SK Rapid vs Paide preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Allianz Stadion
Europa Conference League
SK RapidSCR
2 0
PaidePAI
Full Time
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 6 - 1
Marco Tilio - 38'
Louis Schaub - 82' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. SK Rapid 2–0 Paide. The result saw SK Rapid take the points. SK Rapid showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished SK Rapid 3.1 – 0.1 Paide. Possession was 65%–35%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation registered at a minimal 2.7 percent for SK Rapid.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Final outcome proved consistent with the 2.96 expected goals differential.
  • Market alignment: Result stayed aligned with overall expectations entering the fixture.
  • xG expectations: SK Rapid posted 3.06 expected goals while Paide recorded 0.1.
  • Event impact: The 2-0 win produced an 8-1 aggregate scoreline after the second leg.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards occurred so no distortion affected team balance.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Shurman
D. Shurman
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
O. Berkut
O. Berkut
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Matyash
V. Matyash
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Zabroda
K. Zabroda
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
SK Rapid J. Hoff Thorup
J. Hoff Thorup
VS
Paide T. Kink
T. Kink
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.6
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paide Rank: W
FC Santa Coloma Rank: W
FC Santa Coloma Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.6 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Rapid Rank: 64 L
Zira Rank: D
Zira Rank: W
Hegelmann Litauen Rank: W
Hegelmann Litauen Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SK Rapid
97.32%
Draw
1.91%
Away Paide
0.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
35.68
31.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Rapid
Paide
Power Score
35.68
31.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score
Paide — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Rapid Paide

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SK Rapid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Paide

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SK Rapid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paide
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.69
9.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
9.57
40.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Rapid +2.42 Efficiency Index
vs
Paide -2.42 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Rapid
Paide
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SK Rapid
vs
Paide
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Rapid Paide
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
33%
35%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs -0.04
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Rapid Paide
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
35%
33%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.04 vs +0.00
SK Rapid
Paide
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SK Rapid
vs
Paide
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SK Rapid Paide
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Rapid 0.33
Paide 0.07
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Rapid Paide
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SK Rapid 0.00
Paide 0.03
SK Rapid
Paide
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SCR had peak pressure around 35'.
  • SCR started the game with stronger pressure.
SCR Pressure PAI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SCR reached the top pressure at 35' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SK Rapid SCR Home
1 matches
Paide PAI Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
4
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
3.27
xG
1.37
1.37
xGA
3.27

Data last updated: 2026-08-13T00:00:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 6 - 1
Stadium
Allianz Stadion
Capacity
28345
Attendance
13705
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Denys Shurman
Oleksandr Berkut
Viktor Matyash
Klym Zabroda

Statistics

Possession
SCR
63%
PAI
37%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
11 Shots 0
69 Dangerous attacks 27
65 Possession 35
5 Corners 1
2 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

53 Ball Safe 78
1 Penalties 0
3 Goal Kicks 11
15 Goal Attempts 1
5 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 15
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1
20 Dribble Attempts 14
9 Successful Dribbles 6
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43

Attacking

108 Attacks 63
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

32 Long Passes 43
673 Passes 365
609 Successful Passes 296
90 Successful Passes Percentage 81
16 Key Passes 0
17 Successful Long Passes 16
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

1 Saves 5
14 Tackles 19
9 Interceptions 20

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 4
7 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

4 Offsides 3
11 Fouls 3

Lineup

Referee : Denys Shurman

Starting XI ▼

1
Niklas Hedl
Niklas Hedl Goalkeeper
6.92
2
Eaden Roka
Eaden Roka Defender
7.77
4
Jakob Schöller
Jakob Schöller (C) Defender
7.18
6
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Defender74'
6.46
23
Jonas Auer
Jonas Auer Defender
7.26
55
Nenad Cvetkovic
Nenad Cvetkovic Defender
6.83
15
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Nikolaus Wurmbrand Midfielder
7.87
21
Louis Schaub
Louis Schaub Midfielder
7.7
18
Matthias Seidl
Matthias Seidl
Midfielder84'
6.5
29
Romeo Amane
Romeo Amane Midfielder
6.92
30
Nicolas Bajlicz
Nicolas Bajlicz
Midfielder63'
6.57
43
Moulaye Haïdara
Moulaye Haïdara Midfielder
7.25
10
Petter Nosa Dahl
Petter Nosa Dahl
Attacker63'
6.45
7
Marco Tilio
Marco Tilio Attacker
8.09
8
Tonni Adamsen
Tonni Adamsen
Attacker63'
6.37
17
Tobias Gulliksen
Tobias Gulliksen Attacker
7.29
Referee : Denys Shurman

