Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano preview

Spain flag 2026/2027 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
La Liga
SevillaSEV
2 1
Rayo VallecanoRAY
Full Time
Round 1 Regular Season
Jon Guridi - 52' (P)
Peque Fernández - 90+7' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Kike Salas 88' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Sevilla defeated Rayo Vallecano 2-1 in a contest defined by a halftime deficit and a second-half turnaround. Rayo took the lead before the break to lead 1-0 at halftime, yet Sevilla responded with two goals after the interval to claim the points. The home side posted 2.56 expected goals against 1.65 for the visitors, producing a differential of 0.91 that aligned with the final result. Possession finished nearly level at 49 percent for Sevilla and 51 percent for Rayo. A red card issued to Sevilla introduced numerical imbalance, but the home team still secured victory over the stronger-rated opponent. The outcome proved consistent with underlying metrics and reflected significant structural deviation from anticipated patterns. Sevilla demonstrated clear second-half adjustments that overcame both the early deficit and the dismissal.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sevilla recorded significant structural deviation by defeating the stronger-rated side.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with overall performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment showed Sevilla at 2.56 against Rayo Vallecano at 1.65.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment remained true to the observed match outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were fulfilled by the home side's chance creation.
  • Event impact: Event impact featured a comeback from the 0-1 halftime scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion occurred via one home-team dismissal in the second half.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. De Burgos Bengoetxea
R. De Burgos Bengoetxea
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
I. De Francisco Grijalba
I. De Francisco Grijalba
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana
A. Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. García Gómez
M. García Gómez
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sevilla L. García Plaza
L. García Plaza
VS
Rayo Vallecano B. San José Gil
B. San José Gil
1.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celta de Vigo Rank: 82 L
Real Madrid Rank: 94 L
Villarreal Rank: 87 W
Espanyol Rank: 77 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 W
Osasuna Rank: 78 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 80 W
Villarreal Rank: 87 W
Valencia Rank: 82 D
Girona Rank: 77 D
Getafe Rank: 79 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.2
81.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
Power Score
77.2
81.28
League Position
2
19
Global Rank
109
67

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sevilla — Opponent-weighted form score
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sevilla Rayo Vallecano

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sevilla

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rayo Vallecano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sevilla ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rayo Vallecano
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.02
14.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.22
31.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sevilla +1.55 Efficiency Index
vs
Rayo Vallecano -1.55 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sevilla
vs
Rayo Vallecano
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sevilla Rayo Vallecano
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
72%
17%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.17 vs -0.28
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sevilla Rayo Vallecano
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
17%
72%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.28 vs +0.17
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sevilla
vs
Rayo Vallecano
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sevilla Rayo Vallecano
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sevilla 0.30
Rayo Vallecano 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sevilla Rayo Vallecano
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sevilla 0.04
Rayo Vallecano 0.05
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAY had peak pressure around 95'.
  • RAY started the game with stronger pressure.
SEV Pressure RAY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAY reached the top pressure at 95' (91.79).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sevilla SEV Home
4 matches
Rayo Vallecano RAY Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-16T00:11:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 La Liga, Spain · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Capacity
42714
Attendance
36777
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Iker De Francisco Grijalba
Asier Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana
Manuel García Gómez

Statistics

Possession
SEV
51%
RAY
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 3
44 Dangerous attacks 25
49 Possession 51
1 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

78 Ball Safe 82
2 Penalties 0
6 Goal Kicks 9
5 Substitutions 5
35 Throwins 25
20 Successful Headers 19
12 Dribble Attempts 18
4 Successful Dribbles 8
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

Attacking

123 Attacks 82
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

65 Long Passes 61
318 Passes 336
232 Successful Passes 245
73 Successful Passes Percentage 73
6 Key Passes 4
25 Successful Long Passes 19
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

Defensive

2 Saves 2
20 Tackles 18
8 Interceptions 10
62 Duels Won 63

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 15
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
18 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Starting XI ▼

1
Odysseas Vlachodimos
Odysseas Vlachodimos Goalkeeper
6.6
2
Juan Iglesias
Juan Iglesias Defender
6.99
4
Kike Salas
Kike Salas Defender
6.63
12
Arouna Sangante
Arouna Sangante Defender
6.22
17
Gabriel Suazo
Gabriel Suazo (C) Defender
6.59
6
Lucien Agoumé
Lucien Agoumé Midfielder
6.76
18
Jon Guridi
Jon Guridi Midfielder
6.95
28
Manu Bueno
Manu Bueno
Midfielder82'
6.63
19
Oso
Oso Midfielder
6.5
21
Chidera Ejuke
Chidera Ejuke
Attacker78'
6.39
27
Nico Guillén
Nico Guillén Midfielder
6.73
10
Peque Fernández
Peque Fernández
Attacker46'
7.09
30
Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega
Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega Midfielder
6.99
11
Rubén Vargas
Rubén Vargas
Midfielder70'
6.48
16
Isaac Romero
Isaac Romero Attacker
6.57
9
Robbie Ure
Robbie Ure
Attacker46'
7.07
Referee : Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Starting XI ▼

