Qarabağ vs FC Twente preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu (Bakı (Baku))
Europa Conference League
QarabağQAR
1 4
FC TwenteTWE
Full Time: After Extra Time
Play-offs Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 4
Kady Borges - 59'
Goal
|
Goal
Marko Pjaca - 79'
Max Bruns - 90+2'
Younes Taha - 114'
Marko Jankovic 106' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Qarabağ 1–4 FC Twente. The result saw FC Twente take the points. FC Twente showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Qarabağ 0.6 – 3.1 FC Twente. Possession was 39%–61%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Qarabağ 1-4 FC Twente. FC Twente showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with underlying performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The final result proved consistent with the 0.56 to 3.08 expected goals split.
  • Market alignment: The observed outcome matched the pre-match market projection.
  • xG expectations: Away side generated markedly higher expected goals than the home team.
  • Event impact: Second half adjustments centered on red card distortion.
  • Red card distortion: Home team received one red card which altered match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Saggi
R. Saggi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Olav Dale
A. Olav Dale
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Skogsrud Haukåsen
O. Skogsrud Haukåsen
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Grøtta
M. Grøtta
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Qarabağ Q. Qurbanov
Q. Qurbanov
VS
FC Twente J. van den Brom
J. van den Brom
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Twente Rank: 78 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 70 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Qarabağ Rank: L
Dunajská Streda Rank: 77 D
Dunajská Streda Rank: 78 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Qarabağ
28.07%
Draw
24.59%
Away FC Twente
47.33%

Movement

Changes since opening
Qarabağ
+27.43%
Draw
+21.28%
FC Twente
-48.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
35.56
27.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Qarabağ
FC Twente
Power Score
35.56
27.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Qarabağ — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Twente — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Qarabağ FC Twente

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Qarabağ

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Twente

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Qarabağ ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Twente
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.69
55.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
55.90
27.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Qarabağ -2.19 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Twente +2.19 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Qarabağ
FC Twente
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Qarabağ
vs
FC Twente
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Qarabağ FC Twente
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
24%
26%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.13 vs -0.80
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Qarabağ FC Twente
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
26%
24%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.80 vs -0.13
Qarabağ
FC Twente
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Qarabağ
vs
FC Twente
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Qarabağ FC Twente
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Qarabağ 0.25
FC Twente 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Qarabağ FC Twente
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Qarabağ 0.04
FC Twente 0.03
Qarabağ
FC Twente
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TWE had peak pressure around 85'.
  • TWE started the game with stronger pressure.
QAR Pressure TWE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TWE reached the top pressure at 85' (85.90).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Qarabağ QAR Home
5 matches
FC Twente TWE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0.46
xG
1.30
1.30
xGA
0.46

Data last updated: 2026-08-28T00:00:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · Play-offs · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 4
Stadium
Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu (Bakı (Baku))
Capacity
31200
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Rohit Saggi
Anders Olav Dale
Ole Andreas Skogsrud Haukåsen
Marius Hansen Grøtta

Statistics

Possession
QAR
39%
TWE
61%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 5
4 Shots 8
36 Dangerous attacks 102
39 Possession 61
0 Corners 9
16 Free kicks 21
6 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

16 Goal Kicks 10
6 Substitutions 6
21 Throwins 25
1 Hit Woodwork 1
19 Dribble Attempts 23
5 Successful Dribbles 12
26 Successful Dribbles Percentage 52

Attacking

95 Attacks 160
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

92 Long Passes 95
428 Passes 651
324 Successful Passes 551
76 Successful Passes Percentage 85
7 Key Passes 23
31 Successful Long Passes 57
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60

Defensive

5 Saves 0
24 Tackles 19
11 Interceptions 7

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 31
3 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
21 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Rohit Saggi

Starting XI ▼

23
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
6.19
2
Matheus Silva
Matheus Silva Defender
6.41
4
Bence Várkonyi
Bence Várkonyi Defender
6.57
5
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa Defender
7.67
18
Dani Bolt
Dani Bolt
Defender76'
5.86
55
Badavi Hüseynov
Badavi Hüseynov (C) Defender
6.29
13
Bahlul Mustafazada
Bahlul Mustafazada
Defender114'
6.17
7
Jaly Mouaddib
Jaly Mouaddib Midfielder
6.68
32
Hikmat Cabrayilzada
Hikmat Cabrayilzada
Defender114'
6.26
8
Marko Jankovic
Marko Jankovic Midfielder
5.87
20
Kady Borges
Kady Borges Midfielder
7.32
9
Joni Montiel
Joni Montiel
Midfielder86'
6.34
21
Oleksiy Kashchuk
Oleksiy Kashchuk Midfielder
6.25
88
Samuel Lobato
Samuel Lobato Midfielder
6.92
35
Pedro Bicalho
Pedro Bicalho
Midfielder70'
6.26
22
Musa Qurbanly
Musa Qurbanly Attacker
7.29
25
Cebrail Makreckis
Cebrail Makreckis
Midfielder70'
5.84
Referee : Rohit Saggi

