Panevėžys vs Tobol preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas
Europa Conference League
PanevėžysPAN
1 – 1
TobolTOB
Full Time
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

In the first leg of their two-legged tie Panevėžys hosted Tobol and the match concluded 1-1. Panevėžys took an early advantage and led 1-0 at halftime before Tobol equalized in the second period. The home side entered as the stronger team yet could not protect their lead against a visitor side that dominated possession with 62 percent compared to 38 percent for Panevėžys. No red cards were shown allowing both teams to complete the fixture with full complements. The significant deviation recorded for the home side highlighted how the result diverged from pre-match indicators. This draw leaves the aggregate balanced ahead of the return leg where either side can still advance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Panevėžys recorded a significant structural deviation of 73.3 percent from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the match dynamics observed for both sides.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 draw was not aligned with market expectations according to the recorded data.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to the absence of expected goals metrics.
  • Event impact: The halftime lead of 1-0 created a decisive event impact that shaped second-half play.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so red card distortion played no role in the outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Aslam
M. Aslam
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Rossland
A. Rossland
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
E. Helgerud
E. Helgerud
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Lien
M. Lien
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Panevėžys T. Korkeakunnas
T. Korkeakunnas
VS
Tobol M. Romashchenko
M. Romashchenko
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Panevėžys
23.33%
Draw
26.66%
Away Tobol
50.01%

Movement

Changes since opening
Panevėžys
+16.37%
Draw
-60.35%
Tobol
+43.98%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Panevėžys
Tobol
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Panevėžys — Opponent-weighted form score
Tobol — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Panevėžys Tobol

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Panevėžys

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tobol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Panevėžys ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tobol
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.21
35.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.56
29.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Panevėžys -0.51 Efficiency Index
vs
Tobol +0.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Panevėžys
Tobol
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Panevėžys ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tobol
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Panevėžys Tobol
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Panevėžys Tobol
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Panevėžys
Tobol
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Panevėžys
vs
Tobol
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Panevėžys Tobol
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Panevėžys 0.21
Tobol 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Panevėžys Tobol
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Panevėžys 0.01
Tobol 0.02
Panevėžys
Tobol
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TOB had peak pressure around 73'.
  • TOB started the game with stronger pressure.
PAN Pressure TOB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TOB reached the top pressure at 73' (66.27).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas
Capacity
4000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mohammad Usman Aslam
Alf Olav Rossland
Edvard Helgerud
Marius Lien

Statistics

Possession
PAN
44%
TOB
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Shots 11
42 Dangerous attacks 81
38 Possession 62
6 Corners 9
15 Free kicks 16
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

83 Ball Safe 74
0 Penalties 1
6 Goal Attempts 14
5 Substitutions 4
28 Throwins 31
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

81 Attacks 100

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
16 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Mohammad Usman Aslam

Starting XI ▼

1
Vytautas Černiauskas
Vytautas Černiauskas (C) Goalkeeper
6.12
13
Strahinja Kerkez
Strahinja Kerkez Defender
6.26
33
Seydine Keita
Seydine Keita Defender
6.41
66
Dovydas Balsys
Dovydas Balsys Defender
6.5
95
Joël Bopesu
Joël Bopesu
Defender77'
6.26
6
Matas Ramanauskas
Matas Ramanauskas Midfielder
6.37
27
Kwadwo Asamoah
Kwadwo Asamoah Midfielder
6.45
17
Oleksandr Kurtsev
Oleksandr Kurtsev
Midfielder71'
6.37
34
Isaac Asante
Isaac Asante Midfielder
6.37
15
Justinas Januševskij
Justinas Januševskij
Defender88'
77
Parfait Bizoza
Parfait Bizoza Midfielder
6.33
79
Valdas Paulauskas
Valdas Paulauskas Midfielder
6.45
8
Salomon Kouadio
Salomon Kouadio
Midfielder71'
6.37
24
Nauris Petkevičius
Nauris Petkevičius Attacker
6.5
16
Marko Bačanin
Marko Bačanin
Attacker71'
6.46
28
Ernestas Burdzilauskas
Ernestas Burdzilauskas Attacker
6.46
Referee : Mohammad Usman Aslam

Starting XI ▼

1
Sultan Busurmanov
Sultan Busurmanov Goalkeeper
6.5
44
Danil Ustimenko
Danil Ustimenko
Goalkeeper41'
6.12
4
Nemanja Cavnic
Nemanja Cavnic Defender
6.45
5
Pape-Alioune Ndiaye
Pape-Alioune Ndiaye
Defender87'
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Defender
6.26
72
Rayan Senhadji
Rayan Senhadji Defender
6.26
6
Maksim Myakish
Maksim Myakish Midfielder
6.37
8
Askhat Tagybergen
Askhat Tagybergen (C) Midfielder
6.27
10
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov Midfielder
6.37
21
Nauryzbek Zhagorov
Nauryzbek Zhagorov Midfielder
6.37
30
Luis Guerra
Luis Guerra Midfielder
6.33
17
Aleksandr Zuev
Aleksandr Zuev
Midfielder71'
6.5
18
Uros Milovanović
Uros Milovanović Attacker
6.42
19
Dauren Zhumat
Dauren Zhumat Attacker
6.46
14
Amine Talal
Amine Talal
Midfielder46'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Justinas Januševskij → Isaac Asante
9th Substitution
88'
87'
Event
Pape-Alioune Ndiaye → Nemanja Cavnic
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Uros Milovanović
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Nemanja Cavnic
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Joël Bopesu → Dovydas Balsys
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Marko Bačanin → Nauris Petkevičius
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Salomon Kouadio → Valdas Paulauskas
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Oleksandr Kurtsev → Kwadwo Asamoah
5th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Aleksandr Zuev → Luis Guerra
6th Substitution
Event
Parfait Bizoza
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
63'
60'
Event
Askhat Tagybergen 
Goalkeeper save
Event
Kwadwo Asamoah
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
58'
46'
Event
Amine Talal → Dauren Zhumat
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Seydine Keita
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+2'
Event
Seydine Keita
Field Goal / 1st Goal
45'
41'
Event
Danil Ustimenko → Sultan Busurmanov
1st Substitution
35'
Event
Luis Guerra
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Valdas Paulauskas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'
Event
7th Yellowcard
22'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Substitution Substitution
Justinas Janusevskis is substituted off for Isaac Asante.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Update Update
On comes Joel Bopesu, off goes Dovydas Balsys.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Update Update
Salomon Kouadio comes on for Valdas Paulauskas.
71
Update Update
Marko Bacanin comes on for Nauris Petkevicius.
71
Update Update
Aleksandr Zuev comes on for Luis Guerra.
71
Update Update
On comes Marko Bacanin, off goes Nauris Petkevicius.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown.
60
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Askhat Tagybergen's attempt is unsuccessful.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Mohamed Amine Talal comes on for Dauren Zhumat.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Seydina Keita receives a yellow card.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Update Update
Danil Ustimenko is on, and Sultan Busurmanov is off.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Mohammad Usman Aslam.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result in leg one keeps the tie wide open for the second meeting between these sides. Panevėžys will need to improve their finishing and defensive organization away from home while Tobol can take confidence from their second-half response and greater share of possession. Both teams showed moments of quality but neither could claim a decisive edge on the night. The absence of any dismissals ensured a full-strength contest that sets up an intriguing return fixture. Coaches will now focus on tactical adjustments to exploit the lessons learned from this balanced encounter.