Shelbourne vs Ajax preview
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Tolka Park
Today - 6:45 PM
3rd Qualifying Round ·
Leg 2 of 2 ·
Aggregate : 3 - 5
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 13
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Shelbourne 2–2 Ajax. The match ended in a draw. Ajax showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. xG finished Shelbourne 0.8 – 1.1 Ajax. Possession was 28%–72%.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Ajax showed significant deviation from pre-match expectations in this fixture.
-
Efficiency shift: Both teams performed in line with their efficiency metrics throughout the match.
-
xG alignment: The 2-2 result proved consistent with the expected goals distribution of 0.84 to 1.11.
-
Market alignment: The draw outcome did not align with pre-match market positioning for the stronger side.
-
xG expectations: Ajax held a modest xG advantage that did not translate into a winning margin.
-
Event impact: The second leg draw produced a 5-7 aggregate that ended the tie for Shelbourne.
-
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the match proceeded without any numerical imbalance.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Ruivo Pereira
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
30.4
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
4
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
T. Pereira Costa
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
N. Cunha
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
I. Vasilica
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
J. Russell
VS
M. Sánchez Muñoz
1
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
3
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ajax
Rank: 81
L
Nõmme Kalju
Rank:
L
Nõmme Kalju
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Shelbourne
Rank:
W
Vojvodina
Rank:
W
Vojvodina
Rank:
W
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Shelbourne
8.62%
Draw
15.83%
Ajax
75.56%
Movement
Changes since opening
Shelbourne
+3.8%
Draw
-72.3%
Ajax
+68.51%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.74
37.87
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shelbourne
Ajax
Power Score
20.74
37.87
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Shelbourne
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Ajax
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Shelbourne Ajax
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Shelbourne
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Ajax
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Shelbourne
vs
Ajax
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Shelbourne
Ajax
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
37%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.31
vs
-0.19
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Shelbourne
Ajax
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
17%
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.19
vs
-0.31
Shelbourne
Ajax
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Shelbourne
vs
Ajax
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Shelbourne
Ajax
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Shelbourne
0.00
Ajax
0.00
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Shelbourne
Ajax
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Shelbourne
0.00
Ajax
0.00
Shelbourne
Ajax
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- SHE had peak pressure around 60'.
- AJA started the game with stronger pressure.
SHE Pressure
AJA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
SHE reached the top pressure at 60' (89.41).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Shelbourne
SHE
Home
1
matches
Ajax
AJA
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0.20
xG
6.61
6.61
xGA
0.20
Data last updated: 2026-08-13T18:30:19+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-5-2
Match Formation
4-3-3
General Information
Date & Time
Aug 13, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 5
Stadium
Tolka Park
Capacity
9681
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Cláudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
Tiago José Pereira Costa
Nélson Cunha
Iancu Ioan Vasilica
Next Match
Ajax
vs
SC Heerenveen
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sun, 16 Aug - 2:45 PM
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena
Statistics
Possession
SHE
32%
AJA
68%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
2
1
Big Chances Created
3
5
Shots
6
24
Dangerous attacks
52
28
Possession
72
4
Corners
11
12
Free kicks
10
3
Yellow Cards
2
Match Overview
7
Goal Kicks
9
5
Substitutions
5
10
Throwins
15
0
Hit Woodwork
1
2
Assists
1
17
Dribble Attempts
14
6
Successful Dribbles
7
35
Successful Dribbles Percentage
50
Attacking
51
Attacks
140
0
Big Chances Missed
3
Possession
47
Long Passes
38
263
Passes
682
211
Successful Passes
625
80
Successful Passes Percentage
92
9
Key Passes
14
24
Successful Long Passes
27
51
Successful Long Passes Percentage
71
Defensive
5
Saves
3
18
Tackles
20
9
Interceptions
5
Build-up
8
Total Crosses
22
2
Accurate Crosses
7
Discipline
6
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
12
Lineup
Referee :
Cláudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
Manager ▼
J. Russell
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
Referee :
Cláudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
Manager ▼
M. Sánchez Muñoz
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
Events
2ND-HALF
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
85'
9th Substitution
81'
10th Substitution
81'
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
74'
7th Substitution
72'
8th Substitution
72'
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
70'
70'
6th Substitution
69'
5th Substitution
Goal disallowed
65'
4th Substitution
60'
57'
2nd Substitution
57'
3rd Substitution
46'
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
27'
25'
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
24'
23'
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
The 2-2 draw between Shelbourne and Ajax delivered a balanced conclusion to the two-legged tie. Despite Ajax holding clear advantages in possession and expected goals the home side showed resilience to claim a share of the points. Halftime saw the visitors ahead yet Shelbourne adjusted effectively after the break to erase the deficit. The absence of any dismissals allowed both teams to maintain their planned structures until the final whistle. Overall the result matched the xG profile while highlighting how efficiency can offset territorial dominance. Ajax progressed on aggregate but the performance left room for reflection on converting superiority into decisive results. This encounter illustrated the fine margins that define knockout football at this level.
Match Commentary