Starting XI ▼

1
Lars Unnerstall
Lars Unnerstall Goalkeeper
6.17
3
Robin Pröpper
Robin Pröpper (C) Defender
6.91
25
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink
Attacker70'
6.91
28
Bart van Rooij
Bart van Rooij Defender
6.95
38
Max Bruns
Max Bruns Defender
7.51
43
Ruud Nijstad
Ruud Nijstad Defender
6.61
29
Aske Adelgaard
Aske Adelgaard
Defender90+5'
6.63
6
Ramiz Zerrouki
Ramiz Zerrouki Midfielder
7.82
11
Daan Rots
Daan Rots Midfielder
7.51
20
Thomas van den Belt
Thomas van den Belt
Midfielder91'
6.86
19
Younes Taha
Younes Taha Midfielder
8
27
Sondre Ørjasæter
Sondre Ørjasæter Midfielder
7.24
7
Marko Pjaca
Marko Pjaca
Attacker70'
8.75
42
Daouda Weidmann
Daouda Weidmann Midfielder
8.78
4
Mathias Kjølø
Mathias Kjølø
Midfielder97'
6.58
9
Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst Attacker
7.84
17
Filip Thorvaldsen
Filip Thorvaldsen
Attacker109'
5.97

Events

2ND-HALF
116'
Event
Younes Taha
8th Yellowcard
Event
Hikmat Cabrayilzada → Jaly Mouaddib
11th Substitution
114'
Event
Bahlul Mustafazada → Badavi Hüseynov
12th Substitution
114'
114'
Event
Younes Taha
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
109'
Event
Filip Thorvaldsen → Wout Weghorst
10th Substitution
Event
Marko Jankovic
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
106'
106'
Event
Wout Weghorst
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
97'
Event
Mathias Kjølø → Daouda Weidmann
9th Substitution
94'
Event
Wout Weghorst
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Jaly Mouaddib
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
92'
91'
Event
Thomas van den Belt → Daan Rots
8th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Aske Adelgaard → Ruud Nijstad
7th Substitution
Event
Bence Várkonyi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+2'
Event
Max Bruns
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Marko Jankovic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Joni Montiel → Kady Borges
6th Substitution
86'
79'
Event
Marko Pjaca
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Dani Bolt → Bruno Langa
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Pedro Bicalho → Samuel Lobato
1st Substitution
70'
Event
Cebrail Makreckis → Musa Qurbanly
3rd Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink → Robin Pröpper 
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Marko Pjaca → Sondre Ørjasæter
4th Substitution
Event
Kady Borges
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
59'
Event
Samuel Lobato
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bruno Langa
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
22'
Event
Ramiz Zerrouki
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

118
Attempt Attempt
Filip Erik Thorvaldsen takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
116
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Younes Taha receives a yellow card.
114
Substitution Substitution
Hikmat Cabrayilzada is substituted off for Jaly Mouaddib.
114
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Younes Taha scores with a right-footed shot.
114
Update Update
Bahlul Mustafazada comes on for Badavi Huseynov.
114
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Younes Taha scores, making it 1-4.
113
Attempt Attempt
Filip Erik Thorvaldsen takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
110
Attempt Attempt
Jaly Mouaddib takes a shot with his head but misses.
109
Update Update
Filip Erik Thorvaldsen comes on for Wout Weghorst.
106
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marko Jankovic receives a second yellow card.
106
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wout Weghorst receives a yellow card.
106
Red Card Red Card Important
Marko Jankovic receives a red card.
97
Update Update
Mathias Ullereng Kjolo comes on for Daouda Weidmann.
94
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Wout Weghorst scores with a right-footed shot.
94
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Weidmann takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
94
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wout Weghorst scores to make it 1-3, assisted by Daouda Weidmann.
92
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jaly Mouaddib.
91
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Thomas Van Den Belt comes on for Daan Rots.
90
Update Update
Adelgaard Aske comes on for Ruud Nijstad.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Bence Varkonyi.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Max Bruns takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Max Bruns scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Marko Pjaca.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marko Jankovic receives a yellow card.
87
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Montiel Caballero takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Update Update
On Jonatan Montiel Caballero, off Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski.
82
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Daan Rots takes a left-footed shot but misses.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Marko Pjaca scores with a right-footed shot.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marko Pjaca scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Wout Weghorst.
78
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Weidmann takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Substitution Substitution
Daniel Lima de Castro is substituted off for Bruno Alberto Langa.
75
Attempt Attempt
Marko Pjaca takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink's header is saved.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Attempt Attempt
Daan Rots takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Max Bruns Head Shot Missed
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Attempt Attempt
Jaly Mouaddib takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
70
Substitution Substitution
Pedro Henrique Rodrigues Bicalho is substituted for Samuel Lobato.
70
Substitution Substitution
Cebrail Makreckis is substituted off for Musa Qurbanly.
70
Substitution Substitution
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink is substituted off for Robin Propper.
70
Update Update
On Marko Pjaca, Off Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter.
69
Attempt Attempt
Jaly Mouaddib takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Daan Rots takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Daan Rots takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Attempt Attempt
Wout Weghorst takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter takes a left-footed shot but misses.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Musa Qurbanly.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Samuel Lobato.
56
Attempt Attempt
Daan Rots takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
51
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Weidmann takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Attempt Attempt
Wout Weghorst takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Jaly Mouaddib takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Lobato takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Jaly Mouaddib takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
28
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Weidmann takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bruno Alberto Langa receives a yellow card.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ramiz Zerrouki.
21
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Zerrouki takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Rohit Saggi.

CONCLUSION

The second leg concluded with FC Twente claiming a 4-1 victory that confirmed their aggregate success. Qarabağ played the majority of the second half with ten players after the red card. Expected goals data showed a clear advantage for the visitors throughout the contest. Possession figures further illustrated the away side's control after the interval. The halftime score of 0-0 gave little indication of the eventual scoreline. Overall the performance metrics supported the final result without contradiction. The tie progressed according to the stronger underlying numbers displayed by FC Twente.