São Paulo vs Athletico PR preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo
Serie A
São PauloSAO
1 2
Athletico PRAPR
Full Time
Round 19 Regular Season
Artur - 19'
Goal
|
Goal
Leozinho - 46', 51'

CONTEXT

In the encounter between São Paulo and Athletico PR the away side emerged victorious with a final score of 1-2. São Paulo took the lead by halftime with a score of 1-0. Throughout the game São Paulo dominated possession at 70 percent yet their expected goals stood at 1.2 while Athletico PR recorded 2.2. This xG differential of negative one highlighted the visitors efficiency in converting opportunities. Athletico PR demonstrated a significant deviation from anticipated outcomes. The match proceeded without any red cards allowing both teams to maintain full squads. The result proved consistent with the underlying metrics despite the initial advantage for the home team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Athletico PR recorded a significant structural deviation of 100 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The 1-2 score aligned with home xG of 1.2 and away xG of 2.2.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: São Paulo fell short of xG expectations while Athletico PR exceeded them.
  • Event impact: No major events disrupted the match beyond standard play.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred resulting in zero distortion to dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Gomes Stefano
A. Gomes Stefano
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
T. Neto Correa Farinha
T. Neto Correa Farinha
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Regazzone
L. Regazzone
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Gomes Rabelo
A. Gomes Rabelo
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
São Paulo D. Silvestre Júnior
D. Silvestre Júnior
VS
Athletico PR O. Hellmann
O. Hellmann
1.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Remo Rank: 58 L
Botafogo Rank: 68 D
Fluminense Rank: 68 L
Corinthians Rank: 67 L
Bahia Rank: 62 D
Mirassol Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirassol Rank: 65 W
Remo Rank: 58 W
Flamengo Rank: 76 D
Vasco da Gama Rank: 60 L
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
Vitória Rank: 62 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.03
55.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
São Paulo
Athletico PR
Power Score
63.03
55.93
League Position
9
3
Global Rank
443
424

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
São Paulo — Opponent-weighted form score
Athletico PR — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) São Paulo Athletico PR

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

São Paulo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Athletico PR

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

São Paulo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Athletico PR
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.57
42.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.00
31.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
São Paulo -0.86 Efficiency Index
vs
Athletico PR +0.86 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
São Paulo
Athletico PR
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

São Paulo
vs
Athletico PR
Created Set-piece attacking threat
São Paulo Athletico PR
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
26%
5%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.32 vs -0.12
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
São Paulo Athletico PR
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
5%
26%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.12 vs -0.32
São Paulo
Athletico PR
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
São Paulo
vs
Athletico PR
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
São Paulo Athletico PR
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
São Paulo 0.22
Athletico PR 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
São Paulo Athletico PR
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
São Paulo 0.06
Athletico PR 0.01
São Paulo
Athletico PR
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SAO had peak pressure around 61'.
  • SAO started the game with stronger pressure.
SAO Pressure APR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SAO reached the top pressure at 61' (70.98).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

São Paulo SAO Home
2 matches
Athletico PR APR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-24T00:01:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 19 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo
Capacity
66795
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alex Gomes Stefano
Thiago Henrique Neto Correa Farinha
Luiz Claudio Regazzone
Arthur Gomes Rabelo

Statistics

Possession
SAO
66%
APR
34%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 6
82 Dangerous attacks 32
70 Possession 30
7 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

70 Ball Safe 61
7 Goal Kicks 10
11 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 4
23 Throwins 17
0 Hit Woodwork 2
7 Successful Headers 6
0 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1
20 Dribble Attempts 15
11 Successful Dribbles 4
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27

Attacking

114 Attacks 56
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

51 Long Passes 39
630 Passes 263
570 Successful Passes 213
90 Successful Passes Percentage 81
11 Key Passes 8
39 Successful Long Passes 20
76 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51

Defensive

1 Saves 2
22 Tackles 14
7 Interceptions 9
54 Duels Won 32

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 11
7 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

