Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake preview
2026 Major League Soccer, United States
Providence Park
Sun, 26 Jul - 2:30 AM
Regular Season
STANDINGS
Loading standings...
Sorry, standings could not be loaded right now.
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 13
CONTEXT
In a surprising turn of events, Portland Timbers came from behind to defeat Real Salt Lake by a score of 2-1. At halftime the visitors led 1-0, but the game changed when Real Salt Lake was reduced to ten men due to a red card. Portland Timbers responded with increased pressure, leveraging their 61 percent possession to create opportunities worth 1.95 expected goals. Real Salt Lake managed only 0.19 xG in the match. Despite being considered the stronger side initially, the away team could not maintain their lead after the dismissal. The result proved consistent with the underlying metrics and featured a notable performance deviation from Portland Timbers. This victory underscores the impact of key events on the final outcome in competitive soccer matches.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Final score: Portland Timbers 2-1 Real Salt Lake. Portland Timbers showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with projections for the contest.
-
xG alignment: The final result aligned with xG where home team recorded 1.95 and away 0.19.
-
Market alignment: The outcome proved consistent with market alignment indicators.
-
xG expectations: Portland Timbers met xG expectations while Real Salt Lake fell short.
-
Event impact: The red card event had a major impact on second half dynamics.
-
Red card distortion: Red card distortion significantly altered the match proceedings after halftime.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Arreguin
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
30.4
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
4
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
C. Blanchard
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
C. Corte
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
B. Stevis
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
M. Cifuentes Corvillo
VS
P. Mastroeni
1.13
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dallas
Rank: 66
D
Seattle Sounders
Rank: 70
W
SJ Earthquakes
Rank: 66
L
Inter Miami
Rank: 77
L
CF Montréal
Rank: 57
D
Sporting KC
Rank: 53
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Los Angeles FC
Rank: 71
L
Minnesota United
Rank: 65
D
Colorado Rapids
Rank: 62
W
Houston Dynamo
Rank: 63
W
Dallas
Rank: 67
L
Portland Timbers
Rank: 63
W
2
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 2
2
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.55
64.84
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
Power Score
62.55
64.84
League Position
10
5
Global Rank
488
405
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Portland Timbers
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Real Salt Lake
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Portland Timbers Real Salt Lake
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Portland Timbers
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Real Salt Lake
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Portland Timbers
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Real Salt Lake
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.26
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Portland Timbers
+1.66
Efficiency Index
vs
Real Salt Lake
-1.66
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Portland Timbers
vs
Real Salt Lake
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
43%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.84
vs
-0.01
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
5%
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.01
vs
-0.84
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Portland Timbers
vs
Real Salt Lake
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Portland Timbers
0.22
Real Salt Lake
0.16
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Portland Timbers
0.03
Real Salt Lake
0.02
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- POT had peak pressure around 31'.
- RSL started the game with stronger pressure.
POT Pressure
RSL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
POT reached the top pressure at 31' (100.00).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Portland Timbers
POT
Home
6
matches
Real Salt Lake
RSL
Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
9
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-07-27T00:01:22+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-1-4-1
Match Formation
3-4-3
General Information
Date & Time
Jul 26, 2026, 02:30 AM
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
Providence Park
Capacity
25218
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Elijio Arreguin
Cameron Blanchard
Christopher Corte
Brandon Stevis
Next Match
Portland Timbers
vs
Seattle Sounders
League: Major League Soccer
Kickoff: Sun, 2 Aug - 2:30 AM
Venue: Providence Park
Real Salt Lake
vs
St. Louis City
League: Major League Soccer
Kickoff: Sun, 2 Aug - 12:30 AM
Venue: Energizer Park
Statistics
Possession
POT
60%
RSL
40%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
1
6
Big Chances Created
1
8
Shots
4
98
Dangerous attacks
38
61
Possession
39
14
Corners
5
13
Free kicks
12
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
55
Ball Safe
67
3
Goal Kicks
9
14
Goal Attempts
7
4
Substitutions
5
21
Throwins
11
1
Hit Woodwork
0
19
Successful Headers
11
2
Assists
1
0
Injuries
1
24
Dribble Attempts
10
10
Successful Dribbles
4
42
Successful Dribbles Percentage
40
Attacking
119
Attacks
78
4
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
33
Long Passes
65
524
Passes
339
463
Successful Passes
264
88
Successful Passes Percentage
78
22
Key Passes
3
19
Successful Long Passes
30
58
Successful Long Passes Percentage
46
Defensive
1
Saves
4
12
Tackles
17
8
Interceptions
4
52
Duels Won
44
Build-up
37
Total Crosses
14
11
Accurate Crosses
2
Discipline
4
Offsides
2
12
Fouls
13
Lineup
Referee :
Elijio Arreguin
Manager ▼
M. Cifuentes Corvillo
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
25
Trey Muse
Goalkeeper
6
Alex Bonetig
Defender
15
Eric Miller
Defender
23
Ian Smith
Defender
53
Sawyer Jura
Defender
Referee :
Elijio Arreguin
Manager ▼
P. Mastroeni
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
31
Mason Stajduhar
Goalkeeper
7
Pablo Ruiz
Midfielder
23
Zach Booth
Midfielder
27
Griffin Dillon
Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
9th Substitution
86'
85'
8th Substitution
74'
5th Substitution
74'
6th Substitution
74'
7th Substitution
3rd Substitution
72'
4th Substitution
72'
Header / 3rd Goal
67'
58'
2nd Substitution
1st Substitution
57'
Header / 2nd Goal
56'
55'
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
34'
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
33'
Card adjusted
18'
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'
CONCLUSION
The match between Portland Timbers and Real Salt Lake concluded with a 2-1 result that reflected the xG differential of 1.76 in favor of the home team. Following the red card, adjustments in the second half allowed Portland to dominate proceedings and secure the three points. Efficiency levels stayed aligned with the overall expectations for both squads involved. The structural deviation observed was significant and primarily attributed to the winning side. Event impacts from the dismissal played a crucial role in altering the game's trajectory. Overall the performance metrics supported the final scoreline without any major inconsistencies noted in the data. This outcome serves as a reminder of how in-game incidents can influence results beyond initial team strengths.
Match Commentary