Rostov vs Orenburg preview

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka Sat, 25 Apr - 11:30 AM
Premier League
Rostov FCR
0 1
Orenburg Orenburg
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 27 Regular Season
|
Goal
G. Guzina - 85'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rostov 0–1 Orenburg. The result saw Orenburg take the points. Orenburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 52%–48%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Orenburg produced a significant 100% deviation by winning against the stronger Rostov side.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned fully with market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for analysis.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Kukuyan
P. Kukuyan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.62
A. Stipidi
A. Stipidi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.62
A. Ermilov
A. Ermilov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.62
Y. Khromey
Y. Khromey
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.62
Rostov J. Alba Cabello
J. Alba Cabello
VS
Orenburg I. Akhmetzyanov
I. Akhmetzyanov
0.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.07
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: D
Sochi Rank: L
Spartak Moskva Rank: D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: D
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rostov
0%
Draw
0%
Away Orenburg
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.47
15.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rostov
Orenburg
Power Score
17.47
15.63
League Position
10
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score
Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rostov Orenburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rostov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.98
31.04
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.04
27.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rostov -0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Orenburg +0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Orenburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rostov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rostov Orenburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rostov Orenburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Orenburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rostov
vs
Orenburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rostov Orenburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rostov 0.24
Orenburg 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rostov Orenburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rostov 0.03
Orenburg 0.00
Rostov
Orenburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCR had peak pressure around 26'.
  • FCR started the game with stronger pressure.
FCR Pressure Orenburg Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCR reached the top pressure at 26' (80.53).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rostov FCR Home
13 matches
Orenburg Orenburg Away
Match Record
7
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
7
Goals
16
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
16
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:01:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
R. Yatimov
Tajikistan
1 R. Yatimov
V. Melekhin
Substitution
Russia
4 V. Melekhin
D. Chistyakov
Russia
78 D. Chistyakov
O. Sako
Ivory Coast
3 O. Sako
I. Vakhaniya
Russia
40 I. Vakhaniya
K. Shchetinin
Substitution
Russia
10 K. Shchetinin
A. Mironov
Russia
8 A. Mironov
K. Kuchaev
Substitution
Russia
18 K. Kuchaev
R. Soares dos Santos
Brazil
7 R. Soares dos Santos
E. Golenkov
Substitution
Russia
69 E. Golenkov
T. Suleymanov
Russia
99 T. Suleymanov
M. Rudakov
Russia
88 M. Rudakov
A. Cantero Fernandez
Substitution
Paraguay
32 A. Cantero Fernandez
D. Khotulev
Russia
4 D. Khotulev
J. Palacios Santos
Colombia
6 J. Palacios Santos
I. Ivashchenko
Russia
65 I. Ivashchenko
F. Moufi
Morocco
18 F. Moufi
F. Gürlük
Substitution
Türkiye
7 F. Gürlük
E. Bolotov
Russia
57 E. Bolotov
E. Santos Queiroz
Substitution
Brazil
37 E. Santos Queiroz
J. Thompson
Substitution
Chile
16 J. Thompson
Alexandre Jesus
Substitution
Brazil
19 Alexandre Jesus

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka
Capacity
2500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Pavel Kukuyan
Aleksey Stipidi
Aleksey Ermilov
Yaroslav Khromey

Statistics

Possession
FCR
50%
Orenburg
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 13
51 Dangerous attacks 38
52 Possession 48
7 Corners 3
17 Free kicks 16
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

21 Throwins 37
10 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
10 Dribble Attempts 11
46 Successful Headers 29
1 Successful Dribbles 5
6 Goal Kicks 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
7 Goal Attempts 4
68 Ball Safe 87
4 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 3

Attacking

86 Attacks 92

Possession

209 Successful Passes 197
348 Passes 329
26 Successful Long Passes 23
60 Successful Passes Percentage 60
82 Long Passes 86
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27

Defensive

18 Tackles 13
80 Duels Won 57
16 Interceptions 6
1 Saves 4

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 17
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

14 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Pavel Kukuyan

Starting XI ▼

1
Rustam Yatimov
Rustam Yatimov Goalkeeper
6.69
3
Oumar Sako
Oumar Sako Defender
6.7
4
Viktor Melekhin
Viktor Melekhin Defender
6.75
22
David Semenchuk
David Semenchuk
Defender46'
6.72
40
Ilya Vakhania
Ilya Vakhania Defender
6.75
78
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Dmitriy Chistyakov Defender
6.96
8
Aleksey Mironov
Aleksey Mironov Midfielder
7.11
10
Kirill Shchetinin
Kirill Shchetinin Midfielder
6.94
9
Mohammad Mohebi
Mohammad Mohebi
Midfielder88'
6.82
18
Konstantin Kuchaev
Konstantin Kuchaev Midfielder
6.83
58
Daniil Shantaliy
Daniil Shantaliy
Midfielder67'
6.48
7
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Attacker
6.85
69
Egor Golenkov
Egor Golenkov Attacker
6.86
19
Khoren Bayramyan
Khoren Bayramyan
Midfielder73'
6.44
99
Timur Suleymanov
Timur Suleymanov Attacker
6.78
Referee : Pavel Kukuyan

Starting XI ▼

88
Maksim Rudakov
Maksim Rudakov Goalkeeper
5.98
4
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev Defender
6.62
6
Jhon Alex Palacios
Jhon Alex Palacios Defender
6.78
18
Fahd Moufi
Fahd Moufi Defender
6.85
32
Alexis Cantero
Alexis Cantero Defender
6.56
3
Danila Vedernikov
Danila Vedernikov
Defender90+3'
6.64
65
Ivan Ivashchenko
Ivan Ivashchenko Defender
6.91
7
E. Gürlük
E. Gürlük Midfielder
6.99
27
Renat Golybin
Renat Golybin
Midfielder72'
6.64
16
J. Thompson
J. Thompson Midfielder
6.97
8
Damián Puebla
Damián Puebla
Attacker73'
6.81
37
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz Midfielder
6.83
33
Philipp Hilmer
Philipp Hilmer
Midfielder90+6'
6.66
57
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov Midfielder
6.6
19
Alexandre Jesus
Alexandre Jesus Attacker
6.8
30
G. Guzina
G. Guzina
Attacker72'
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Danila Vedernikov
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Philipp Hilmer → Du Queiroz
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Danila Vedernikov → Alexis Cantero
8th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Alexis Cantero
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Maksim Rudakov
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Mohammad Mohebi → Kirill Shchetinin
7th Substitution
88'
85'
Event
G. Guzina
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Khoren Bayramyan → Egor Golenkov
5th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Damián Puebla → J. Thompson
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Renat Golybin → E. Gürlük
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
G. Guzina → Alexandre Jesus
4th Substitution
Event
Daniil Shantaliy → Konstantin Kuchaev
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
David Semenchuk → Viktor Melekhin
1st Substitution
46'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Orenburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.