SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Europa-Park Stadion Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
SC FreiburgSCF
RB LeipzigRBL
KICKOFF : Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

SC Freiburg host RB Leipzig in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at Europa-Park Stadion. Domestically, SC Freiburg sit 7th in the table while RB Leipzig are 3th. Power ranking favours RB Leipzig by 4.9 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: RB Leipzig enjoy a 4.9-point power advantage over SC Freiburg, with scores of 87.26 to 82.37.
  • Form: Form data is unavailable for both SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig.
  • Squad: RB Leipzig sit higher in 3rd place compared to SC Freiburg's 7th in the Bundesliga.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not provided for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG statistics.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable for both teams.
  • Market: SC Freiburg 35.6% (Δ+0.5%) | Draw 24.4% (Δ+-0%) | RB Leipzig 40% (Δ-0.5%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
SC Freiburg J. Schuster
J. Schuster
VS
RB Leipzig O. Werner
O. Werner
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.87
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hamburger SV Rank: 76 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 89 L
Heidenheim Rank: 71 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 4 - 12
12
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SC Freiburg
35.56%
Draw
24.43%
Away RB Leipzig
40.01%

Movement

Changes since opening
SC Freiburg
+0.49%
Draw
-0.02%
RB Leipzig
-0.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
82.37
87.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
Power Score
82.37
87.26
League Position
7
3
Global Rank
47
24

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SC Freiburg — Opponent-weighted form score
RB Leipzig — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SC Freiburg RB Leipzig

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
N. Atubolu
1 N. Atubolu
L. Kübler
17 L. Kübler
M. Ginter
28 M. Ginter
B. Ogbus
43 B. Ogbus
P. Treu
29 P. Treu
M. Eggestein
8 M. Eggestein
J. Manzambi
44 J. Manzambi
J. Beste
19 J. Beste
L. Höler
9 L. Höler
V. Grifo
32 V. Grifo
I. Matanovic
31 I. Matanovic
M. Vandevoordt
26 M. Vandevoordt
D. Raum
22 D. Raum
C. Lukeba
23 C. Lukeba
W. Orban
4 W. Orban
R. Baku
17 R. Baku
C. Baumgartner
14 C. Baumgartner
X. Schlager
24 X. Schlager
N. Seiwald
13 N. Seiwald
A. Nordby Nusa
7 A. Nordby Nusa
R. Cardoso da Cruz
40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
Y. Diomande
49 Y. Diomande

General Information

Date & Time
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion
Capacity
34700
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Noah Atubolu
Noah Atubolu Goalkeeper
6.87
31
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic Centre Forward
6.89
8
Maximilian Eggestein
Maximilian Eggestein Defensive Midfield
6.91
9
Lucas Höler
Lucas Höler Attacking Midfield
6.7
17
Lukas Kübler
Lukas Kübler Right Back
6.83
43
Bruno Ogbus
Bruno Ogbus Left Back
6.6
44
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi Defensive Midfield
7.02
19
Niklas Beste
Niklas Beste Right Wing
6.81
28
Matthias Ginter
Matthias Ginter Right Back
6.94
29
Philipp Treu
Philipp Treu Left Back
6.64
32
Vincenzo Grifo
Vincenzo Grifo Left Wing
6.94

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Vandevoordt
Maarten Vandevoordt Goalkeeper
6.8
40
Rômulo
Rômulo Centre Forward
6.95
49
Yan Diomande
Yan Diomande Attacker
7.32
7
Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa Attacker
7.06
4
Willi Orbán
Willi Orbán Right Back
7.2
13
Nicolas Seiwald
Nicolas Seiwald Central Midfield
6.94
14
Christoph Baumgartner
Christoph Baumgartner Central Midfield
7.17
17
Ridle Baku
Ridle Baku Right Back
6.96
22
David Raum
David Raum Left Back
7.44
23
Castello Lukeba
Castello Lukeba Left Back
6.94
24
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager Central Midfield
6.85

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward RB Leipzig holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give RB Leipzig a 4.9-point edge. External projection is SC Freiburg 36.6%, draw 24.4%, and RB Leipzig 39.1%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.