahmad Moannes Nadi Al Roalle
Andrés José Rojas Noguera

Statistics

Possession
ESP
71%
CPV
29%

Top Statistics

2 Big Chances Created 1
20 Shots 5
139 Dangerous attacks 7
74 Possession 26
11 Corners 1
4 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

68 Ball Safe 94
5 Goal Kicks 14
17 Goal Attempts 4
4 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 14
1 Hit Woodwork 0
18 Successful Headers 9
1 Injuries 1
13 Dribble Attempts 11
6 Successful Dribbles 4
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36

Attacking

187 Attacks 32
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

30 Long Passes 55
801 Passes 279
734 Successful Passes 205
92 Successful Passes Percentage 73
20 Key Passes 4
24 Successful Long Passes 18
80 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

1 Saves 7
13 Tackles 17
6 Interceptions 16
38 Duels Won 39

Build-up

36 Total Crosses 4
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 1

Lineup

Referee : Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh

Starting XI ▼

23
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
6.92
5
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Defender
7.48
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
7.3
22
Pau Cubarsí
Pau Cubarsí Defender
7.4
24
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Defender
7.66
8
Fabián Ruiz
Fabián Ruiz Midfielder
7.5
6
Mikel Merino
Mikel Merino
Midfielder71'
7
16
Rodri
Rodri (C) Midfielder
8.07
17
Nico Williams
Nico Williams
Attacker87'
20
Pedri
Pedri Midfielder
8.95
7
Ferran Torres
Ferran Torres Attacker
6.35
10
Dani Olmo
Dani Olmo
Midfielder81'
6.74
9
Gavi
Gavi Attacker
6.95
19
Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal
Attacker71'
6.78
21
Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal Attacker
7.01
Referee : Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh

Starting XI ▼

1
Vozinha
Vozinha Goalkeeper
8.96
3
Diney Borges
Diney Borges Defender
7.71
4
Roberto Lopes
Roberto Lopes Defender
7.26
13
Sidny Lopes Cabral
Sidny Lopes Cabral Defender
6.92
8
João Paulo
João Paulo
Midfielder76'
6.78
22
Steven Moreira
Steven Moreira Defender
6.67
6
Kevin Lenini
Kevin Lenini Midfielder
6.18
7
Jovane Cabral
Jovane Cabral Midfielder
6.8
17
Willy Semedo
Willy Semedo
Attacker61'
6.14
10
Jamiro Monteiro
Jamiro Monteiro Midfielder
6.64
18
Telmo Arcanjo
Telmo Arcanjo
Midfielder79'
6.87
15
Laros Duarte
Laros Duarte Midfielder
6.41
14
Deroy Duarte
Deroy Duarte
Midfielder61'
6.74
20
Ryan Mendes
Ryan Mendes (C) Midfielder
6.68
19
Dailon Livramento
Dailon Livramento Attacker
6.63
21
Nuno Da Costa
Nuno Da Costa
Attacker61'
6.45

