Rostov vs Sochi preview

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka Fri, 17 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Rostov FCR
0 1
Sochi Sochi
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 25 Regular Season
|
Goal
Kirill Zaika - 89'

CONTEXT

In a surprising Russian Premier League encounter, FC Rostov hosted PFC Sochi but suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat despite being the stronger team on paper. Rostov controlled 51% possession and created chances, yet failed to score, with the match locked at 0-0 at halftime. Sochi, holding 49% possession, capitalized efficiently in the second half for the decisive goal, marking a significant structural deviation. No red cards disrupted play, and the visitors' clinical finishing turned the tide against the home side's dominance. This result highlights Sochi's resilience and Rostov's profligacy, flipping pre-match expectations in a tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sochi delivered a significant 100% deviation by overcoming stronger Rostov 1-0.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match evaluations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remains undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without recorded metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout ties influenced proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary events.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Safjan
D. Safjan
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.64
D. Bereznov
D. Bereznov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.64
D. Kashirin
D. Kashirin
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.64
E. Bulanov
E. Bulanov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.16
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.64
Rostov J. Alba Cabello
J. Alba Cabello
VS
Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.54
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Moskva Rank: D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
Krasnodar Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: L
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rostov
0%
Draw
0%
Away Sochi
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.1
13.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rostov
Sochi
Power Score
18.1
13.78
League Position
10
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rostov Sochi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rostov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.84
23.37
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.37
17.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rostov -0.64 Efficiency Index
vs
Sochi +0.64 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Sochi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rostov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rostov Sochi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rostov Sochi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Sochi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rostov
vs
Sochi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rostov Sochi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rostov 0.17
Sochi 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rostov Sochi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rostov 0.02
Sochi 0.00
Rostov
Sochi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCR had peak pressure around 45'.
  • FCR started the game with stronger pressure.
FCR Pressure Sochi Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCR reached the top pressure at 45' (70.21).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rostov FCR Home
11 matches
Sochi Sochi Away
Match Record
2
Wins
6
3
Draws
3
6
Losses
2
Goals
12
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
12
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
H. Hankič
Austria
13 H. Hankič
V. Melekhin
Russia
4 V. Melekhin
D. Chistyakov
Russia
78 D. Chistyakov
D. Semenchuk
Substitution
Russia
22 D. Semenchuk
R. Soares dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
7 R. Soares dos Santos
K. Shchetinin
Russia
10 K. Shchetinin
A. Mironov
Russia
8 A. Mironov
K. Kuchaev
Substitution
Russia
18 K. Kuchaev
I. Vakhaniya
Russia
40 I. Vakhaniya
E. Golenkov
Russia
69 E. Golenkov
T. Suleymanov
Substitution
Russia
99 T. Suleymanov
A. Degtev
Russia
35 A. Degtev
V. Litvinov
Russia
4 V. Litvinov
M. Alves Santos
Brazil
33 M. Alves Santos
A. Soldatenkov
Russia
3 A. Soldatenkov
A. Makarchuk
Russia
17 A. Makarchuk
A. Kovalenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Kovalenko
D. Vasilev
Substitution
Russia
20 D. Vasilev
K. Zaika
Russia
27 K. Zaika
M. Ignatov
Substitution
Russia
8 M. Ignatov
V. Ilyin
Substitution
Russia
98 V. Ilyin
R. Ezhov
Substitution
Russia
29 R. Ezhov

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 17, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 25 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka
Capacity
2500
Attendance
9727
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dmitri Safjan
Denis Bereznov
Danil Kashirin
Evgeni Bulanov

Statistics

Possession
FCR
51%
Sochi
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 2
42 Dangerous attacks 49
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 5
21 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
73 Ball Safe 83
4 Substitutions 5
6 Goal Attempts 3
3 Injuries 1
12 Dribble Attempts 9
22 Successful Headers 13
15 Throwins 30
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
2 Goal Kicks 5
7 Successful Dribbles 6

Attacking

91 Attacks 99

Possession

294 Successful Passes 260
389 Passes 388
76 Successful Passes Percentage 67
86 Long Passes 74
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
41 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

1 Saves 4
71 Duels Won 63
10 Interceptions 2
15 Tackles 16

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Evgeni Bulanov

Starting XI ▼

13
Hidajet Hankic
Hidajet Hankic Goalkeeper
6.82
4
Viktor Melekhin
Viktor Melekhin Defender
6.71
22
David Semenchuk
David Semenchuk Defender
6.73
3
Oumar Sako
Oumar Sako
Defender76'
6.67
78
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Dmitriy Chistyakov Defender
6.93
7
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Midfielder
6.87
62
Ivan Komarov
Ivan Komarov
Midfielder84'
6.65
8
Aleksey Mironov
Aleksey Mironov Midfielder
7.1
10
Kirill Shchetinin
Kirill Shchetinin Midfielder
6.96
18
Konstantin Kuchaev
Konstantin Kuchaev Midfielder
6.82
9
Mohammad Mohebi
Mohammad Mohebi
Midfielder64'
6.83
40
Ilya Vakhania
Ilya Vakhania Midfielder
6.74
69
Egor Golenkov
Egor Golenkov Attacker
6.85
99
Timur Suleymanov
Timur Suleymanov Attacker
6.77
87
Andrey Langovich
Andrey Langovich
Defender76'
6.55
Referee : Evgeni Bulanov

Starting XI ▼

35
Aleksandr Degtev
Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper
6.73
3
A. Soldatenkov
A. Soldatenkov Defender
6.7
4
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender
6.67
33
Marcelo Alves
Marcelo Alves Defender
6.51
17
Artem Makarchuk
Artem Makarchuk Midfielder
6.45
19
A. Kovalenko
A. Kovalenko Midfielder
6.49
82
Sergey Volkov
Sergey Volkov
Defender90+3'
6.42
20
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Dmitriy Vasiljev Midfielder
6.72
28
Ruslan Magal
Ruslan Magal
Defender71'
6.39
27
Kirill Zaika
Kirill Zaika Midfielder
6.46
8
Mikhail Ignatov
Mikhail Ignatov Attacker
6.72
14
Kirill Kravtsov
Kirill Kravtsov
Midfielder71'
6.49
29
Roman Ezhov
Roman Ezhov Attacker
6.48
45
François Kamano
François Kamano
Attacker71'
6.73
98
Vladimir Iljin
Vladimir Iljin Attacker
6.83
9
Zakhar Fedorov
Zakhar Fedorov
Attacker75'
6.52

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Sergey Volkov → A. Kovalenko
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Kirill Zaika
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Ivan Komarov → Ronaldo
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Oumar Sako → David Semenchuk
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Andrey Langovich → Timur Suleymanov
6th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Zakhar Fedorov → Vladimir Iljin
5th Substitution
71'
Event
François Kamano → Roman Ezhov
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Kirill Kravtsov → Mikhail Ignatov
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Ruslan Magal → Dmitriy Vasiljev
4th Substitution
Event
Mohammad Mohebi → Konstantin Kuchaev
1st Substitution
64'
63'
Event
Marcelo Alves
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Vladimir Iljin
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
21'
Event
Kirill Zaika
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
3'
Event
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Sochi's 1-0 victory over Rostov underscores their opportunistic edge in a balanced contest, where the home team held slight possession superiority but lacked finishing bite. This significant upset, achieved without red card drama or major tactical shifts, rewards Sochi's second-half precision against a favored opponent. Rostov will rue missed opportunities, while Sochi gains momentum from efficient execution. The result, market-aligned yet expectation-defying, sets up intriguing narratives for both sides moving forward.