South Africa vs Canada preview

2026 World Cup, World
Los Angeles Stadium Sun, 28 Jun - 7:00 PM
World Cup
South AfricaRSA
0 1
CanadaCAN
Full Time Sun, 28 Jun 7:00 PM
Round of 32
|
Goal

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested international fixture South Africa faced off against Canada with the home side entering as the stronger team on paper. The match concluded with a narrow 0-1 victory for the visitors after a goalless first half that saw both teams level at the break. South Africa controlled 58 percent of possession but managed only 0.14 in expected goals while Canada generated 1.38 despite holding 42 percent possession. The significant deviation of 48.2 percent highlighted Canada's overachievement relative to initial projections. No red cards were issued throughout the encounter allowing the game to proceed without major interruptions. The outcome proved consistent with the xG figures and aligned with market indicators.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: South Africa 0-1 Canada. Canada showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The match outcome was consistent with the expected goals differential.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market projections for the contest.
  • xG expectations: South Africa underperformed relative to xG expectations with only 0.14.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the flow beyond standard play.
  • Red card distortion: The absence of red cards meant no distortion in team dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Silva Pinheiro
J. Silva Pinheiro
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
B. Alves Jesus
B. Alves Jesus
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Gomes Maia
L. Gomes Maia
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Al Ali
O. Al Ali
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
South Africa H. Broos
H. Broos
VS
Canada J. Marsch
J. Marsch
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korea Republic Rank: W
Czech Republic Rank: D
Mexico Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Switzerland Rank: L
Qatar Rank: W
Bosnia and Herzegovina Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home South Africa
19.63%
Draw
28.52%
Away Canada
51.84%

Movement

Changes since opening
South Africa
+19.44%
Draw
+24.32%
Canada
-43.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.5
13.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
South Africa
Canada
Power Score
19.5
13.21
League Position
2
2
Global Rank
60
30

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
South Africa — Opponent-weighted form score
Canada — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) South Africa Canada

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

South Africa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Canada

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

South Africa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Canada
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
12.07
34.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.52
12.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
South Africa -2.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Canada +2.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
South Africa
Canada
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

South Africa
vs
Canada
Created Set-piece attacking threat
South Africa Canada
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
15%
68%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.02 vs -0.94
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
South Africa Canada
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
68%
15%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.94 vs -0.02
South Africa
Canada
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
South Africa
vs
Canada
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
South Africa Canada
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
South Africa 0.30
Canada 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
South Africa Canada
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
South Africa 0.02
Canada 0.00
South Africa
Canada
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAN had peak pressure around 46'.
  • CAN started the game with stronger pressure.
RSA Pressure CAN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAN reached the top pressure at 46' (80.65).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 28, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 32
Stadium
Los Angeles Stadium
Capacity
70242
Attendance
69237
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
João Pedro Silva Pinheiro
Bruno Miguel Alves Jesus
Luciano António Gomes Maia
Omar Mohamed Al Ali

Statistics

Possession
RSA
56%
CAN
44%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 5
20 Dangerous attacks 50
58 Possession 42
1 Corners 4
15 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

89 Ball Safe 72
12 Goal Kicks 4
5 Goal Attempts 13
3 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 21
11 Successful Headers 22
0 Injuries 1
18 Dribble Attempts 21
12 Successful Dribbles 7
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33

Attacking

85 Attacks 124
0 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

72 Long Passes 31
554 Passes 379
466 Successful Passes 298
84 Successful Passes Percentage 79
5 Key Passes 10
31 Successful Long Passes 15
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

Defensive

5 Saves 1
22 Tackles 20
15 Interceptions 8

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 13
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : João Pedro Silva Pinheiro

Starting XI ▼

1
Ronwen Williams
Ronwen Williams (C) Goalkeeper
7.66
6
Aubrey Modiba
Aubrey Modiba Defender
7.37
14
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
Mbekezeli Mbokazi Defender
6.95
20
Khuliso Mudau
Khuliso Mudau Defender
7.18
21
Ime Okon
Ime Okon Defender
6.99
4
Teboho Mokoena
Teboho Mokoena Midfielder
6.84
7
Oswin Appollis
Oswin Appollis Midfielder
6.59
10
Relebohile Mofokeng
Relebohile Mofokeng Midfielder
6.7
5
Thalente Mbatha
Thalente Mbatha
Midfielder46'
6.51
12
Thapelo Maseko
Thapelo Maseko Midfielder
6.5
8
Tshepang Moremi
Tshepang Moremi
Attacker86'
13
Yaya Sithole
Yaya Sithole Midfielder
7.26
17
Evidence Makgopa
Evidence Makgopa Attacker
6.63
15
Iqraam Rayners
Iqraam Rayners
Attacker86'
Referee : João Pedro Silva Pinheiro

