Pogoń Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa preview

Poland flag 2026/2027 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera Fri, 24 Jul - 6:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Pogoń SzczecinPSZ
0 1
Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa
Full Time Fri, 24 Jul 6:30 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
|
Goal
Zoran Arsenic - 90+6'

CONTEXT

Pogoń Szczecin hosted Legia Warszawa in a match that concluded with a 0-1 scoreline. The first half ended level at 0-0. Legia Warszawa controlled 59 percent of possession compared to the home side's 41 percent. No red cards were shown to either team. Legia Warszawa entered as the stronger side and secured the win. Pre-match indicators showed a significant deviation level of 100 percent associated with Legia Warszawa. The outcome proved consistent with the aligned market projection. Efficiency metrics remained in line with the stronger team's expected output. Second half adjustments were minimal and did not alter the overall pattern. The match featured no knockout tie elements or additional disruptions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Legia Warszawa recorded a significant deviation of 100 percent in the match outcome.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with the stronger team's performance.
  • xG alignment: xG values were unavailable so alignment with the 0-1 result could not be confirmed.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with the pre-match market projection.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals data was not recorded for either side in this fixture.
  • Event impact: The away side scored the only goal after a 0-0 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics experienced no related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Frankowski
B. Frankowski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Golis
D. Golis
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Błażejczyk
D. Błażejczyk
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Pazdecki
P. Pazdecki
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Pogoń Szczecin Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
VS
Legia Warszawa M. Papszun
M. Papszun
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice Rank: 67 D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 64 W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 69 L
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 62 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 74 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: 62 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 60 W
Nieciecza Rank: 55 W
Widzew Lodz Rank: 63 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 74 L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 64 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.13
69.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pogoń Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
Power Score
64.13
69.46
League Position
18
2
Global Rank
413
260

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Legia Warszawa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.15
45.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.59
29.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Pogoń Szczecin -1.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Legia Warszawa +1.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Pogoń Szczecin
vs
Legia Warszawa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Pogoń Szczecin 0.26
Legia Warszawa 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Pogoń Szczecin 0.02
Legia Warszawa 0.00
Pogoń Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Legia Warszawa had peak pressure around 60'.
  • Legia Warszawa started the game with stronger pressure.
PSZ Pressure Legia Warszawa Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Legia Warszawa reached the top pressure at 60' (94.12).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pogoń Szczecin PSZ Home
4 matches
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-25T00:01:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 24, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Capacity
18027
Attendance
20757
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bartosz Frankowski
Dawid Igor Golis
Dawid Błażejczyk
Piotr Pazdecki

Statistics

Possession
PSZ
43%
Legia Warszawa
57%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 5
5 Shots 10
39 Dangerous attacks 58
41 Possession 59
3 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

52 Ball Safe 54
10 Goal Kicks 6
8 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
10 Throwins 16
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 2
7 Dribble Attempts 7
4 Successful Dribbles 5
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71

Attacking

61 Attacks 81
2 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

63 Long Passes 54
340 Passes 480
264 Successful Passes 404
78 Successful Passes Percentage 84
26 Successful Long Passes 22
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

4 Saves 4
7 Tackles 6
5 Interceptions 6
50 Duels Won 48

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 30
5 Accurate Crosses 11

Discipline

1 Offsides 4
15 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
7.43
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges Defender
6.89
13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Dimitrios Keramitsis Defender
6.8
28
Linus Wahlqvist
Linus Wahlqvist (C) Defender
6.65
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Defender
7.05
3
Kellyn Acosta
Kellyn Acosta Midfielder
6.7
6
Jan Biegański
Jan Biegański
Midfielder90'
6.51
7
Musa Juwara
Musa Juwara Midfielder
6.72
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad
Midfielder62'
7
16
Patryk Dziczek
Patryk Dziczek Midfielder
7.25
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Midfielder
6.35
10
Filip Cuic
Filip Cuic
Attacker90'
6.47
47
Natan Ława
Natan Ława Midfielder
6.48
25
Mads Agger
Mads Agger
Attacker62'
6.6
17
Jean-Pierre Nsame
Jean-Pierre Nsame Attacker
7.05
11
Kamil Grosicki
Kamil Grosicki
Midfielder62'
6.85
Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Starting XI ▼