Starting XI ▼

99
Ebrima Jarju
Ebrima Jarju Goalkeeper
7.12
2
Michael Lilander
Michael Lilander Defender
5.85
3
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo Defender
7.4
15
Hindrek Ojamaa
Hindrek Ojamaa Defender
6.54
7
Edgar Tur
Edgar Tur
Defender68'
6.14
27
Nikita Baranov
Nikita Baranov Defender
6.74
10
Martin Miller
Martin Miller Midfielder
6.5
21
Ramon Smirnov
Ramon Smirnov
Midfielder46'
6.72
11
Pa Modou Sohna
Pa Modou Sohna Midfielder
6.34
8
Henrik Ojamaa
Henrik Ojamaa
Midfielder68'
6.51
28
Oskar Hoim
Oskar Hoim (C) Midfielder
6.7
6
Daniel Cabral
Daniel Cabral Attacker
6.74
9
Henri Anier
Henri Anier Attacker
5.98
20
Kristofer Piht
Kristofer Piht
Attacker84'
6.58
77
Daniel Luts
Daniel Luts Attacker
6.44
17
Pa Abdou Cham
Pa Abdou Cham
Midfielder84'
6.48

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Matthias Seidl  → Louis Schaub
10th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Pa Abdou Cham → Daniel Luts
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Kristofer Piht → Henri Anier
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Mika Laurikainen
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Louis Schaub
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
82'
81'
Event
Henri Anier
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Penalty awarded
79'
Event
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao → Jakob Schöller
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Louis Schaub
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
68'
Event
Henrik Ojamaa  → Pa Modou Sohna
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Edgar Tur → Hindrek Ojamaa
6th Substitution
Event
Tonni Adamsen → Marco Tilio
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Nicolas Bajlicz → Romeo Amane
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Petter Nosa Dahl → Moulaye Haïdara
4th Substitution
63'
46'
Event
Ramon Smirnov → Martin Miller
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Marco Tilio
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
38'
Event
Marco Tilio
Goal awarded
38'
Event
Jakob Schöller
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
37'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Eaden Roka Right Footed Shot Missed
88
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Nicolas Bajlicz Right Footed Shot Blocked
88
Corner Corner
Corner
84
Update Update
On Kristofer Piht，Off Henri Anier
84
Update Update
On Kristofer Piht，Off Henri Anier
84
Update Update
On Matthias Seidl，Off Louis Schaub
82
Update Update
On Pa Abdou Cham，Off Daniel Luts
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Penalty - Louis Schaub 2-0
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Penalty - Louis Schaub 2-0
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Henri Anier
74
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Tonni Adamsen Left Footed Shot Blocked
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Louis Schaub
74
Update Update
On Serge Raux Yao，Off Jakob Maximilian Scholler
73
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Henri Anier Left Footed Shot Saved
68
Update Update
On Edgar Tur，Off H.Henrik Ojamaa
68
Update Update
On Edgar Tur，Off H.Henrik Ojamaa
66
Update Update
On Henrik Ojamaa，Off Modou Pa Sohna
63
Update Update
On Petter Nosa Dahl，Off Moulaye Haidara
63
Update Update
On Nicolas Bajlicz，Off Amane Romeo
63
Update Update
On Tonni Adamsen，Off Marco Tilio
62
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Nikolaus Wurmbrand Left Footed Shot Missed
55
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen Head Shot Missed
55
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Moulaye Haidara Right Footed Shot Saved
54
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Louis Schaub Head Shot Missed
54
Corner Corner
Corner
46
Update Update
On Ramon Smirnov，Off Martin Miller
43
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Moulaye Haidara Left Footed Shot Blocked
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR Decision - Goal awarded - Marco Tilio
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Marco Tilio Left Footed Shot Goal
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Marco Tilio 1-0
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Jakob Maximilian Scholler
35
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Nikolaus Wurmbrand Right Footed Shot Missed
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Jakob Maximilian Scholler
34
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Marco Tilio Right Footed Shot Saved
33
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Moulaye Haidara Right Footed Shot Missed
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Moulaye Haidara Right Footed Shot Missed
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen Head Shot Missed
30
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jakob Maximilian Scholler Right Footed Shot Missed
27
Corner Corner
Corner
24
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Modou Pa Sohna Left Footed Shot Blocked
21
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Marco Tilio Left Footed Shot Saved
20
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Moulaye Haidara Head Shot Missed
20
Corner Corner
Corner
19
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Moulaye Haidara Head Shot Blocked
19
Corner Corner
Corner
14
Corner Corner
Corner
9
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Nikolaus Wurmbrand Right Footed Shot Saved
7
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen Right Footed Shot Missed
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Denys Shurman

CONCLUSION

SK Rapid completed a straightforward passage to the next stage by adding a 2-0 home win to their earlier advantage. Their dominance in possession and chance creation left little room for Paide to respond across both halves. The halftime lead of 1-0 provided a solid platform that was never seriously threatened. With expected goals heavily favoring the hosts the scoreline reflected the underlying performance metrics accurately. Absence of dismissals allowed both teams to maintain their intended structures until the final whistle. Overall the tie concluded with the stronger side progressing as anticipated from the outset. This outcome positions SK Rapid favorably for subsequent rounds in the competition.