Starting XI ▼

16
Maxime Crépeau
Maxime Crépeau Goalkeeper
6.87
2
Alistair Johnston
Alistair Johnston Defender
6.77
13
Derek Cornelius
Derek Cornelius Defender
7.31
15
Moïse Bombito
Moïse Bombito Defender
6.67
4
Luc De Fougerolles
Luc De Fougerolles
Defender59'
7.38
22
Richie Laryea
Richie Laryea Defender
7.01
7
Stephen Eustaquio
Stephen Eustaquio (C) Midfielder
8.64
11
Liam Millar
Liam Millar Midfielder
6.28
14
Jacob Shaffelburg
Jacob Shaffelburg
Attacker70'
6.32
17
Tajon Buchanan
Tajon Buchanan Midfielder
6.38
19
Alphonso Davies
Alphonso Davies
Defender75'
6.07
25
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Nathan-Dylan Saliba Midfielder
6.88
23
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur
Midfielder59'
6.48
10
Jonathan David
Jonathan David Attacker
6.53
12
Tani Oluwaseyi
Tani Oluwaseyi Attacker
6.65
24
Promise David
Promise David
Attacker70'
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Stephen Eustaquio
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Tshepang Moremi → Thapelo Maseko
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Iqraam Rayners → Evidence Makgopa
8th Substitution
86'
75'
Event
Alphonso Davies  → Tajon Buchanan
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Promise David → Tani Oluwaseyi
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Jacob Shaffelburg → Liam Millar
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Niko Sigur
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Luc De Fougerolles → Moïse Bombito
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Niko Sigur → Nathan-Dylan Saliba
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Thalente Mbatha → Relebohile Mofokeng
1st Substitution
46'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Maxime Crépeau wins a free kick for Canada in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Mbekezeli Mbokazi of South Africa.
90
Update Update
Offside for South Africa. Mbekezeli Mbokazi is caught offside.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Canada takes the lead 1-0 against South Africa with a right-footed shot from outside the box by Stephen Eustaquio.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
89
Update Update
Foul committed by Iqraam Rayners of South Africa.
89
Update Update
Derek Cornelius wins a free kick for Canada in the defensive half.
87
Update Update
Richie Laryea commits a foul for Canada.
87
Update Update
Khuliso Mudau from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Niko Sigur of Canada.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for South Africa: Iqraam Rayners comes on for Evidence Makgopa.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for South Africa: Tshepang Moremi comes on for Thapelo Maseko.
86
Update Update
Oswin Appollis from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
85
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Oswin Appollis from South Africa, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Jacob Shaffelburg of Canada.
82
Update Update
Aubrey Modiba from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
78
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Jonathan David's left-footed shot from a tough angle on the left is saved in the top left corner by Ronwen Williams. The assist came from Alphonso Davies.
76
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Promise David from Canada took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Canada: Alphonso Davies comes on for Tajon Buchanan.
75
Update Update
Richie Laryea wins a free kick for Canada in the defensive half.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by Thalente Mbatha of South Africa.
75
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Thalente Mbatha from South Africa, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
73
Update Update
Niko Sigur commits a foul for Canada.
73
Update Update
Aubrey Modiba from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
72
Update Update
Richie Laryea commits a foul for Canada.
72
Update Update
Thapelo Maseko from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
70
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Canada: Promise David comes on for Tani Oluwaseyi.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Canada: Jacob Shaffelburg comes on for Liam Millar.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niko Sigur from Canada receives a yellow card for a foul.
67
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Niko Sigur of Canada.
67
Update Update
Teboho Mokoena from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
66
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Luc De Fougerolles from Canada headed the ball from the center of the box after a corner.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Tani Oluwaseyi from Canada has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Ronwen Williams from South Africa saves it in the center of the goal. The shot was assisted by Niko Sigur with a through ball.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Canada after Mbekezeli Mbokazi concedes.
62
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Oswin Appollis from South Africa, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
60
Update Update
Delay in the match in South Africa.
60
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Canada: Niko Sigur comes on for Nathan Saliba.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Canada: Luc De Fougerolles comes on for Moïse Bombito.
58
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
57
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Stephen Eustaquio from Canada.
57
Update Update
Stephen Eustaquio from Canada is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Thapelo Maseko of South Africa.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Nathan Saliba of Canada.