7 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Alex Gomes Stefano

Starting XI ▼

23
Rafael
Rafael Goalkeeper
6.3
2
Rafael Tolói
Rafael Tolói Defender
6.77
54
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira
Defender23'
6.79
5
Robert Arboleda
Robert Arboleda Defender
7.55
18
Wendell
Wendell Defender
6.99
19
Lucas Ramon
Lucas Ramon Defender
6.52
27
Victor Sá
Victor Sá
Attacker75'
6.33
8
Marcos Antônio
Marcos Antônio Midfielder
8.08
16
Damián Bobadilla
Damián Bobadilla Midfielder
6.54
94
Danielzinho
Danielzinho
Midfielder74'
6.79
29
Pablo Maia
Pablo Maia Midfielder
6.97
11
Ferreirinha
Ferreirinha
Attacker64'
6.87
9
Jonathan Calleri
Jonathan Calleri (C) Attacker
6.65
17
André Silva
André Silva
Attacker64'
6.55
10
Luciano
Luciano Attacker
6.97
37
Artur
Artur Attacker
7.37
Referee : Alex Gomes Stefano

Starting XI ▼

23
Santos
Santos (C) Goalkeeper
6.64
4
Arthur Dias
Arthur Dias Defender
6.25
22
Carlos Terán
Carlos Terán
Defender46'
6.86
33
Juan Felipe Aguirre
Juan Felipe Aguirre Defender
7.23
37
Lucas Esquivel
Lucas Esquivel Defender
7.05
7
Stiven Mendoza
Stiven Mendoza Midfielder
6.85
12
Gilberto
Gilberto Midfielder
6.71
2
Gilberto Júnior Leite dos Santos
Gilberto Júnior Leite dos Santos
Defender83'
6.5
14
Luiz Gustavo
Luiz Gustavo Midfielder
6.92
16
Jádson
Jádson Midfielder
6.55
8
João Cruz
João Cruz Attacker
6.47
26
Claudio
Claudio
Defender46'
6.76
9
Kevin Viveros
Kevin Viveros Attacker
6.06
21
Leozinho
Leozinho Attacker
2
8.11
11
Isaac
Isaac
Attacker76'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
83'
Event
Gilberto Júnior Leite dos Santos → Gilberto
9th Substitution
76'
Event
Isaac  → Leozinho
8th Substitution
Event
Victor Sá → Lucas Ramon
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Danielzinho → Damián Bobadilla
6th Substitution
74'
69'
Event
Odair Hellmann
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ferreirinha → Pablo Maia
4th Substitution
64'
Event
André Silva → Jonathan Calleri 
5th Substitution
64'
51'
Event
Leozinho
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Leozinho
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Claudio → João Cruz
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Carlos Terán  → Arthur Dias
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira → Rafael Tolói
1st Substitution
23'
Event
Artur
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
19'
18'
Event
Arthur Dias
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Antonio Silva San takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Artur Victor Guimaraes takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Teran takes a header shot but misses.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Antonio Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Aldemir Dos Santos Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Update Update
Gilberto Junior Leite Dos Santos is on, and Gilberto Moraes Junior is off.
82
Attempt Attempt
Aldemir Dos Santos Ferreira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Attempt Attempt
Luiz Gustavo Dias takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Claudio takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
John Stiveen Mendoza takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
76
Substitution Substitution
Isaac Rodrigues de Lima is substituted for Leozinho.
75
Update Update
Joao Victor Sa Santos is on, and Lucas Ramon Batista Silva is off.
74
Update Update
Daniel de Oliveira Sertanejo is on, and Damian Bobadilla is off.
71
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Antonio Silva San takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Robert Abel Arboleda Escobar takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Andre Oliveira Silva comes on for Jonathan Calleri.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Maia takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Luciano da Rocha Neves takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Leozinho takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Leozinho scores with a left-footed shot.
46
Attempt Attempt
Leozinho takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Leozinho scores, making it 1-1.
46
Substitution Substitution
Claudio is substituted for Joao Cruz.
46
Update Update
Carlos Teran is on, and Arthur Dias is off.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Calleri takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Leozinho takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Luciano da Rocha Neves takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Maia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Maia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Update Update
Luis Osorio Messias de Oliveira comes on for Rafael Toloi.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Artur Victor Guimaraes scores with a left-footed shot.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
18
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Arthur Dias receives a yellow card.
12
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jonathan Calleri Head Shot Missed
9
Attempt Attempt
Damian Bobadilla takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Antonio Silva San takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Alex Gomes Stefano.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: São Paulo 1-2 Athletico PR. Structural assessment: Athletico PR exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.