Qarabağ vs CSKA Sofia preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu Thu, 23 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa League
QarabağQAR
0 – 0
CSKA SofiaCSK
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 4:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Qarabağ hosted CSKA Sofia in the first leg of their knockout tie and the match concluded with a 0-0 scoreline after a balanced contest. Both teams entered halftime level at 0-0 with possession split at 48 percent for the home side and 52 percent for the visitors. No goals were scored in either half and the game remained without red cards throughout. CSKA Sofia entered as the stronger side on paper yet the outcome stayed level. The second half produced no further adjustments to the score or major tactical shifts. The draw leaves the tie open for the return leg with both teams holding clean sheets. This result reflects a cautious approach from both sides focused on defensive organization.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: CSKA Sofia recorded a significant structural deviation of 78 percent from pre-match positioning.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics remained in line with overall team performance levels.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final draw outcome did not align with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals figures were recorded for either team in this fixture.
  • Event impact: The 0-0 draw in leg one leaves the aggregate tie level heading into the second leg.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics experienced no related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Chiffi
D. Chiffi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Baccini
G. Baccini
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Lo Cicero
A. Lo Cicero
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Perenzoni
D. Perenzoni
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Qarabağ Q. Qurbanov
Q. Qurbanov
VS
CSKA Sofia H. Yanev
H. Yanev
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vestri Rank: W
Vestri Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derry City Rank: W
Derry City Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Qarabağ
62.87%
Draw
21.99%
Away CSKA Sofia
15.14%

Movement

Changes since opening
Qarabağ
+55.85%
Draw
-66.64%
CSKA Sofia
+10.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Qarabağ
CSKA Sofia
Power Score
26
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Qarabağ — Opponent-weighted form score
CSKA Sofia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Qarabağ CSKA Sofia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Qarabağ

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

CSKA Sofia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Qarabağ ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy CSKA Sofia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.96
27.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.50
33.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Qarabağ +0.33 Efficiency Index
vs
CSKA Sofia -0.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Qarabağ
CSKA Sofia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Qarabağ ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy CSKA Sofia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Qarabağ CSKA Sofia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Qarabağ CSKA Sofia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Qarabağ
CSKA Sofia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Qarabağ
vs
CSKA Sofia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Qarabağ CSKA Sofia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Qarabağ 0.14
CSKA Sofia 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Qarabağ CSKA Sofia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Qarabağ 0.00
CSKA Sofia 0.00
Qarabağ
CSKA Sofia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • QAR had peak pressure around 18'.
  • QAR started the game with stronger pressure.
QAR Pressure CSK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: QAR reached the top pressure at 18' (74.11).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu
Capacity
5800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniele Chiffi
Giovanni Baccini
Alessandro Lo Cicero
Daniele Perenzoni

Statistics

Possession
QAR
52%
CSK
48%

Top Statistics

7 Shots 7
86 Dangerous attacks 66
48 Possession 52
8 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 6
20 Throwins 21

Attacking

100 Attacks 93

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
11 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

99
Mateusz Kochalski
Mateusz Kochalski Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Matheus Silva
Matheus Silva Defender
6.5
4
Bence Várkonyi
Bence Várkonyi Defender
6.5
5
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa Defender
6.5
44
Elvin Cafarquliyev
Elvin Cafarquliyev
Midfielder56'
6.5
55
Badavi Hüseynov
Badavi Hüseynov Defender
6.5
25
Cebrail Makreckis
Cebrail Makreckis
Midfielder74'
6.5
8
Marko Jankovic
Marko Jankovic Midfielder
6.45
29
Renaldo Cephas
Renaldo Cephas
Attacker56'
6.5
10
Abdellah Zoubir
Abdellah Zoubir Midfielder
6.5
9
Joni Montiel
Joni Montiel
Midfielder78'
6.5
20
Kady Borges
Kady Borges Midfielder
6.5
21
Oleksiy Kashchuk
Oleksiy Kashchuk Midfielder
6.5
7
Jaly Mouaddib
Jaly Mouaddib
Midfielder74'
6.5
35
Pedro Bicalho
Pedro Bicalho Midfielder
6.5
11
Zakaria Sawo
Zakaria Sawo Attacker
6.5
Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

21
Fedor Lapoukhov
Fedor Lapoukhov Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Pastor
Pastor Defender
6.5
11
Mohamed Brahimi
Mohamed Brahimi
Midfielder90+1'
5
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Defender
6.5
14
Teodor Ivanov
Teodor Ivanov Defender
6.5
17
Ángelo Martino
Ángelo Martino Defender
6.5
3
Tamimou Ouorou
Tamimou Ouorou
Defender84'
6.5
32
Facundo Rodríguez
Facundo Rodríguez Defender
6.49
6
Bruno Jordão
Bruno Jordão Midfielder
6.5
7
Maks Ebong
Maks Ebong Midfielder
6.5
94
Isaac Solet
Isaac Solet
Midfielder73'
6.5
8
Stefano Sensi
Stefano Sensi Midfielder
6.5
30
Petko Panayotov
Petko Panayotov
Midfielder90+1'
9
Leandro Godoy
Leandro Godoy Attacker
6.46
10
Joël Zwarts
Joël Zwarts
Attacker73'
6.5
28
Ioannis Pittas
Ioannis Pittas Attacker
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Mohamed Brahimi → Pastor
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Petko Panayotov → Stefano Sensi
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Tamimou Ouorou → Ángelo Martino
8th Substitution
Event
Joni Montiel → Abdellah Zoubir 
7th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Facundo Rodríguez
Roughing / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Cebrail Makreckis → Badavi Hüseynov
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Jaly Mouaddib → Oleksiy Kashchuk
6th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Isaac Solet → Maks Ebong
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Joël Zwarts → Leandro Godoy
4th Substitution
Event
Kady Borges
Offside / Goal Disallowed
59'
Event
Elvin Cafarquliyev → Bruno Langa
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Renaldo Cephas → Marko Jankovic
2nd Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
Event
Marko Jankovic
Roughing / 2nd Yellowcard
37'
35'
Event
Leandro Godoy
Holding / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Update Update
Petko Panayotov comes on for Stefano Sensi.
90
Update Update
On comes Mohamed Brahimi, off goes David Samuel Custodio Lima.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Update Update
Tamimou Ouorou is on, and Angelo Martino is off.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Update Update
Jonatan Montiel Caballero is on, and Abdellah Zoubir is off.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Facundo Rodriguez.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Update Update
Cebrail Makreckis comes on for Badavi Huseynov.
74
Update Update
On Jaly Mouaddib, off Oleksii Kashchuk.
73
Update Update
Isaac Solet is on, and Max Ebong Ngome is off.
73
Update Update
On comes Joel Zwarts, off goes Santiago Leandro Godoy.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Update Update
Renaldo Cephas replaces Marko Jankovic.
56
Update Update
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev comes on for Bruno Alberto Langa.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marko Jankovic receives a yellow card.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Santiago Leandro Godoy.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Daniele Chiffi.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Qarabağ 0-0 CSKA Sofia. Structural assessment: CSKA Sofia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.