Rīgas FS vs Jablonec preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
LNK Sporta Parks
Europa Conference League
Rīgas FSRFS
1 2
JablonecJAB
Full Time
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 4
Goal
|
Goal
Sebastian Nebyla - 22' (P)
Aleksandar Filipovic 83' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rīgas FS 1–2 Jablonec. The result saw Jablonec take the points. Jablonec showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 58%–42%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The fixture formed the second leg of a knockout tie with Rīgas FS entering at a 1-4 aggregate deficit.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the recorded metrics across both sides.
  • xG alignment: No xG values were available so alignment with the 1-2 outcome could not be measured.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed aligned with pre-match market indicators at a 4.8 percent deviation.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated because both home and away xG fields returned null.
  • Event impact: The red card to the home side produced the listed second half adjustments in the data.
  • Red card distortion: One red card to Rīgas FS introduced structural distortion to the match proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Frid
I. Frid
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
T. Koltunoff
T. Koltunoff
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Barbiro
O. Barbiro
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Na'al
O. Na'al
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Rīgas FS V. Morozs
V. Morozs
VS
Jablonec L. Kozel
L. Kozel
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jablonec Rank: 69 L
Vestri Rank: D
Vestri Rank: W
Glentoran Rank: 54 W
Glentoran Rank: 54 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rīgas FS Rank: W
Varaždin Rank: 70 W
Varaždin Rank: 69 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rīgas FS
0.64%
Draw
4.18%
Away Jablonec
95.18%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rīgas FS
-0.53%
Draw
-3.14%
Jablonec
+3.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.67
36.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rīgas FS
Jablonec
Power Score
36.67
36.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rīgas FS — Opponent-weighted form score
Jablonec — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rīgas FS Jablonec

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rīgas FS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Jablonec

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rīgas FS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jablonec
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
7.76
5.24
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
5.24
7.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rīgas FS +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Jablonec -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rīgas FS
Jablonec
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rīgas FS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jablonec
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rīgas FS Jablonec
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rīgas FS Jablonec
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rīgas FS
Jablonec
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rīgas FS
vs
Jablonec
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rīgas FS Jablonec
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rīgas FS 0.00
Jablonec 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rīgas FS Jablonec
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rīgas FS 0.05
Jablonec 0.01
Rīgas FS
Jablonec
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • JAB had peak pressure around 7'.
  • JAB started the game with stronger pressure.
RFS Pressure JAB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: JAB reached the top pressure at 7' (63.52).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rīgas FS RFS Home
1 matches
Jablonec JAB Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-14T00:00:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 4
Stadium
LNK Sporta Parks
Capacity
27000
Attendance
1674
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Igal Frid
Tuval Rahamim Koltunoff
Omer Barbiro
Odeh Na'al

Statistics

Possession
RFS
58%
JAB
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
8 Shots 4
90 Dangerous attacks 44
58 Possession 42
4 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 72
0 Penalties 1
2 Goal Kicks 6
14 Goal Attempts 5
3 Substitutions 5
31 Throwins 26

Attacking

118 Attacks 76

Defensive

0 Saves 6

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
15 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Igal Frid

Starting XI ▼

1
Rihards Matrevics
Rihards Matrevics Goalkeeper
5.88
6
Aleksandar Filipovic
Aleksandar Filipovic Defender
5.72
23
Herdi Prenga
Herdi Prenga (C) Defender
6.05
43
Ziga Lipuscek
Ziga Lipuscek Defender
6.24
8
Lasha Odisharia
Lasha Odisharia Midfielder
6.27
77
Gauthier Mankenda
Gauthier Mankenda
Midfielder84'
6.5
10
Janis Ikaunieks
Janis Ikaunieks Midfielder
6.27
18
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs Midfielder
6.38
19
Alfa Baldé
Alfa Baldé Midfielder
6.27
14
Mamadou Sylla
Mamadou Sylla
Midfielder71'
6.5
26
Stefan Panic
Stefan Panic Midfielder
6.23
66
Modou Saidy
Modou Saidy Midfielder
6.23
22
Darko Lemajic
Darko Lemajic
Attacker84'
6.5
15
Rostand Ndjiki
Rostand Ndjiki Attacker
6.43
Referee : Igal Frid

