Shelbourne vs Nõmme Kalju preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Tolka Park Thu, 23 Jul - 6:45 PM
Europa Conference League
ShelbourneSHE
5 2
Nõmme KaljuKAL
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 6:45 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Sean Moore - 21', 47'
Ali Coote - 25'
Dan Ring - 89'
Goal
|
Goal
Enrique Esono - 40', 90+1'

CONTEXT

Shelbourne welcomed Nõmme Kalju for the opening leg of their tie and delivered a 5-2 triumph. The hosts established an early advantage by going 3-1 ahead at the interval. Shelbourne controlled the ball for 55 percent of the match while the away side held 45 percent. The stronger team demonstrated clear superiority and claimed the victory as anticipated. Absence of red cards allowed uninterrupted play across both halves. A notable 37.4 percent deviation underscored the home side's effective approach. Efficiency levels stayed consistent with expectations from start to finish. The lack of expected goals figures limited deeper statistical comparison. Nevertheless the result highlighted Shelbourne's attacking prowess on home soil.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Shelbourne recorded a significant 37.4 percent deviation from pre-match levels.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to assess alignment.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved aligned with pre-match expectations.
  • xG expectations: No xG expectations could be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: The 3-1 halftime lead shaped the final 5-2 result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred and thus no distortion took place.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Kovacs
S. Kovacs
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Badea
M. Badea
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Vornicu
A. Vornicu
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Roman
G. Roman
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Shelbourne J. Russell
J. Russell
VS
Nõmme Kalju N. Andreev
N. Andreev
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Linfield Rank: 47 D
Linfield Rank: 48 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Shelbourne
62.62%
Draw
23.51%
Away Nõmme Kalju
13.88%

Movement

Changes since opening
Shelbourne
-30.52%
Draw
+19.42%
Nõmme Kalju
+11.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
37.04
36.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shelbourne
Nõmme Kalju
Power Score
37.04
36.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Shelbourne — Opponent-weighted form score
Nõmme Kalju — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Shelbourne Nõmme Kalju

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Shelbourne

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nõmme Kalju

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Shelbourne ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nõmme Kalju
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.91
23.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.56
45.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Shelbourne +2.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Nõmme Kalju -2.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Shelbourne
Nõmme Kalju
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Shelbourne ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nõmme Kalju
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Shelbourne Nõmme Kalju
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Shelbourne Nõmme Kalju
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Shelbourne
Nõmme Kalju
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Shelbourne
vs
Nõmme Kalju
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Shelbourne Nõmme Kalju
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Shelbourne 0.34
Nõmme Kalju 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Shelbourne Nõmme Kalju
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Shelbourne 0.06
Nõmme Kalju 0.08
Shelbourne
Nõmme Kalju
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SHE had peak pressure around 77'.
  • SHE started the game with stronger pressure.
SHE Pressure KAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SHE reached the top pressure at 77' (63.71).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Tolka Park
Capacity
9681
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Szabolcs Kovacs
Marius Florin Badea
Adrian Vornicu
George Cătălin Roman

Statistics

Possession
SHE
56%
KAL
44%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 2
10 Shots 4
65 Dangerous attacks 32
55 Possession 45
12 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 6
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

74 Ball Safe 89
19 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 3
19 Throwins 26

Attacking

106 Attacks 89

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
4 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Szabolcs Kovacs

Starting XI ▼

19
Eddie Beach
Eddie Beach Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Kameron Ledwidge
Kameron Ledwidge Defender
6.26
15
Sam Bone
Sam Bone
Defender81'
6.26
18
James Norris
James Norris Defender
6.05
25
Milan Mbeng
Milan Mbeng Defender
6.05
29
Paddy Barrett
Paddy Barrett (C) Defender
6.05
14
Ali Coote
Ali Coote Midfielder
6.57
23
Kerr McInroy
Kerr McInroy
Midfielder66'
6.37
17
Daniel Kelly
Daniel Kelly Midfielder
6.38
21
Jack Henry-Francis
Jack Henry-Francis Midfielder
6.37
6
JJ Lunney
JJ Lunney
Midfielder81'
6.37
27
Evan Caffrey
Evan Caffrey Midfielder
6.38
20
Rodrigo Freitas
Rodrigo Freitas Attacker
7.19
44
Dan Ring
Dan Ring
Attacker81'
6.82
22
Sean Moore
Sean Moore Attacker
2
7.36
36
Will Jarvis
Will Jarvis
Attacker75'
6.55
Referee : Szabolcs Kovacs

