Riga vs Vardar preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Sporta komplekss Ķeizarmežs Tue, 28 Jul - 5:00 PM
Europa Conference League
RigaRFC
5 2
VardarVAR
Full Time: After Extra Time Tue, 28 Jul 5:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 8 - 4
Raki Aouani - 92'
Iago Siqueira - 105'
Caio - 117'
Goal
|
Goal
|
Red Card Filip Najdovski 19'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Riga 5–2 Vardar. The result saw Riga take the points. Riga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 72%–28%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Riga 5-2 Vardar. Riga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was available for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with available market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be determined due to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: The red card had a notable impact on the second half.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion affected Vardar's defensive structure after halftime.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Kikacheishvili
G. Kikacheishvili
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Akhvlediani
D. Akhvlediani
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Gabisonia
D. Gabisonia
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Bregadze
B. Bregadze
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Riga A. Guľa
A. Guľa
VS
Vardar C. Fabbiani
C. Fabbiani
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vardar Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Riga Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Riga
65.66%
Draw
19.95%
Away Vardar
14.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
Riga
+34.97%
Draw
-45.82%
Vardar
+10.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.67
23.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Riga
Vardar
Power Score
36.67
23.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Riga — Opponent-weighted form score
Vardar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Riga Vardar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Riga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vardar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Riga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vardar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
83.06
39.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.82
83.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Riga +3.77 Efficiency Index
vs
Vardar -3.77 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Riga
Vardar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Riga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vardar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Riga Vardar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Riga Vardar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Riga
Vardar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Riga
vs
Vardar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Riga Vardar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Riga 0.23
Vardar 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Riga Vardar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Riga 0.05
Vardar 0.02
Riga
Vardar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RFC had peak pressure around 128'.
  • RFC started the game with stronger pressure.
RFC Pressure VAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RFC reached the top pressure at 128' (81.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Riga RFC Home
1 matches
Vardar VAR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
3
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-29T00:00:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 28, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 8 - 4
Stadium
Sporta komplekss Ķeizarmežs
Capacity
8207
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Goga Kikacheishvili
Davit Akhvlediani
Davit Gabisonia
Bakar Bregadze

Statistics

Possession
RFC
66%
VAR
34%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 2
31 Shots 5
216 Dangerous attacks 43
72 Possession 28
9 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

115 Ball Safe 156
39 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
35 Throwins 18

Attacking

218 Attacks 133

Discipline

5 Offsides 0
13 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Goga Kikacheishvili

Starting XI ▼

91
Frenks Orols
Frenks Orols Goalkeeper
5.88
13
Raivis Jurkovskis
Raivis Jurkovskis (C) Defender
6.05
23
Maksims Tonisevs
Maksims Tonisevs
Defender91'
6.61
17
Andrés Salazar
Andrés Salazar Defender
6.05
25
Abdulrahman Taiwo
Abdulrahman Taiwo
Attacker75'
6.86
21
Baba Musah
Baba Musah Defender
6.04
33
Paulo Eduardo
Paulo Eduardo Defender
6.05
4
Orlando Galo
Orlando Galo Midfielder
6.37
10
Reginaldo Ramires
Reginaldo Ramires
Attacker65'
7.19
7
Raki Aouani
Raki Aouani Midfielder
6.79
5
Karl Gameni Wassom
Karl Gameni Wassom
Defender112'
6.5
8
Iago Siqueira
Iago Siqueira Midfielder
6.47
22
Meïssa Diop
Meïssa Diop Midfielder
6.37
99
Caio
Caio
Attacker46'
6.82
40
Ahmed Ankrah
Ahmed Ankrah Midfielder
6.27
19
Mohamed Badamosi
Mohamed Badamosi Attacker
6.43
34
Antonijs Cernomordijs
Antonijs Cernomordijs
Defender99'
6.5
Referee : Goga Kikacheishvili

