Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad preview

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Sarpsborg Stadion Sat, 9 May - 12:00 PM
Eliteserien
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08
2 1
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
Full Time Sat, 9 May 12:00 PM
Round 8 Regular Season
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen - 41', 90+8'
Goal
|
Goal
Fredrik Holmé - 17'

CONTEXT

Sarpsborg 08 secured a hard-fought 2-1 win against Fredrikstad, overcoming the perception of their opponents as the stronger team. The match was evenly poised at 1-1 halftime, reflecting a competitive first half where both sides found the net once. Sarpsborg dominated possession with 60% to Fredrikstad's 40%, translating that control into the decisive second-half goal. Despite no red cards disrupting play and no notable second-half adjustments, the home side's persistence paid off in a result marked by significant structural deviation of 92.8%. This upset victory highlights Sarpsborg's efficiency staying in line with expectations, even as pre-match assessments heavily favored a draw. The absence of xG data leaves shot quality unquantified, but the final score underscores tactical execution under pressure. Fredrikstad's inability to capitalize on their favored status adds intrigue to this Eliteserien encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sarpsborg 08's 2-1 win exhibited a 92.8% structural deviation rated as significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unassessable without recorded metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Amland
S. Amland
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Grønevik
T. Grønevik
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
H. Holthe
H. Holthe
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Lundberg
M. Lundberg
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sarpsborg 08 E. Sel
E. Sel
VS
Fredrikstad A. Hagen
A. Hagen
1.22
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.78
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lillestrøm Rank: 56 L
KFUM Rank: 55 L
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 82 D
Rosenborg Rank: 62 L
Start Rank: 50 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brann Rank: 68 L
Viking Rank: 77 L
Kristiansund Rank: 54 L
Vålerenga Rank: 59 D
Aalesund Rank: 42 W
KFUM Rank: 57 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sarpsborg 08
7.19%
Draw
87.32%
Away Fredrikstad
5.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.33
59.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sarpsborg 08
Fredrikstad
Power Score
59.33
59.95
League Position
10
13
Global Rank
519
487

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sarpsborg 08 — Opponent-weighted form score
Fredrikstad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sarpsborg 08

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fredrikstad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredrikstad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.08
18.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.75
25.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sarpsborg 08 +0.63 Efficiency Index
vs
Fredrikstad -0.63 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sarpsborg 08
Fredrikstad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredrikstad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sarpsborg 08
Fredrikstad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sarpsborg 08
vs
Fredrikstad
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sarpsborg 08 0.20
Fredrikstad 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sarpsborg 08 Fredrikstad
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sarpsborg 08 0.03
Fredrikstad 0.03
Sarpsborg 08
Fredrikstad
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Sarpsborg 08 had peak pressure around 43'.
  • Fredrikstad started the game with stronger pressure.
Sarpsborg 08 Pressure Fredrikstad Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Sarpsborg 08 reached the top pressure at 43' (81.89).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 Home
6 matches
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
5
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:00:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Ndiaye
Senegal
1 M. Ndiaye
C. Niyukuri
Substitution
Norway
12 C. Niyukuri
B. Utvik
Norway
4 B. Utvik
M. Koch
Netherlands
2 M. Koch
A. Hiim
Norway
21 A. Hiim
A. Sher
Sweden
6 A. Sher
S. Christiansen
Norway
8 S. Christiansen
S. Sørli
Norway
10 S. Sørli
J. Berget
Substitution
Norway
14 J. Berget
A. Hansen
Substitution
Denmark
33 A. Hansen
D. Seland Karlsbakk
Substitution
Norway
11 D. Seland Karlsbakk
M. Børsheim
Norway
77 M. Børsheim
J. Vonheim Norbye
Norway
18 J. Vonheim Norbye
U. Fredriksen
Norway
12 U. Fredriksen
F. Holmé
Norway
4 F. Holmé
S. Rafn
Substitution
Norway
5 S. Rafn
R. Shein
Estonia
21 R. Shein
L. Owusu
Ghana
24 L. Owusu
S. Holm
Substitution
Sweden
6 S. Holm
D. Eid
Norway
16 D. Eid
S. Sørløkk
Norway
13 S. Sørløkk
O. Øhlenschlæger
Substitution
Denmark
20 O. Øhlenschlæger