54
Update Update
Khuliso Mudau from South Africa wins a free kick in the attacking half.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nathan Saliba of Canada receives a yellow card for a foul.
54
Update Update
Richie Laryea commits a foul for Canada.
54
Update Update
Thapelo Maseko from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
52
Update Update
Richie Laryea wins a free kick for Canada in the defensive half.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Thalente Mbatha of South Africa.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonathan David (Canada).
49
Update Update
Khuliso Mudau from South Africa wins a free kick on the right wing.
49
Update Update
Mbekezeli Mbokazi from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
49
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Liam Millar from Canada, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between South Africa and Canada.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for South Africa: Thalente Mbatha comes on for Relebohile Mofokeng.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with a score of 0-0 between South Africa and Canada.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Tani Oluwaseyi from Canada heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes to the right.
44
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Ronwen Williams (South Africa) saves a right-footed shot from Tajon Buchanan (Canada) taken from the right side of the six-yard box, diving to the bottom right corner.
44
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Moïse Bombito's header from very close range is saved.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Nathan Saliba of Canada.
44
Update Update
Relebohile Mofokeng from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
43
Corner Corner
Canada wins a corner after Khuliso Mudau concedes.
41
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Tani Oluwaseyi from Canada heads the ball from the center of the box after a set piece situation.
40
Update Update
Tani Oluwaseyi from Canada is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Mbekezeli Mbokazi of South Africa.
39
Update Update
Nathan Saliba from Canada wins a free kick in the defensive half.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Yaya Sithole of South Africa.
37
Update Update
VAR decision: the previous decision has been cancelled.
37
Update Update
Richie Laryea wins a free kick for Canada on the left wing.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Thapelo Maseko of South Africa.
36
Corner Corner
Ime Okon from South Africa misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the right. The attempt was assisted by Oswin Appollis, who delivered a cross following a corner.
35
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Tani Oluwaseyi's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the top left corner by Ronwen Williams. The shot was assisted by Liam Millar.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to South Africa after a concession by Liam Millar.
26
Update Update
Delay is over and play is ready to resume.
23
Update Update
Jonathan David commits a foul for Canada.
23
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
23
Attempt Attempt
Teboho Mokoena's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. He was assisted by Thapelo Maseko.
23
Update Update
Mbekezeli Mbokazi from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
22
Attempt Attempt
Derek Cornelius's header from the center of the box for Canada is saved.
21
Update Update
Tani Oluwaseyi from Canada is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
21
Update Update
Ime Okon commits a foul for South Africa.
20
Update Update
Nathan Saliba from Canada is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
20
Update Update
Relebohile Mofokeng commits a foul for South Africa.
17
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Jonathan David from Canada with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
16
Corner Corner
Canada wins a corner after Yaya Sithole concedes.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Canada after Mbekezeli Mbokazi concedes.
13
Update Update
Richie Laryea commits a foul for Canada.
13
Update Update
Thapelo Maseko from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Nathan Saliba of Canada.
10
Update Update
Relebohile Mofokeng from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Canada after Thapelo Maseko concedes.
7
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Stephen Eustaquio's right-footed shot from outside the box goes over the bar.
6
Corner Corner
Teboho Mokoena's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Maxime Crépeau. The attempt was assisted by Relebohile Mofokeng.
4
Update Update
Tajon Buchanan commits a foul for Canada.
4
Update Update
Aubrey Modiba from South Africa is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Joao Pedro Pinheiro.

CONCLUSION

Canada's triumph underscored their clinical approach in front of goal despite limited ball dominance. South Africa's inability to convert possession into meaningful chances proved costly as they failed to register a single goal. The xG differential of -1.24 accurately reflected the disparity in quality opportunities created during the ninety minutes. With the halftime score remaining 0-0 the second half adjustments by Canada proved decisive in securing the three points. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations showing no unusual shifts in performance levels. The lack of disciplinary issues ensured a fair contest focused purely on tactical execution and individual brilliance from the away side.