Shamrock Rovers vs Ararat-Armenia preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Tallaght Stadium Tue, 28 Jul - 7:00 PM
Champions League
Shamrock RoversSHA
2 1
Ararat-ArmeniaARAR2
Full Time Tue, 28 Jul 7:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 3
Aaron Greene - 36'
Goal
|
Goal
Sandro Lima - 73'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Shamrock Rovers 2–1 Ararat-Armenia. The result saw Shamrock Rovers take the points. Shamrock Rovers showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 61%–39%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Shamrock Rovers produced a significant deviation from pre-match expectations by winning the match.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded so alignment with expected goals could not be determined.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome aligned with the pre-match market projection.
  • xG expectations: Absence of xG figures prevented any evaluation against expected goals.
  • Event impact: The halftime score of 2-0 shaped the second-half dynamics leading to the 2-1 result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics remained undistorted by dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Barrott
S. Barrott
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
W. Smith
W. Smith
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. James
A. James
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Kitchen
A. Kitchen
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Shamrock Rovers S. Bradley
S. Bradley
VS
Ararat-Armenia M. da Silva Cruz
M. da Silva Cruz
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ararat-Armenia Rank: L
Floriana Rank: W
Floriana Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Shamrock Rovers Rank: W
Riga Rank: L
Riga Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Shamrock Rovers
60.16%
Draw
23.32%
Away Ararat-Armenia
16.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Shamrock Rovers
-35.89%
Draw
+20.01%
Ararat-Armenia
+15.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.33
36.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shamrock Rovers
Ararat-Armenia
Power Score
23.33
36.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Shamrock Rovers — Opponent-weighted form score
Ararat-Armenia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Shamrock Rovers Ararat-Armenia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Shamrock Rovers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ararat-Armenia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Shamrock Rovers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ararat-Armenia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.75
16.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.92
29.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Shamrock Rovers +1.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Ararat-Armenia -1.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Shamrock Rovers
Ararat-Armenia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Shamrock Rovers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ararat-Armenia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Shamrock Rovers Ararat-Armenia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Shamrock Rovers Ararat-Armenia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Shamrock Rovers
Ararat-Armenia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Shamrock Rovers
vs
Ararat-Armenia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Shamrock Rovers Ararat-Armenia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Shamrock Rovers 0.24
Ararat-Armenia 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Shamrock Rovers Ararat-Armenia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Shamrock Rovers 0.03
Ararat-Armenia 0.03
Shamrock Rovers
Ararat-Armenia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SHA had peak pressure around 92'.
  • SHA started the game with stronger pressure.
SHA Pressure ARAR2 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SHA reached the top pressure at 92' (79.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Shamrock Rovers SHA Home
1 matches
Ararat-Armenia ARAR2 Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-29T00:02:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 28, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 3
Stadium
Tallaght Stadium
Capacity
10500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Samuel Barrott
Wade Smith
Alex James
Andrew Kitchen

Statistics

Possession
SHA
61%
ARAR2
39%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
8 Shots 4
63 Dangerous attacks 32
61 Possession 39
7 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
23 Throwins 19

Attacking

87 Attacks 56

Defensive

0 Saves 5

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

1
Ed McGinty
Ed McGinty Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Roberto Lopes
Roberto Lopes (C) Defender
6.25
5
Lee Grace
Lee Grace Defender
6.26
14
Daniel Mandroiu
Daniel Mandroiu
Midfielder85'
6.5
22
Tunmise Sobowale
Tunmise Sobowale Defender
6.26
7
Dylan Watts
Dylan Watts Midfielder
6.37
28
Naj Razi
Naj Razi
Midfielder85'
6.5
8
Matthew Healy
Matthew Healy Midfielder
6.57
11
Jake Mulraney
Jake Mulraney Midfielder
6.37
3
Enda Stevens
Enda Stevens
Defender77'
6.5
19
Adam Brennan
Adam Brennan Midfielder
6.37
29
Jack Byrne
Jack Byrne Midfielder
6.48
9
Aaron Greene
Aaron Greene Attacker
7.19
18
Jonathan Afolabi
Jonathan Afolabi
Attacker77'
6.5
10
Graham Burke
Graham Burke Attacker
6.46
31
Michael Noonan
Michael Noonan
Attacker88'
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