General Information

Date & Time
May 09, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 8 · Regular Season
Stadium
Sarpsborg Stadion
Capacity
8022
Attendance
8022
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sivert Amland
Tom Harald Grønevik
Herman Holthe
Magnus Lundberg

Statistics

Possession
Sarpsborg 08
58%
Fredrikstad
42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 1
61 Dangerous attacks 30
60 Possession 40
11 Corners 3
19 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

8 Goal Attempts 3
83 Ball Safe 76
16 Throwins 17
10 Goal Kicks 10
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
1 Injuries 1
19 Dribble Attempts 8
10 Successful Dribbles 2
4 Substitutions 3

Attacking

97 Attacks 77

Possession

20 Successful Long Passes 27
355 Successful Passes 224
68 Long Passes 87
78 Successful Passes Percentage 71
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
5 Key Passes 3
454 Passes 315

Defensive

12 Tackles 17
5 Interceptions 3
65 Duels Won 43
1 Saves 1

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 10
9 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

15 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Sivert Amland

Starting XI ▼

1
Mamour Ndiaye
Mamour Ndiaye Goalkeeper
2
Menno Koch
Menno Koch Defender
4
Bjørn Inge Utvik
Bjørn Inge Utvik Defender
12
Claus Niyukuri
Claus Niyukuri Defender
5
Magnar Odegaard
Magnar Odegaard
Defender65'
21
Anders Hiim
Anders Hiim Defender
6
Aimar Sher
Aimar Sher Midfielder
8
Sander Christiansen
Sander Christiansen Midfielder
10
Sondre Sörli
Sondre Sörli Midfielder
14
Jo Inge Berget
Jo Inge Berget Midfielder
22
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Midfielder16'
2
33
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Midfielder
17
Noa Williams
Noa Williams
Midfielder86'
11
Daniel Karlsbakk
Daniel Karlsbakk Attacker
18
Bop Guèye
Bop Guèye
Midfielder86'
Referee : Sivert Amland

Starting XI ▼

77
Martin Børsheim
Martin Børsheim Goalkeeper
4
Fredrik Holmé
Fredrik Holmé Defender
12
Ulrik Fredriksen
Ulrik Fredriksen Defender
18
Jonathan Norbye
Jonathan Norbye Defender
5
Simen Rafn
Simen Rafn Midfielder
19
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
Defender79'
6
Samuel Leach Holm
Samuel Leach Holm Midfielder
23
Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Attacker66'
16
Daniel Eid
Daniel Eid Midfielder
21
Rocco Shein
Rocco Shein Midfielder
24
Leonard Owusu
Leonard Owusu Midfielder
13
Sondre Sørløkk
Sondre Sørløkk Attacker
20
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger Attacker
9
S. Laghzaoui
S. Laghzaoui
Midfielder79'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Goal awarded
90+12'
Event
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+8'
Event
Noa Williams → Andreas Hansen
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Bop Guèye → Daniel Karlsbakk
6th Substitution
86'
82'
Event
Fredrik Holmé
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
79'
Event
S. Laghzaoui → Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem → Simen Rafn
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Henrik Langaas Skogvold → Samuel Leach Holm
3rd Substitution
Event
Magnar Odegaard → Claus Niyukuri
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Aimar Sher
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
65'
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Rocco Shein
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Mamour Ndiaye
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
45+4'
45+4'
Event
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
41'
Event
Sondre Sörli
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
36'
30'
Event
Leonard Owusu
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Menno Koch
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
17'
Event
Fredrik Holmé
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen → Jo Inge Berget
1st Substitution
16'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sarpsborg 08 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.