Sirius vs GAIS preview

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Studenternas IP Sun, 24 May - 12:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Sirius SIR
2 1
GAIS GAIS
Full Time Sun, 24 May 12:00 PM
Round 9 Regular Season
Isak Bjerkebo - 6'
Victor Ekstrom - 44'
Goal
|
Goal
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson - 16'
Mohamed Soumah 80' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sirius 2–1 GAIS. The result saw Sirius take the points. Sirius showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 44%–56%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Sirius 2-1 GAIS. Sirius showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Rehnlund
P. Rehnlund
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Leek
P. Leek
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Holmegren
J. Holmegren
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Karlsson
K. Karlsson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sirius A. Engelmark
A. Engelmark
VS
GAIS F. Holmberg
F. Holmberg
2.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Djurgården Rank: 66 W
Örgryte Rank: 42 W
Kalmar Rank: 50 W
Häcken Rank: 61 D
Malmö FF Rank: 61 W
Västerås SK Rank: 49 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hammarby Rank: 70 W
Degerfors Rank: 48 D
Västerås SK Rank: 48 W
Örgryte Rank: 43 W
IFK Göteborg Rank: 55 D
Mjällby Rank: 69 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sirius
54.29%
Draw
24.49%
Away GAIS
21.22%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sirius
-39.87%
Draw
+18.84%
GAIS
+21.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.05
60.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sirius
GAIS
Power Score
65.05
60.04
League Position
1
8
Global Rank
334
484

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sirius — Opponent-weighted form score
GAIS — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sirius GAIS

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sirius

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

GAIS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sirius ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy GAIS
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.43
22.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.50
39.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sirius +1.69 Efficiency Index
vs
GAIS -1.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sirius
GAIS
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sirius ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy GAIS
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sirius GAIS
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sirius GAIS
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sirius
GAIS
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sirius
vs
GAIS
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sirius GAIS
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sirius 0.21
GAIS 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sirius GAIS
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sirius 0.01
GAIS 0.03
Sirius
GAIS
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GAIS had peak pressure around 59'.
  • SIR started the game with stronger pressure.
SIR Pressure GAIS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GAIS reached the top pressure at 59' (73.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sirius SIR Home
4 matches
GAIS GAIS Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
8
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-25T00:01:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Celic
Sweden
34 D. Celic
V. Ekström
Sweden
20 V. Ekström
O. Krusnell
Sweden
22 O. Krusnell
M. Soumah
Guinea
2 M. Soumah
H. Castegren
Sweden
5 (C) H. Castegren
V. Svensson
Substitution
Denmark
24 V. Svensson
M. Heier
Sweden
10 M. Heier
M. Lindberg
Denmark
6 M. Lindberg
O. Jönsson
Sweden
17 O. Jönsson
R. Ure
Substitution
Scotland
9 R. Ure
I. Bjerkebo
Substitution
Sweden
11 I. Bjerkebo
M. Krasniqi
Sweden
1 M. Krasniqi
R. Frej
Sweden
12 R. Frej
F. Beckman
Substitution
Sweden
24 F. Beckman
A. Cardaklija
Sweden
22 A. Cardaklija
A. Wängberg
Sweden
6 (C) A. Wängberg
R. Þorkelsson
Substitution
Iceland
17 R. Þorkelsson
J. Åberg
Sweden
7 J. Åberg
W. Milovanovic
Substitution
Sweden
8 W. Milovanovic
R. Niklasson Johansson
Sweden
11 R. Niklasson Johansson
S. Salter
Substitution
Canada
20 S. Salter
M. Andersson
Sweden
16 M. Andersson

General Information

Date & Time
May 24, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 9 · Regular Season
Stadium
Studenternas IP
Capacity
10000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Per Rehnlund
Pär Leek
Jasin Holmegren
Kristoffer Karlsson

Statistics

Possession
SIR
46%
GAIS
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 5
14 Shots 9
67 Dangerous attacks 72
44 Possession 56
7 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 69
18 Throwins 26
15 Dribble Attempts 16
5 Successful Dribbles 11
8 Goal Attempts 6
88 Ball Safe 82
4 Goal Kicks 6
4 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 0
1 Assists 1

Attacking

96 Attacks 112
1 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

391 Passes 504
82 Successful Passes Percentage 84
43 Long Passes 52
319 Successful Passes 421
11 Key Passes 6
24 Successful Long Passes 23
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

Defensive

46 Duels Won 55
18 Tackles 20
15 Interceptions 6
3 Saves 4

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 24
7 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