13
Augusto Batalla
Augusto Batalla Goalkeeper
6.54
2
Andrei Rațiu
Andrei Rațiu Defender
6.45
6
Pathé Ciss
Pathé Ciss Defender
6.57
20
Iván Balliu
Iván Balliu Defender
6.24
24
Florian Lejeune
Florian Lejeune Defender
7
7
Isi Palazón
Isi Palazón Midfielder
6.84
10
Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello
Attacker64'
6.32
8
Unai López
Unai López Midfielder
6.96
4
Pedro Díaz
Pedro Díaz
Midfielder78'
6.74
18
Álvaro García
Álvaro García Midfielder
6.71
21
Fran Pérez
Fran Pérez
Attacker70'
6.4
19
Jorge de Frutos
Jorge de Frutos Midfielder
6.44
23
Óscar Valentín
Óscar Valentín (C) Midfielder
6.69
22
Pelayo Fernández
Pelayo Fernández
Defender78'
6.18
11
Randy Nteka
Randy Nteka Attacker
6.21
9
Alemão
Alemão
Attacker65'
6.33

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lucien Agoumé
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+12'
90+12'
Event
Alemão
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Peque Fernández
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
90+7'
Event
Kike Salas
Foul / 1st Redcard
88'
Event
Manu Bueno → Jon Guridi
10th Substitution
82'
Event
Gabriel Suazo 
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Chidera Ejuke → Oso
8th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Pedro Díaz → Unai López
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Pelayo Fernández → Óscar Valentín 
9th Substitution
76'
Event
Fran Pérez
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Unai López
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Rubén Vargas → Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega
6th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Fran Pérez → Álvaro García
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Álvaro García
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Alemão → Randy Nteka
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Sergio Camello → Isi Palazón
3rd Substitution
Event
Jon Guridi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Jon Guridi
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
52'
Event
Peque Fernández → Nico Guillén
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Robbie Ure → Isaac Romero
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Isaac Romero
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+3'
Event
Isaac Romero
Penalty disallowed
38'
4'
Event
Álvaro García
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Alexandre Zurawski
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Juan Antonio Iglesias Sanchez
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Lucien Agoume
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Peque Fernandez Right Footed Shot Goal
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Peque Fernandez Right Footed Shot Goal
88
Red Card Red Card Important
Red Card - Enrique Jesus Salas Valiente
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alexandre Zurawski Head Shot Saved
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alexandre Zurawski Head Shot Saved
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Florian Lejeune Right Footed Shot Saved
86
Red Card Red Card Important
Red Card - Enrique Jesus Salas Valiente
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alexandre Zurawski Head Shot Saved
84
Red Card Red Card Important
Red Card - Enrique Jesus Salas Valiente
82
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alexandre Zurawski Head Shot Saved
81
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Alexandre Zurawski Head Shot Saved
78
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Florian Lejeune Right Footed Shot Saved
78
Update Update
Offside
78
Corner Corner
Corner
77
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Florian Lejeune Head Shot Missed
75
Update Update
On Manuel Bueno Sebastian，Off Jon Guridi
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Gabriel Suazo
70
Update Update
On Pelayo Fernandez，Off Oscar Valentín
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Gabriel Suazo
69
Update Update
On Chidera Ejuke，Off Oso
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Fran Perez
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Unai Lopez Cabrera
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Alvaro Garcia
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Unai Lopez Cabrera
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Alvaro Garcia
63
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Miguel Sierra Left Footed Shot Blocked
60
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Peque Fernandez Left Footed Shot Saved
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Jon Guridi
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Jon Guridi
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Jon Guridi Left Footed Shot Goal
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Jon Guridi Left Footed Shot Goal
48
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jon Guridi Left Footed Shot Saved
46
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Oso Left Footed Shot Blocked
46
Update Update
On Peque Fernandez，Off Nico Guillen
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Oso Left Footed Shot Blocked
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Isaac Romero Bernal Head Shot Missed
45
Update Update
First Half Ends！0-1
36
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Isaac Romero Bernal Head Shot Missed
36
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Isaac Romero Bernal Head Shot Missed
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Isaac Romero Bernal Head Shot Missed
24
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Enrique Jesus Salas Valiente Left Footed Shot Missed
15
Corner Corner
Corner
7
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Randy Nteka Right Footed Shot Missed
4
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Randy Nteka Right Footed Shot Missed
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Alvaro Garcia Left Footed Shot Goal
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano. Structural assessment: Sevilla exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.