Starting XI ▼

95
Davor Taleski
Davor Taleski Goalkeeper
5.11
3
Mihail Manevski
Mihail Manevski Defender
6.26
27
Filip Cvetkovski
Filip Cvetkovski
Defender91'
5.7
4
Mislav Matic
Mislav Matic Defender
5.51
5
Filip Najdovski
Filip Najdovski Defender
4.32
21
Georgije Jankulov
Georgije Jankulov Defender
5.51
6
David Babunski
David Babunski Midfielder
6.47
22
Dimitar Todorovski
Dimitar Todorovski
Midfielder99'
6.18
32
Diego Castañeda
Diego Castañeda Midfielder
6.5
23
Filip Duranski
Filip Duranski
Midfielder84'
5.95
34
Ian Puleio
Ian Puleio Midfielder
6.38
49
Dimitar Danev
Dimitar Danev
Attacker99'
6.38
71
Miguel Pires
Miguel Pires Midfielder
6.5
14
Darko Velkovski
Darko Velkovski
Defender22'
5.51
7
Gerson Rodrigues
Gerson Rodrigues Attacker
6.3
9
Azer Omeragić
Azer Omeragić (C) Attacker
6.86
10
Goran Zakaric
Goran Zakaric
Attacker69'
6.3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Caio
Field Goal / 7th Goal
117'
Event
Karl Gameni Wassom → Raki Aouani
12th Substitution
112'
Event
Reginaldo Ramires
Field Goal / 6th Goal
109'
105+6'
Event
Filip Duranski
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Iago Siqueira
Field Goal / 5th Goal
105'
Event
Antonijs Cernomordijs  → Mohamed Badamosi
9th Substitution
99'
99'
Event
Dimitar Danev → Ian Puleio
10th Substitution
99'
Event
Dimitar Todorovski → David Babunski
11th Substitution
Event
Raki Aouani
Field Goal / 4th Goal
92'
Event
Raki Aouani
2nd Yellowcard
92'
Event
Maksims Tonisevs → Raivis Jurkovskis
8th Substitution
91'
91'
Event
Filip Cvetkovski → Mihail Manevski
7th Substitution
Event
Abdulrahman Taiwo
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
87'
84'
Event
Filip Duranski → Diego Castañeda
6th Substitution
Event
Abdulrahman Taiwo → Andrés Salazar
5th Substitution
75'
70'
Event
Cristian Fabbiani
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Goran Zakaric → Azer Omeragić 
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Azer Omeragić 
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Reginaldo Ramires → Orlando Galo
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Baba Musah
Dangerous play / 1st Yellowcard
56'
Event
Caio → Meïssa Diop
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
22'
Event
Darko Velkovski → Miguel Pires
1st Substitution
19'
Event
Filip Najdovski
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
17'
Event
David Babunski
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

117
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Caio Ferreira 5-2
115
Corner Corner
Corner
112
Update Update
On Karl Gameni Wassom，Off Raki Aouani
111
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Darko Velkovski
109
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 4-2
108
Corner Corner
Corner
108
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card
105
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 3-2
105
Corner Corner
Corner
99
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 3-2
99
Corner Corner
Corner
98
Update Update
On Antonijs Cernomordijs，Off Mohamed Badamosi
93
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card
92
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Raki Aouani 2-2
91
Update Update
On Maksims Tonisevs，Off Raivis Jurkovskis
91
Update Update
On Filip Cvetkovski，Off Mihail Manevski
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 1-2
86
Corner Corner
Corner
84
Corner Corner
Corner
76
Corner Corner
Corner
75
Update Update
On Abdulrahman Taiwo，Off Andres Salazar
69
Update Update
On Goran Zakaric，Off Azer Omeragikj
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Azer Omeragikj 0-2
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 0-2
63
Corner Corner
Corner
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card
51
Corner Corner
Corner
46
Update Update
On Caio Ferreira，Off Meissa Diop
33
Corner Corner
Corner
22
Update Update
On Darko Velkovski，Off Miguel Pires
20
Red Card Red Card Important
Red Card - Filip Najdovski
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 0-1
7
Corner Corner
Corner
7
Corner Corner
Corner
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Wojciech Myc

CONCLUSION

Riga completed a strong performance to win 5-2 and advance in the tie. Their control of possession and clinical finishing created clear advantages throughout the contest. The red card issued to Vardar in the second half further tilted the balance allowing Riga to extend their lead comfortably. With the aggregate score secured the home side demonstrated why they entered as the stronger team. Vardar showed limited threat after the dismissal and could not recover from the early deficit. Riga's approach in both halves ensured they managed the game effectively to reach the final result. This victory highlighted their overall superiority on the night.