Rīgas FS vs Vestri preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
LNK Sporta Parks
Europa Conference League
Rīgas FSRFS
4 1
VestriVES
Full Time
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Stefan Panic - 18'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rīgas FS 4–1 Vestri. The result saw Rīgas FS take the points. Rīgas FS showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 57%–43%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Rīgas FS 4-1 Vestri. Rīgas FS showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Jones
A. Jones
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Beckett
D. Beckett
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Roberts
M. Roberts
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Markham-Jones
B. Markham-Jones
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Rīgas FS V. Morozs
V. Morozs
VS
Vestri D. Osafo-Badu
D. Osafo-Badu
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Glentoran Rank: 52 W
Glentoran Rank: 53 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rīgas FS
97.13%
Draw
1.9%
Away Vestri
0.96%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rīgas FS
Vestri
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rīgas FS — Opponent-weighted form score
Vestri — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rīgas FS Vestri

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rīgas FS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vestri

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rīgas FS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vestri
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.86
15.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.58
48.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rīgas FS +2.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Vestri -2.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rīgas FS
Vestri
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rīgas FS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vestri
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rīgas FS Vestri
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rīgas FS Vestri
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rīgas FS
Vestri
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rīgas FS
vs
Vestri
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rīgas FS Vestri
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rīgas FS 0.24
Vestri 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rīgas FS Vestri
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rīgas FS 0.03
Vestri 0.04
Rīgas FS
Vestri
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RFS had peak pressure around 39'.
  • RFS started the game with stronger pressure.
RFS Pressure VES Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RFS reached the top pressure at 39' (78.35).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
LNK Sporta Parks
Capacity
27000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aaron Wyn Jones
Daniel Beckett
Martin Roberts
Bryn Markham-Jones

Statistics

Possession
RFS
61%
VES
39%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
15 Shots 3
97 Dangerous attacks 34
57 Possession 43
11 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

89 Ball Safe 94
16 Goal Attempts 3
3 Substitutions 5
25 Throwins 16
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

138 Attacks 95

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
13 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Aaron Wyn Jones

Starting XI ▼

16
Jevgenijs Nerugals
Jevgenijs Nerugals Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Roberts Veips
Roberts Veips Defender
6.26
6
Aleksandar Filipovic
Aleksandar Filipovic Defender
6.26
43
Ziga Lipuscek
Ziga Lipuscek (C) Defender
6.26
8
Lasha Odisharia
Lasha Odisharia Midfielder
6.5
77
Gauthier Mankenda
Gauthier Mankenda
Midfielder61'
6.37
10
Janis Ikaunieks
Janis Ikaunieks Midfielder
7.22
18
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs Midfielder
6.48
26
Stefan Panic
Stefan Panic Midfielder
6.57
49
Martins Kigurs
Martins Kigurs Midfielder
6.37
14
Mamadou Sylla
Mamadou Sylla
Midfielder75'
6.5
81
Strahinja Rakic
Strahinja Rakic Midfielder
6.48
15
Rostand Ndjiki
Rostand Ndjiki Attacker
6.86
22
Darko Lemajic
Darko Lemajic
Attacker61'
6.82
Referee : Aaron Wyn Jones

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Darri Steinarsson
Marvin Darri Steinarsson Goalkeeper
5.38
3
Edson
Edson Defender
5.7
12
Cafú Phete
Cafú Phete Defender
5.7
18
M. Hagbarðsson
M. Hagbarðsson Defender
5.88
10
Thórdur Gunnar Hafthórsson
Thórdur Gunnar Hafthórsson
Midfielder57'
6.37
22
Elmar Atli Gardarsson
Elmar Atli Gardarsson (C) Defender
5.69
13
Albert Ingi Jóhannsson
Albert Ingi Jóhannsson
Midfielder75'
6.5
45
Gudmundur Páll Einarsson
Gudmundur Páll Einarsson Defender
5.88
15
Gudmundur Arnar Svavarsson
Gudmundur Arnar Svavarsson
Defender57'
6.26
77
Sergine Fall
Sergine Fall Defender
5.88
23
Breki Thór Hermannsson
Breki Thór Hermannsson
Midfielder57'
6.37
7
Jacob Stensson
Jacob Stensson Midfielder
6.09
14
Birkir Eydal
Birkir Eydal
Defender75'
6.5
17
Gunnar Jónas Hauksson
Gunnar Jónas Hauksson Midfielder
6.09
19
Emmanuel Duah
Emmanuel Duah Midfielder
6.09
27
Chriss-Albin Mörfelt
Chriss-Albin Mörfelt Midfielder
6.28

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mamadou Sylla → Martins Kigurs
8th Substitution
75'
75'
Event
Birkir Eydal → Jacob Stensson
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Albert Ingi Jóhannsson → Elmar Atli Gardarsson 
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Elmar Atli Gardarsson 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Darko Lemajic
Field Goal / 5th Goal
66'
63'
Event
Chriss-Albin Mörfelt
Field Goal / 4th Goal
Event
Darko Lemajic → Rostand Ndjiki
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Gauthier Mankenda → Lasha Odisharia
5th Substitution
61'
57'
Event
Thórdur Gunnar Hafthórsson → M. Hagbarðsson
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Breki Thór Hermannsson → Sergine Fall
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Gudmundur Arnar Svavarsson → Gudmundur Páll Einarsson
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Rostand Ndjiki
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
43'
Event
Janis Ikaunieks
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
23'
Event
Stefan Panic
Field Goal / 1st Goal
18'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Update Update
Birkir Eydal is on, and Jacob Stensson is off.
75
Substitution Substitution
Albert Johannsson is substituted off for Elmar Atli Gardarsson.
75
Substitution Substitution
Mamadou Sylla is substituted off for Martins Kigurs.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 4-1.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-1.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Update Update
Darko Lemajic is on, and Rostand Ndjiki is off.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Update Update
On Gudmundur Arnar Svavarsson, off Gudmundur Pall Einarsson.
57
Update Update
Breki Hermannsson comes on for Sergine Fall.
57
Update Update
On Gudmundur Arnar Svavarsson, off Gudmundur Pall Einarsson.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-0.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Aaron Wyn Jones.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Rīgas FS 4-1 Vestri. Structural assessment: Rīgas FS exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.