89
Otto Hindrich
Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
7.59
5
R. Deziel
R. Deziel Defender
7.19
24
Zoran Arsenic
Zoran Arsenic
Defender88'
7.29
8
Rafal Augustyniak
Rafal Augustyniak Defender
7.32
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Kamil Piatkowski Defender
7.82
4
Damian Szymanski
Damian Szymanski Midfielder
6.92
6
Henrique Arreiol
Henrique Arreiol
Midfielder83'
6.63
19
Rúben Vinagre
Rúben Vinagre Midfielder
7.49
13
Arkadiusz Reca
Arkadiusz Reca
Defender88'
22
Pawel Wszolek
Pawel Wszolek Midfielder
7.79
53
Wojciech Urbanski
Wojciech Urbanski Midfielder
6.66
67
Bartosz Kapustka
Bartosz Kapustka (C) Midfielder
6.45
21
Vahan Bichakhchyan
Vahan Bichakhchyan
Midfielder81'
6.59
29
Mileta Rajović
Mileta Rajović Attacker
6.11
79
Lukasz Zjawinski
Lukasz Zjawinski Attacker
6.85
20
Jakub Zewlakow
Jakub Zewlakow
Attacker81'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Zoran Arsenic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Jan Biegański → Kellyn Acosta
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Filip Cuic → Paul Mukairu
10th Substitution
90'
88'
Event
Zoran Arsenic → R. Deziel
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Arkadiusz Reca → Rúben Vinagre
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Henrique Arreiol → Damian Szymanski
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Vahan Bichakhchyan → Bartosz Kapustka
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Jakub Zewlakow → Lukasz Zjawinski
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Wojciech Urbanski
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Mads Agger → Natan Ława
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Kamil Grosicki  → Jean-Pierre Nsame
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Fredrik Ulvestad → Musa Juwara
3rd Substitution
62'
1ST-HALF
Event
Léo Borges
Delay of game / 1st Yellowcard
24'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Zoran Arsenic takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Pawel Wszolek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Zoran Arsenic scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Pawel Wszolek.
90
Attempt Attempt
Henrique Arreiol takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Piatkowski takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mileta Rajovic takes a shot with his head but misses.
90
Update Update
Jan Bieganski replaces Kellyn Acosta.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mileta Rajovic takes a header shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Zoran Arsenic comes on for Robert Deziel.
88
Update Update
Arkadiusz Reca comes on for Ruben Vinagre.
87
Attempt Attempt
Vahan Bichakhchyan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Dziczek takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
83
Update Update
Henrique Arreiol replaces Damian Szymanski.
81
Update Update
Vahan Bichakhchyan comes on for Bartosz Kapustka.
81
Update Update
Jakub Zewlakow comes on for Lukasz Zjawinski.
80
Attempt Attempt
Kellyn Acosta takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Paul Omo Mukairu takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Lukasz Zjawinski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Mileta Rajovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Lukasz Zjawinski takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Lukasz Zjawinski attempts a header but misses the shot.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Vinagre takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wojciech Urbanski receives a yellow card.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Attempt Attempt
Fredrik Ulvestad takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Grosicki takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Lukasz Zjawinski takes a left-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Borges Da Silva takes a left-footed shot but misses.
62
Substitution Substitution
Mads Agger is substituted off for Natan Lawa.
62
Update Update
Fredrik Ulvestad is on, and Musa Juwara is off.
62
Update Update
Kamil Grosicki comes on for Jean Pierre Nsame.
62
Update Update
Fredrik Ulvestad is on, and Musa Juwara is off.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Mads Agger comes on for Natan Lawa.
59
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Kapustka takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Lukasz Zjawinski takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Augustyniak attempts a header but misses the shot.
51
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Kapustka takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Jean Pierre Nsame takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Pawel Wszolek takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Damian Szymanski takes a shot with his head but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Natan Lawa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Attempt Attempt
Jean Pierre Nsame's header is saved.
27
Attempt Attempt
Mileta Rajovic takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Leonardo Borges Da Silva.
23
Attempt Attempt
Mileta Rajovic takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Attempt Attempt
Robert Deziel takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Musa Juwara takes a left-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Augustyniak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Update Update
Rafal Augustyniak takes a header, but it hits the post.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Attempt Attempt
Mileta Rajovic takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Bartosz Frankowski.

CONCLUSION

The 0-1 result reflected Legia Warszawa's ability to convert possession advantage into the decisive goal after an even opening period. Pogoń Szczecin maintained defensive structure through the first half yet could not prevent the away side from breaking through later. Absence of disciplinary incidents allowed both teams to complete their tactical plans without numerical changes. Possession split of 41 to 59 percent underscored Legia Warszawa's control without translating into multiple scoring opportunities. The significant deviation noted for the winner aligned with the observed market consistency. Efficiency remained steady throughout and supported the stronger team's progression to victory. Overall the contest stayed within expected parameters given the team strengths and available metrics.