11 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

34
David Celic
David Celic Goalkeeper
7.1
2
Mohamed Soumah
Mohamed Soumah Defender
6.25
5
Henrik Castegren
Henrik Castegren (C) Defender
6.74
20
Victor Ekstrom
Victor Ekstrom Defender
7.11
22
Oscar Krusnell
Oscar Krusnell Defender
7.59
6
Marcus Lindberg
Marcus Lindberg Midfielder
7.45
10
Melker Heier
Melker Heier Midfielder
6.85
24
Victor Svensson
Victor Svensson Midfielder
7.28
21
Charlie Nildén
Charlie Nildén
Midfielder70'
6.37
9
Robbie Ure
Robbie Ure Attacker
6.48
8
Matthias Nartey
Matthias Nartey
Midfielder90+3'
11
Isak Bjerkebo
Isak Bjerkebo Attacker
7.07
15
Simon Sandberg
Simon Sandberg
Defender83'
6.59
17
Neo Jönsson
Neo Jönsson Attacker
8
Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

1
Mergim Krasniqi
Mergim Krasniqi Goalkeeper
6.85
6
August Wängberg
August Wängberg (C) Defender
6.82
12
Robin Frej
Robin Frej Defender
7.4
22
Anes Cardaklija
Anes Cardaklija Defender
6.83
24
Filip Beckman
Filip Beckman Defender
6.61
2
Matteo de Brienne
Matteo de Brienne
Defender61'
6.82
7
Joackim Åberg
Joackim Åberg Midfielder
6.83
8
William Milovanovic
William Milovanovic Midfielder
6.56
10
Henry Sletsjøe
Henry Sletsjøe
Midfielder70'
6.69
17
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson Midfielder
6.63
25
Jonas Lindberg
Jonas Lindberg
Midfielder82'
6.58
11
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson Attacker
7.71
16
M. Andersson
M. Andersson Attacker
6.76
20
S. Salter
S. Salter Attacker
6.8
21
S. Ekong
S. Ekong
Attacker82'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Matthias Nartey → Robbie Ure
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Simon Sandberg → Isak Bjerkebo
8th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Jonas Lindberg → Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
7th Substitution
82'
Event
S. Ekong → S. Salter
6th Substitution
81'
Event
S. Salter
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Mohamed Soumah
1st Redcard
80'
Event
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Charlie Nildén → Victor Svensson
3rd Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Henry Sletsjøe → William Milovanovic
5th Substitution
69'
Event
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Matteo de Brienne → Filip Beckman
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Victor Ekstrom
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
44'
31'
Event
Filip Beckman
2nd Yellowcard
16'
Event
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
13'
Event
Joackim Åberg
1st Yellowcard
Event
Isak Bjerkebo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Johansson's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Update Update
Matthias Nartey replaces Robbie Ure.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Simon Sandberg comes on for Isak Bjerkebo.
82
Update Update
Jonas Lindberg comes on for Robert Frosti Thorkelsson.
75
Attempt Attempt
Robbie Ure takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
70
Update Update
Henry Sletsjoe replaces William Milovanovic.
70
Update Update
Odera Samuel Adindu is on, and Neo Jonsson is off.
70
Update Update
Charlie Nilden comes on for Victor Svensson.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Johansson's right-footed shot is blocked.
70
Update Update
Oscar Pettersson replaces Max Andersson.
55
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Salter's header is saved.
82
Substitution Substitution
Shalom Ekong is substituted for Samuel Salter.
60
Attempt Attempt
Neo Jonsson's left-footed shot is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Pettersson takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Victor Ekstrom takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
61
Update Update
Matteo de Brienne is on, and Filip Beckman is off.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Victor Ekstrom takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
27
Attempt Attempt
Isak Bjerkebo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Salter's header is saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Neo Jonsson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filip Beckman receives a yellow card.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Victor Ekstrom takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Victor Ekstrom takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
22
Attempt Attempt
Robert Frosti Thorkelsson took a left-footed shot, but it was saved.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Rasmus Johansson scores with a right-footed shot.
43
Attempt Attempt
Melker Heier takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Isak Bjerkebo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
27
Attempt Attempt
Isak Bjerkebo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Victor Ekstrom takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
34
Attempt Attempt
William Milovanovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Isak Bjerkebo scores with a right-footed shot.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Victor Ekstrom takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
34
Attempt Attempt
Max Andersson's left-footed shot is saved.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Robbie Ure scores, making it 1-0.
2
Attempt Attempt
Neo Jonsson attempted a header but missed the shot.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Sirius 2-1 GAIS. Structural assessment: Sirius exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.