Starting XI ▼

1
Jan Hanus
Jan Hanus Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Nemanja Tekijaski
Nemanja Tekijaski (C) Defender
6.26
15
Dusan Pavlovic
Dusan Pavlovic Defender
6.26
18
Martin Cedidla
Martin Cedidla Defender
6.26
20
Jiri Slama
Jiri Slama Defender
6.26
7
Vakhtang Chanturishvili
Vakhtang Chanturishvili Midfielder
6.37
14
Daniel Soucek
Daniel Soucek
Defender85'
6.5
8
Filip Zorvan
Filip Zorvan Midfielder
6.37
9
Antonin Rusek
Antonin Rusek
Attacker61'
6.5
13
Richard Sedlacek
Richard Sedlacek Midfielder
6.52
21
Matej Polidar
Matej Polidar Midfielder
6.48
10
Jan Suchan
Jan Suchan
Midfielder61'
6.5
25
Sebastian Nebyla
Sebastian Nebyla Midfielder
6.41
27
Filip Vecheta
Filip Vecheta
Attacker85'
6.46
44
Lamin Jawo
Lamin Jawo Attacker
6.46
6
Nelson Okeke
Nelson Okeke
Midfielder78'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Filip Vecheta
5th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Daniel Soucek → Vakhtang Chanturishvili
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Filip Vecheta → Sebastian Nebyla
8th Substitution
Event
Darko Lemajic → Modou Saidy
5th Substitution
84'
Event
Gauthier Mankenda → Lasha Odisharia
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Aleksandar Filipovic
Roughing / 1st Yellow/red Card
83'
Event
Aleksandar Filipovic
Roughing / 4th Yellowcard
79'
78'
Event
Nelson Okeke → Lamin Jawo
4th Substitution
Event
Mamadou Sylla → Alfa Baldé
3rd Substitution
71'
69'
Event
Richard Sedlacek
Roughing / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Antonin Rusek → Filip Zorvan
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Jan Suchan → Matej Polidar
2nd Substitution
Event
Modou Saidy
Roughing / 2nd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Stefan Panic
Roughing / 1st Yellowcard
49'
1ST-HALF
Event
Ziga Lipuscek 
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
38'
22'
Event
Sebastian Nebyla
Penalty / 1st Penalty
4'
Event
Richard Sedlacek
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filip Vecheta receives a yellow card.
85
Update Update
Filip Vecheta comes on for Sebastian Nebyla.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Daniel Soucek comes on for Vakhtang Chanturishvili.
84
Update Update
Darko Lemajic comes on for Modou Saidy.
84
Substitution Substitution
Gauthier Mankenda is substituted off for Lasha Odisharia.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Aleksandar Filipovic.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Aleksandar Filipovic.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Nelson Okeke comes on for Lamin Jawo.
71
Update Update
Mamadou Sylla is on, and Alfa Balde is off.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Richard Sedlacek.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Update Update
On for Jan Suchan, off goes Matej Polidar.
61
Update Update
Antonin Rusek is on, and Filip Zorvan is off.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Modou Saidy receives a yellow card.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Stefan Panic.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Sebastian Nebyla scores, making it 0-2.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Richard Sedlacek scores to make it 0-1, assisted by Matej Polidar.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Yigal Frid.

CONCLUSION

The 1-2 result confirmed Jablonec progression despite lower possession and the absence of xG data limited deeper statistical comparison. Rīgas FS created the majority of territorial control yet the red card altered the balance and contributed to the outcome matching the halftime scoreline. Market alignment held with only minimal deviation recorded while efficiency stayed consistent with prior indicators. The knockout format and aggregate deficit entering the leg shaped the context for both teams tactical approach. Second half adjustments centered on the red card event without further quantitative distortion metrics available. Overall the data set presents a factual account of possession split red card occurrence and result alignment without reliance on unavailable xG measures.