Ried vs Grazer AK preview

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
josko ARENA Tue, 21 Apr - 6:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Ried Ried
2 1
Grazer AK GAK
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 6 Relegation Round
Ante Bajic - 28'
Kingstone Mutandwa - 35'
Goal
|
Goal
Mark Grosse - 67'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Ried 2–1 Grazer AK. The result saw Ried take the points. Ried showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ried's 2-1 win featured a significant 51.3% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Pfister
D. Pfister
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.85
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
M. Diesenberger
M. Diesenberger
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.85
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
M. Koller
M. Koller
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.85
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
S. Bosnjak
S. Bosnjak
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.85
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
Ried M. Senft
M. Senft
VS
Grazer AK F. Feldhofer
F. Feldhofer
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grazer AK Rank: D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: W
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: L
WSG Tirol Rank: W
Austria Wien Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ried Rank: D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: L
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: W
WSG Tirol Rank: W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: W
WSG Tirol Rank: L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 5 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ried
48.66%
Draw
28.82%
Away Grazer AK
22.52%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ried
-47.45%
Draw
+25.12%
Grazer AK
+22.33%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.27
22.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ried
Grazer AK
Power Score
24.27
22.38
League Position
9
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ried — Opponent-weighted form score
Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ried Grazer AK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ried

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ried ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grazer AK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.80
12.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.80
39.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ried +2.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Grazer AK -2.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ried
Grazer AK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ried ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grazer AK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ried Grazer AK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ried Grazer AK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ried
Grazer AK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ried
vs
Grazer AK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ried Grazer AK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ried 0.29
Grazer AK 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ried Grazer AK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ried 0.04
Grazer AK 0.03
Ried
Grazer AK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Ried had peak pressure around 20'.
  • Ried started the game with stronger pressure.
Ried Pressure GAK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Ried reached the top pressure at 20' (82.18).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ried Ried Home
11 matches
Grazer AK GAK Away
Match Record
5
Wins
1
5
Draws
5
1
Losses
5
Goals
21
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
21
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:02:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-3-3-1
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
A. Leitner
Austria
1 A. Leitner
N. Havenaar
Japan
5 N. Havenaar
M. Sollbauer
Austria
23 M. Sollbauer
O. Steurer
Germany
30 O. Steurer
P. Pomer
Austria
17 P. Pomer
M. Maart
South Africa
6 M. Maart
N. Bajlicz
Substitution
Austria
28 N. Bajlicz
A. Bajic
Austria
12 A. Bajic
Y. Nasrawe
Substitution
Germany
19 Y. Nasrawe
A. Van Wyk
Substitution
South Africa
29 A. Van Wyk
K. Mutandwa
Zambia
7 K. Mutandwa
F. Stolz
Austria
12 F. Stolz
L. Vraa-Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
3 L. Vraa-Jensen
D. Pines
2 D. Pines
B. Owusu
France
82 B. Owusu
M. Olesen
Luxembourg
6 M. Olesen
M. Bagrationi
Substitution
Georgia
23 M. Bagrationi
C. Lichtenberger
Substitution
Austria
10 C. Lichtenberger
T. Koch
Substitution
Austria
8 T. Koch
L. Klassen
Russia
32 L. Klassen
R. Harakaté
France
22 R. Harakaté
A. Hofleitner
Substitution
Austria
25 A. Hofleitner

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 6 · Relegation Round
Stadium
josko ARENA
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniel Pfister
Mario Diesenberger
Manuel Koller
Stjepan Bosnjak

Statistics

Possession
Ried
52%
GAK
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 2
58 Dangerous attacks 28
50 Possession 50
5 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

22 Throwins 20
10 Goal Kicks 8
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
16 Dribble Attempts 7
8 Successful Dribbles 5
2 Assists 1
3 Substitutions 5
43 Ball Safe 52
9 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

104 Attacks 80
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

294 Successful Passes 279
78 Successful Passes Percentage 75
28 Successful Long Passes 26
64 Long Passes 60
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
376 Passes 373
12 Key Passes 3

Defensive

47 Duels Won 47
9 Tackles 18
8 Interceptions 7
1 Saves 4

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 16
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Pfister

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Leitner
Andreas Leitner Goalkeeper
6.86
5
Benjamin Garcia
Benjamin Garcia Defender
7
23
Michael Sollbauer
Michael Sollbauer Defender
6.76
30
Oliver Steurer
Oliver Steurer Defender
6.85
6
Yusuf Maart
Yusuf Maart Midfielder
7.01
17
Philipp Pomer
Philipp Pomer Midfielder
6.98
19
Yussef Nasrawe
Yussef Nasrawe Midfielder
6.57
26
Jonas Mayer
Jonas Mayer
Midfielder72'
6.67
28
Nicolas Bajlicz
Nicolas Bajlicz Midfielder
6.78
8
Martin Rasner
Martin Rasner
Midfielder72'
6.5
7
Kingstone Mutandwa
Kingstone Mutandwa Attacker
6.98
12
Ante Bajic
Ante Bajic Attacker
6.92
29
Antonio Van Wyk
Antonio Van Wyk Attacker
6.85
47
Evan Eghosa
Evan Eghosa
Midfielder78'
6.4
Referee : Daniel Pfister

Starting XI ▼

12
Franz Stolz
Franz Stolz Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Donovan Pines
Donovan Pines Defender
6.92
3
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen Defender
6.6
4
Martin Kreuzriegler
Martin Kreuzriegler
Defender46'
6.62
82
Beres Owusu
Beres Owusu Defender
6.87
6
Mathias Olesen
Mathias Olesen Midfielder
6.85
8
Tobias Koch
Tobias Koch Midfielder
6.78
24
Tim Paumgartner
Tim Paumgartner
Midfielder75'
6.46
10
Christian Lichtenberger
Christian Lichtenberger Midfielder
6.62
7
Murat Satin
Murat Satin
Midfielder46'
6.61
23
Mukhran Bagrationi
Mukhran Bagrationi Midfielder
7.23
28
Dominik Frieser
Dominik Frieser
Attacker46'
6.59
32
Leon Klassen
Leon Klassen Midfielder
7.02
22
Ramiz Harakate
Ramiz Harakate Attacker
7.08
25
Alexander Hofleitner
Alexander Hofleitner Attacker
6.73
11
Mark Grosse
Mark Grosse
Attacker62'
7.14

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Martin Rasner
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Ante Bajic
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Evan Eghosa → Antonio Van Wyk
8th Substitution
78'
75'
Event
Tim Paumgartner → Tobias Koch
7th Substitution
Event
Jonas Mayer → Yussef Nasrawe
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Martin Rasner → Nicolas Bajlicz
6th Substitution
72'
67'
Event
Mark Grosse
Header / 3rd Goal
62'
Event
Mark Grosse → Alexander Hofleitner
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Martin Kreuzriegler → Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Dominik Frieser → Mukhran Bagrationi
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Murat Satin → Christian Lichtenberger
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Donovan Pines
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
38'
Event
Mathias Olesen
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Leon Klassen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Kingstone Mutandwa
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
35'
Event
Ante Bajic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
28'
12'
Event
Tobias Koch
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Ried exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.