Shamrock Rovers vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Tallaght Stadium Tue, 4 Aug - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Shamrock RoversSHA
3 1
Egnatia RrogozhinëEGN
Full Time Tue, 4 Aug 7:00 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Graham Burke - 29' (P)
Aaron Greene - 57'
Goal
|
Goal
Aaron Greene - 41'

CONTEXT

Shamrock Rovers defeated Egnatia Rrogozhine 3-1 in the opening leg of their knockout tie. The sides were even at halftime with the score at 1-1. Shamrock Rovers held 59 percent possession while Egnatia Rrogozhine had 41 percent. The home team as the stronger side managed to turn the game in their favor during the second half. No disciplinary issues arose as both teams finished with eleven players. The significant deviation of 43.5 percent associated with Shamrock Rovers proved consistent with the final result. This performance positions them favorably ahead of the return fixture. The match proceeded without major disruptions and concluded with the expected winner claiming the points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Shamrock Rovers showed a significant 43.5 percent deviation in the match outcome.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's expected output.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The final result was consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: No specific xG expectations were available from the match data.
  • Event impact: The 3-1 scoreline established a two goal lead for the home side after leg one.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant there was no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Treimanis
A. Treimanis
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
H. Gudermanis
H. Gudermanis
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Spasjoņņikovs
A. Spasjoņņikovs
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Golubevs
A. Golubevs
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Shamrock Rovers S. Bradley
S. Bradley
VS
Egnatia Rrogozhinë N. Dede
N. Dede
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Shamrock Rovers
56.47%
Draw
26.62%
Away Egnatia Rrogozhinë
16.92%

Movement

Changes since opening
Shamrock Rovers
-40.85%
Draw
+24.71%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
+16.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30
30
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Power Score
30
30
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Shamrock Rovers — Opponent-weighted form score
Egnatia Rrogozhinë — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Shamrock Rovers Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Shamrock Rovers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Shamrock Rovers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.83
16.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.95
29.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Shamrock Rovers +0.67 Efficiency Index
vs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë -0.67 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Shamrock Rovers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Shamrock Rovers Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Shamrock Rovers Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Shamrock Rovers
vs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Shamrock Rovers Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Shamrock Rovers 0.19
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Shamrock Rovers Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Shamrock Rovers 0.03
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.04
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SHA had peak pressure around 13'.
  • SHA started the game with stronger pressure.
SHA Pressure EGN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SHA reached the top pressure at 13' (58.17).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 04, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Tallaght Stadium
Capacity
10300
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andris Treimanis
Haralds Gudermanis
Aleksejs Spasjoņņikovs
Aleksandrs Golubevs

Statistics

Possession
SHA
58%
EGN
42%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
6 Shots 3
72 Dangerous attacks 39
59 Possession 41
5 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 16

Attacking

102 Attacks 85

Defensive

1 Saves 5

Discipline

9 Offsides 0
8 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Andris Treimanis

Starting XI ▼

1
Ed McGinty
Ed McGinty Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Enda Stevens
Enda Stevens Defender
6.26
4
Roberto Lopes
Roberto Lopes (C) Defender
6.45
22
Tunmise Sobowale
Tunmise Sobowale Defender
6.26
7
Dylan Watts
Dylan Watts Midfielder
6.33
28
Naj Razi
Naj Razi
Midfielder69'
6.5
8
Matthew Healy
Matthew Healy Midfielder
6.37
19
Adam Brennan
Adam Brennan Midfielder
6.37
11
Jake Mulraney
Jake Mulraney
Midfielder46'
6.5
24
Will Fitzgerald
Will Fitzgerald Midfielder
6.37
29
Jack Byrne
Jack Byrne Midfielder
6.77
26
John O'Sullivan
John O'Sullivan
Midfielder77'
6.5
9
Aaron Greene
Aaron Greene Attacker
7.1
18
Jonathan Afolabi
Jonathan Afolabi
Attacker58'
6.5
10
Graham Burke
Graham Burke Attacker
6.67
14
Daniel Mandroiu
Daniel Mandroiu
Midfielder68'
6.5
Referee : Andris Treimanis

Starting XI ▼

98
Mario Dajsinani
Mario Dajsinani (C) Goalkeeper
5.68
4
Zamiq Aliyev
Zamiq Aliyev Defender
5.88
24
Numan Ajetovikj
Numan Ajetovikj
Defender69'
6.5
22
Guillem Jaime
Guillem Jaime Defender
5.72
28
Eljon Sota
Eljon Sota Defender
5.88
33
Eneo Bitri
Eneo Bitri Defender
5.88
7
Fernando Medeiros
Fernando Medeiros Midfielder
6.18
8
Ibrahim Diabaté
Ibrahim Diabaté Midfielder
6.37
10
Alessandro Albanese
Alessandro Albanese
Midfielder46'
6.23
17
Altin Kryeziu
Altin Kryeziu Midfielder
6.18
29
Andrey Yago
Andrey Yago Midfielder
6.18
16
Edison Ndreca
Edison Ndreca
Defender81'
6.5
77
Ildi Gruda
Ildi Gruda Midfielder
6.33
20
Karim Loukili
Karim Loukili
Midfielder46'
6.27
2
Daniel Adjessa
Daniel Adjessa Attacker
6.46
99
Jurguens Montenegro
Jurguens Montenegro
Attacker46'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
81'
Event
Edison Ndreca → Andrey Yago
10th Substitution
Event
John O'Sullivan → Jack Byrne
9th Substitution
77'
Event
Naj Razi → Dylan Watts
8th Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Numan Ajetovikj → Zamiq Aliyev
7th Substitution
Event
Daniel Mandroiu  → Graham Burke
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Dylan Watts
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Jonathan Afolabi → Aaron Greene
5th Substitution
58'
Event
Aaron Greene
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
57'
Event
Roberto Lopes 
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
55'
47'
Event
Alessandro Albanese
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jake Mulraney → Adam Brennan
4th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Alessandro Albanese → Ibrahim Diabaté
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Karim Loukili → Ildi Gruda
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Jurguens Montenegro → Daniel Adjessa
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Aaron Greene
Own Goal / 1st Goal
41'
Event
Guillem Jaime
Goalkeeper save
38'
Event
Ildi Gruda
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Graham Burke
Penalty / 1st Penalty
29'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Update Update
Edison Ndreca comes on for Andrey Yago.
69
Substitution Substitution
Numan Ajetovikj is substituted off for Zamiq Aliyev.
69
Update Update
Daniel Mandroiu replaces Graham Burke.
69
Update Update
On Naj Razi, off Dylan Watts.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dylan Watts receives a yellow card.
58
Update Update
Jonathan Afolabi replaces Aaron Greene.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jack Byrne scores, making it 3-1.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Update Update
Jake Mulraney is on, and Adam Brennan is off.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Alessandro Albanese.
46
Substitution Substitution
Jake Mulraney is substituted off for Aaron Greene.
46
Update Update
Jurguens Montenegro is on, and Daniel Adjessa is off.
46
Update Update
Karim Loukili comes on for Ildi Gruda.
46
Update Update
Alessandro Albanese comes on for Ibrahim Diabaté.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Guillem Jaime scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
40
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved by Guillem Jaime.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ildi Gruda.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Graham Burke scores, making it 1-0.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Andris Treimanis.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Shamrock Rovers 3-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Structural assessment: Shamrock Rovers exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.