98
João Bravim
João Bravim Goalkeeper
5.88
2
Hugo Oliveira
Hugo Oliveira Defender
6.05
5
Luis Felipe
Luis Felipe
Defender90+4'
3
Junior Julio
Junior Julio Defender
6.04
16
Edgar Grigoryan
Edgar Grigoryan Defender
6.05
43
Bruno Wilson
Bruno Wilson Defender
6.04
47
Alexandros Malis
Alexandros Malis Defender
6.05
11
Zidane Banjaqui
Zidane Banjaqui Midfielder
6.27
7
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Midfielder84'
6.5
17
Maxence Carlier
Maxence Carlier Midfielder
6.27
6
Michel Ayvazyan
Michel Ayvazyan
Midfielder84'
6.5
19
Karen Muradyan
Karen Muradyan (C) Midfielder
6.27
77
Artur Serobyan
Artur Serobyan Midfielder
6.27
95
Carlos França
Carlos França
Midfielder72'
6.56
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
6.79
25
Alioune Ndour
Alioune Ndour
Attacker90+4'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Luis Felipe → Hugo Oliveira
9th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Alioune Ndour → Sandro Lima
10th Substitution
Event
Michael Noonan → Graham Burke
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Daniel Mandroiu  → Lee Grace
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Naj Razi → Dylan Watts
7th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Michel Ayvazyan → Maxence Carlier
4th Substitution
84'
Event
Zhirayr Shaghoyan → Zidane Banjaqui
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Carlos França
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Bruno Wilson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jonathan Afolabi → Aaron Greene
2nd Substitution
77'
Event
Enda Stevens → Jake Mulraney
3rd Substitution
77'
73'
Event
Sandro Lima
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
72'
Event
Carlos França → Artur Serobyan
1st Substitution
Event
Roberto Lopes 
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
58'
50'
Event
Junior Julio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Aaron Greene
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
36'
Event
Matthew Healy
Field Goal / 1st Goal
11'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
On Luis Felipe Hungria Martins，Off Hugo Oliveira
90
Update Update
On Alioune Ndour，Off Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima
88
Update Update
On Michael Noonan，Off Graham Burke
85
Update Update
On Daniel Mandroiu，Off Lee Grace
85
Update Update
On Naj Razi，Off Dylan Watts
84
Update Update
On Michel Ayvazyan，Off Maxence Carlier
84
Update Update
On Zhirayr Shaghoyan，Off Zidane Banjaqui
84
Corner Corner
Corner
83
Corner Corner
Corner
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Carlos Franca
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Bruno Wilson
79
Corner Corner
Corner
77
Update Update
On Enda Stevens，Off Jake Mulraney
77
Corner Corner
Corner
76
Corner Corner
Corner
76
Corner Corner
Corner
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 2-1
72
Update Update
On Carlos Franca，Off Artur Serobyan
61
Corner Corner
Corner
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Roberto Lopes
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Junior Bueno
45
Corner Corner
Corner
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 2-0
24
Corner Corner
Corner
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 1-0
7
Corner Corner
Corner
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Samuel Barrott

CONCLUSION

Shamrock Rovers completed a 2-1 home win that leveled the aggregate after trailing from the first leg. Their early second-half goals created a platform that Ararat-Armenia could not fully dismantle despite a late response. Possession dominance and the clean disciplinary record supported the home side's control throughout the ninety minutes. The absence of xG metrics leaves efficiency assessments reliant on the observed scoreline and possession split. Market projections correctly anticipated the direction of the result even with the noted deviation magnitude. This outcome concludes the tie on aggregate terms and highlights the impact of the opening period on the overall progression path.