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Pedri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Nico Williams → Rodri
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Dani Olmo → Ferran Torres
8th Substitution
81'
79'
Event
Telmo Arcanjo → Jamiro Monteiro
7th Substitution
76'
Event
João Paulo → Sidny Lopes Cabral
6th Substitution
Event
Mikel Merino → Fabián Ruiz
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Lamine Yamal → Gavi
5th Substitution
71'
61'
Event
Nuno Da Costa → Dailon Livramento
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Deroy Duarte → Laros Duarte
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Willy Semedo → Jovane Cabral
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
16'
Event
Sidny Lopes Cabral
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Yamal from Spain misses a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it to the left.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Lamine Yamal's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Spain after Kevin Pina concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Mikel Oyarzabal from Spain misses a header from the right side of the six-yard box, sending the ball to the left. He was assisted by Lamine Yamal, who provided a cross after a corner.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Mendes from Cabo Verde misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. He was assisted by Telmo Arcanjo.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Mendes from Cabo Verde misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
90
Update Update
Nuno da Costa from Cabo Verde wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedri of Spain.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pedri from Spain receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Lamine Yamal's left-footed shot from outside the box for Spain is blocked.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Diney Borges from Cabo Verde had a header from the center of the box, but Unai Simón from Spain saved it in the center of the goal. The assist came from Telmo Arcanjo's cross.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Spain after Diney Borges concedes.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
88
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Pina's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Deroy Duarte provided the assist.
88
Corner Corner
Cabo Verde wins a corner after Dani Olmo concedes.
87
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Mikel Oyarzabal's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Spain after a concession by Pico Lopes.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Nico Williams comes on for Rodri.
83
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Rodri (Spain) takes a left-footed shot from outside the box.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Marc Cucurella's header from the center of the box is saved by Vozinha in the center of the goal. Mikel Merino provided the assist with a headed pass.
81
Update Update
João Paulo from Cabo Verde wins a free kick on the left wing.
81
Update Update
Lamine Yamal commits a foul for Spain.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Spain after João Paulo concedes.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Dani Olmo comes on for Ferran Torres.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cabo Verde: Telmo Arcanjo comes on for Jamiro Monteiro.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Spain after Diney Borges concedes.
75
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Pedri's right-footed shot from outside the box for Spain is blocked. Mikel Merino provided the assist.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cabo Verde: João Paulo comes on for Sidny Cabral.
75
Attempt Attempt
Ferran Torres' right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Rodri provided the assist.
73
Update Update
Kevin Pina from Cabo Verde wins a free kick in the defensive half.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Mikel Merino (Spain).
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Mikel Merino's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Vozinha in the center of the goal. Marcos Llorente provided the assist.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Lamine Yamal comes on for Gavi.
68
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Mikel Merino comes on for Fabián Ruiz.
68
Update Update
Vozinha from Cabo Verde is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Rodri of Spain.
65
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
65
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Sidny Cabral concedes.
61
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Aymeric Laporte from Spain.
61
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cabo Verde: Willy Semedo comes on for Jovane Cabral due to an injury.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cabo Verde: Deroy Duarte comes on for Laros Duarte.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cabo Verde: Nuno da Costa comes on for Dailon Livramento.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Spain after Diney Borges concedes.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Spain after Diney Borges concedes.
52
Update Update
Aymeric Laporte of Spain misses an attempt, shooting too high with his left foot from outside the box. Rodri provided the assist.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Fabián Ruiz's header from the center of the box is saved in the middle of the goal by Vozinha. The assist came from Pedri with a through ball.
51
Update Update
Ryan Mendes from Cabo Verde wins a free kick in the defensive half.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Gavi of Spain.
48
Attempt Attempt
Fabián Ruiz from Spain misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
46
Attempt Attempt
Fabián Ruiz from Spain misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high. He was assisted by Marcos Llorente.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Oyarzabal from Spain misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at 0-0 between Spain and Cabo Verde.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) had a header from very close range.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) had a header from very close range.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) heads the ball from very close range.
45
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Aymeric Laporte's header from the center of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Vozinha.
45
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Vozinha concedes.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Spain after Jovane Cabral concedes.
41
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
40
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ferran Torres from Spain has his left-footed shot from the center of the box saved by Vozinha in the center of the goal.
39
Update Update
Offside called against Spain. Pedri is caught offside.
39
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Fabián Ruiz (Spain) took a left-footed shot from outside the box after a corner.
38
Attempt Attempt
Ferran Torres hits the bar with a right-footed shot from very close range, assisted by Marc Cucurella's headed pass.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Mikel Oyarzabal's header from the center of the box is saved by Vozinha in the top center of the goal. Ferran Torres provided the assist.
37
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Vozinha concedes.
36
Attempt Attempt
Jovane Cabral from Cabo Verde misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from long range on the left, sending it too high. Sidny Cabral provided the assist after a set piece situation.
35
Update Update
Dailon Livramento from Cabo Verde is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
35
Update Update
Marcos Llorente commits a foul for Spain.
35
Update Update
Offside for Spain. Marc Cucurella is caught offside.
34
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Dailon Livramento from Cabo Verde takes a right-footed shot from over 35 yards but misses to the left after a fast break.
34
Update Update
Sidny Cabral from Cabo Verde wins a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Update Update
Ferran Torres commits a foul for Spain.
29
Update Update
Sidny Cabral from Cabo Verde is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
29
Update Update
Ferran Torres commits a foul for Spain.
27
Update Update
Cabo Verde is called offside. Ryan Mendes is the player caught offside.
26
Attempt Attempt
Gavi's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Marc Cucurella provided the assist.
23
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Marc Cucurella (Spain) shoots with his right foot from the left side of the box, but it goes too high.
22
Attempt Attempt
Steven Moreira's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
20
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
20
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
19
Update Update
Offside against Cabo Verde. Ryan Mendes is caught offside.
16
Attempt Attempt
Pau Cubarsí's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Rodri provided the assist.
16
Update Update
Offside called against Cabo Verde. Dailon Livramento is caught in an offside position.
16
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Fabián Ruiz (Spain) takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Sidny Cabral of Cabo Verde.
15
Update Update
Marcos Llorente wins a free kick for Spain on the right wing.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sidny Cabral from Cabo Verde receives a yellow card for a foul.
4
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Pedri's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
2
Update Update
Gavi from Spain commits a handball.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Spain after Jovane Cabral concedes.
1
Update Update
VAR decision: the previous decision has been cancelled.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Spain 0-0 Cape Verde Islands. Structural assessment: Cape Verde Islands exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.