Riga vs Ararat-Armenia preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Sporta komplekss Ķeizarmežs
Champions League
RigaRFC
3 2
Ararat-ArmeniaARAR2
Full Time
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 4
Ahmed Ankrah - 23'
Reginaldo Ramires - 90+4' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Sandro Lima - 63'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Riga 3–2 Ararat-Armenia. The result saw Riga take the points. Riga showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation from expected outcome measured a minimal 3.9 percent for Riga.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections throughout the contest.
  • xG alignment: No expected goals data was recorded during the match.
  • Market alignment: Final result proved consistent with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals figures were unavailable in the provided data set.
  • Event impact: Riga overturned the first-leg deficit with a 3-2 second-leg victory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown so match dynamics stayed undistorted.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Csonka
B. Csonka
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
V. Toth
V. Toth
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Szert
B. Szert
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Berke
B. Berke
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Riga A. Guľa
A. Guľa
VS
Ararat-Armenia M. da Silva Cruz
M. da Silva Cruz
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ararat-Armenia Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Riga Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Riga
96.05%
Draw
3.31%
Away Ararat-Armenia
0.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Riga — Opponent-weighted form score
Ararat-Armenia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Riga Ararat-Armenia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Riga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ararat-Armenia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Riga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ararat-Armenia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.55
20.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.80
49.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Riga +1.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Ararat-Armenia -1.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Riga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ararat-Armenia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Riga Ararat-Armenia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Riga Ararat-Armenia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Riga
vs
Ararat-Armenia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Riga Ararat-Armenia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Riga 0.32
Ararat-Armenia 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Riga Ararat-Armenia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Riga 0.05
Ararat-Armenia 0.04
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RFC had peak pressure around 90'.
  • RFC started the game with stronger pressure.
RFC Pressure ARAR2 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RFC reached the top pressure at 90' (83.02).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Riga RFC Home
1 matches
Ararat-Armenia ARAR2 Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-15T00:01:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 4
Stadium
Sporta komplekss Ķeizarmežs
Capacity
8087
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bence Csonka
Vencel Toth
Balázs Szert
Balazs Berke

Statistics

Possession
RFC
55%
ARAR2
45%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
16 Shots 4
75 Dangerous attacks 43
56 Possession 44
8 Corners 2
19 Free kicks 22
5 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5
12 Throwins 22
1 Assists 1

Attacking

92 Attacks 110

Defensive

1 Saves 5

Discipline

5 Offsides 0
17 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Bence Csonka

Starting XI ▼

1
Krisjanis Zviedris
Krisjanis Zviedris Goalkeeper
5.88
13
Raivis Jurkovskis
Raivis Jurkovskis Defender
6.05
17
Andrés Salazar
Andrés Salazar Defender
6.04
21
Baba Musah
Baba Musah Defender
6.05
33
Paulo Eduardo
Paulo Eduardo Defender
6.05
34
Antonijs Cernomordijs
Antonijs Cernomordijs
Defender86'
4
Orlando Galo
Orlando Galo Midfielder
6.23
99
Caio
Caio
Attacker69'
6.5
7
Raki Aouani
Raki Aouani Midfielder
6.27
5
Karl Gameni Wassom
Karl Gameni Wassom
Defender80'
6.5
8
Iago Siqueira
Iago Siqueira Midfielder
6.47
25
Abdulrahman Taiwo
Abdulrahman Taiwo
Attacker80'
6.5
18
Salah Oulad
Salah Oulad Midfielder
6.23
10
Reginaldo Ramires
Reginaldo Ramires
Attacker69'
6.67
40
Ahmed Ankrah
Ahmed Ankrah Midfielder
6.42
19
Mohamed Badamosi
Mohamed Badamosi Attacker
6.51
Referee : Bence Csonka

Starting XI ▼

98
Victor Silva
Victor Silva Goalkeeper
5.68
2
Hugo Oliveira
Hugo Oliveira Defender
5.86
3
Junior Julio
Junior Julio Defender
5.88
13
Kamo Hovhannisyan
Kamo Hovhannisyan Defender
5.88
16
Edgar Grigoryan
Edgar Grigoryan Defender
6.04
10
Armen Ambartsumyan
Armen Ambartsumyan
Midfielder46'
6.37
43
Bruno Wilson
Bruno Wilson Defender
5.88
7
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Zhirayr Shaghoyan Midfielder
6.47
5
Luis Felipe
Luis Felipe
Defender71'
6.26
19
Karen Muradyan
Karen Muradyan Midfielder
6.18
20
Alwyn Tera
Alwyn Tera Midfielder
6.27
11
Zidane Banjaqui
Zidane Banjaqui
Midfielder61'
6.44
77
Artur Serobyan
Artur Serobyan Midfielder
6.27
95
Carlos França
Carlos França
Midfielder61'
6.33
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
6.43
25
Alioune Ndour
Alioune Ndour
Attacker87'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Reginaldo Ramires
Penalty / 1st Penalty
90+4'
87'
Event
Alioune Ndour → Sandro Lima
10th Substitution
Event
Antonijs Cernomordijs  → Paulo Eduardo
9th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Carlos França
Roughing / 9th Yellowcard
85'
Event
10th Yellowcard
Event
Abdulrahman Taiwo → Iago Siqueira
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Karl Gameni Wassom → Raki Aouani
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Reginaldo Ramires
Tripping / 8th Yellowcard
72'
71'
Event
Luis Felipe → Zhirayr Shaghoyan
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Hugo Oliveira
Roughing / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Caio → Orlando Galo
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Reginaldo Ramires → Salah Oulad
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Ahmed Ankrah
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 4th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Andrés Salazar
Tripping / 6th Yellowcard
66'
66'
Event
Zidane Banjaqui
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 5th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Sandro Lima
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
61'
Event
Zidane Banjaqui → Alwyn Tera
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Carlos França → Artur Serobyan
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Armen Ambartsumyan  → Edgar Grigoryan
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Orlando Galo
Holding / 3rd Yellowcard
44'
Event
Salah Oulad
Diving / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
34'
Event
Edgar Grigoryan
Elbowing / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ahmed Ankrah
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
Event
Iago Siqueira
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Reginaldo Oliveira scores, making it 3-2.
87
Update Update
Alioune Ndour comes on for Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlos Franca receives a yellow card.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Update Update
On comes Karl Gameni Wassom, off goes Raki Aouani.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Abdulrahman Taiwo comes on for Iago Siqueira Augusto.
72
Update Update
Luis Felipe Hungria Martins is on, and Zhirayr Shaghoyan is off.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Reginaldo Oliveira.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hugo Oliveira receives a yellow card.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Reginaldo Oliveira.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hugo Oliveira receives a yellow card.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Zidane Banjaqui.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Baba Musah receives a yellow card.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andres Salazar receives a yellow card.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
61
Update Update
Carlos Franca is on, and Artur Serobyan is off.
61
Update Update
Zidane Banjaqui is on, and Alwyn Tera is off.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
46
Update Update
Armen Ambartsumyan is on, and Edgar Grigoryan is off.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Moises Galo Calderon of Orlando.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Salah MHand.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Edgar Grigoryan.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ahmed Ankrah scores, making it 2-0.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Iago Siqueira Augusto scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Orlando Moises Galo Calderon.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Bence Csonka.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Riga 3-2 Ararat-Armenia. Structural assessment: Riga exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.