Starting XI ▼

1
Henri Perk
Henri Perk (C) Goalkeeper
5.11
20
Modou Tambedou
Modou Tambedou Defender
5.51
22
Aleksandr Nikolajev
Aleksandr Nikolajev Defender
5.7
4
Alex Boronilstsikov
Alex Boronilstsikov
Defender58'
6.26
46
Roko Vukušić
Roko Vukušić Defender
5.51
50
Maksim Podholjuzin
Maksim Podholjuzin Defender
5.86
21
Tiago Baptista
Tiago Baptista
Midfielder30'
6.27
78
Danyl Mashchenko
Danyl Mashchenko Defender
5.51
8
Oleksandr Musolitin
Oleksandr Musolitin Midfielder
5.99
10
Nikita Ivanov
Nikita Ivanov Midfielder
6.23
11
Mihhail Orlov
Mihhail Orlov
Attacker58'
6.46
17
Enrique Esono
Enrique Esono Midfielder
2
6.65
26
Rommi Siht
Rommi Siht Midfielder
6.14
59
Bogdan Vastsuk
Bogdan Vastsuk Midfielder
6.09
88
Daniil Sotsugov
Daniil Sotsugov
Defender77'
6.26

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Enrique Esono
Field Goal / 7th Goal
Event
Dan Ring
Field Goal / 6th Goal
89'
Event
Sam Bone → Kameron Ledwidge
7th Substitution
81'
Event
JJ Lunney → Jack Henry-Francis
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Dan Ring → Rodrigo Freitas
9th Substitution
81'
77'
Event
Daniil Sotsugov → Bogdan Vastsuk
6th Substitution
Event
Will Jarvis → Sean Moore
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Kerr McInroy  → Ali Coote
4th Substitution
66'
58'
Event
Alex Boronilstsikov → Aleksandr Nikolajev
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Mihhail Orlov → Nikita Ivanov
3rd Substitution
Event
Sean Moore
Field Goal / 5th Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Enrique Esono
Field Goal / 4th Goal
30'
Event
Tiago Baptista → Maksim Podholjuzin
1st Substitution
Event
Ali Coote
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
25'
Event
Sean Moore
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
21'
7'
Event
Maksim Podholjuzin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Rodrigo Freitas
Field Goal / 1st Goal
3'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 5-2.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 5-1.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Update Update
On comes Sam Bone, off goes Kameron Ledwidge.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Update Update
Daniel Ring is on, and Rodrigo Freitas is off.
77
Update Update
Daniil Sotsugov is on, and Bogdan Vastsuk is off.
75
Update Update
William Jarvis is on, and Sean Moore is off.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Update Update
Kerr McInroy is on, and Ali Coote is off.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Substitution Substitution
Mihhail Orlov is substituted for Nikita Ivanov.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 4-1.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-1.
30
Update Update
Tiago Baptista is coming on for Maksim Podholjuzin.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-0.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sean Moore scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Evan Caffrey.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Szabolcs Kovacs.

CONCLUSION

The match concluded with Shelbourne securing a comprehensive win over Nõmme Kalju. Their ability to maintain pressure after the halftime break proved decisive in extending the lead to 5-2. Possession dominance translated into tangible results on the scoreboard. With no disciplinary issues arising the game flowed smoothly allowing both teams to showcase their styles. This victory provides Shelbourne with a solid platform for the upcoming second leg. The significant deviation in performance metrics reflected the home team's preparedness and execution. Overall the contest served as a strong statement from the stronger side in the tie. Future matches may see adjustments from the visitors to counter such dominance.