Palmeiras vs Atlético Mineiro preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Allianz Parque
Serie A
PalmeirasPAL
1 2
Atlético MineiroAMN
Full Time
Round 20 Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal
Victor Hugo - 54'
Igor Gomes - 77'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Palmeiras 1–2 Atlético Mineiro. The result saw Atlético Mineiro take the points. Atlético Mineiro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Palmeiras 2.1 – 1.1 Atlético Mineiro. Possession was 69%–31%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Palmeiras 1-2 Atlético Mineiro. Atlético Mineiro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was not consistent with the xG figures of 2.08 to 1.07.
  • Market alignment: The result proved aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Palmeiras generated higher xG yet finished on the losing side.
  • Event impact: Second-half events enabled Atlético Mineiro to secure the win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued during the entire match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Arleu de Araujo
B. Arleu de Araujo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
T. Neto Correa Farinha
T. Neto Correa Farinha
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Regazzone
L. Regazzone
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Sousa
M. Sousa
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Palmeiras A. Moreira Ferreira
A. Moreira Ferreira
VS
Atlético Mineiro E. Domínguez
E. Domínguez
2.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Coritiba Rank: 59 W
Chapecoense Rank: 53 W
Flamengo Rank: 77 W
Cruzeiro Rank: 68 D
Remo Rank: 57 D
Santos Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bahia Rank: 62 D
Vasco da Gama Rank: 61 W
Corinthians Rank: 68 L
Mirassol Rank: 66 W
Botafogo Rank: 69 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 68 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.56
64.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palmeiras
Atlético Mineiro
Power Score
77.56
64.21
League Position
1
13
Global Rank
112
430

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palmeiras — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlético Mineiro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palmeiras Atlético Mineiro

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Palmeiras

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Atlético Mineiro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Palmeiras ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atlético Mineiro
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.06
25.81
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.81
24.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Palmeiras -0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Atlético Mineiro +0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Palmeiras
Atlético Mineiro
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Palmeiras
vs
Atlético Mineiro
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Palmeiras Atlético Mineiro
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
33%
30%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.69 vs -0.33
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Palmeiras Atlético Mineiro
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
30%
33%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.33 vs -0.69
Palmeiras
Atlético Mineiro
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Palmeiras
vs
Atlético Mineiro
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Palmeiras Atlético Mineiro
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Palmeiras 0.18
Atlético Mineiro 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Palmeiras Atlético Mineiro
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Palmeiras 0.05
Atlético Mineiro 0.00
Palmeiras
Atlético Mineiro
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PAL had peak pressure around 98'.
  • PAL started the game with stronger pressure.
PAL Pressure AMN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PAL reached the top pressure at 98' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palmeiras PAL Home
5 matches
Atlético Mineiro AMN Away
Match Record
4
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
4
Goals
14
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
14
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-27T00:05:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 20 · Regular Season
Stadium
Allianz Parque
Capacity
43713
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bruno Arleu de Araujo
Thiago Henrique Neto Correa Farinha
Luiz Claudio Regazzone
Marcos Sousa

Statistics

Possession
PAL
65%
AMN
35%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 4
89 Dangerous attacks 24
69 Possession 31
10 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

31 Ball Safe 39
7 Goal Kicks 15
7 Goal Attempts 3
6 Substitutions 5
22 Throwins 12
4 Successful Headers 12
10 Dribble Attempts 15
7 Successful Dribbles 8
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53

Attacking

152 Attacks 56
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

32 Long Passes 65
661 Passes 303
585 Successful Passes 218
89 Successful Passes Percentage 72
17 Key Passes 5
11 Successful Long Passes 20
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

Defensive

2 Saves 5
14 Tackles 7
9 Interceptions 12
36 Duels Won 37

Build-up

33 Total Crosses 12
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

1
Carlos Miguel
Carlos Miguel Goalkeeper
6.1
15
Gustavo Gómez
Gustavo Gómez (C) Defender
6.54
26
Murilo
Murilo Defender
7.01
32
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Defender
6.58
9
Vitor Roque
Vitor Roque
Attacker59'
6.55
4
Agustín Giay
Agustín Giay Midfielder
7.24
7
Felipe Anderson
Felipe Anderson
Midfielder59'
6.38
8
Andreas Pereira
Andreas Pereira Midfielder
7.19
17
Marlon Freitas
Marlon Freitas Midfielder
7.15
22
Joaquín Piquerez
Joaquín Piquerez Midfielder
6.83
56
Arthur Gabriel
Arthur Gabriel
Defender78'
10
Paulinho
Paulinho Attacker
6.66
39
Heittor Vinicius da Silva Nunes
Heittor Vinicius da Silva Nunes
Attacker65'
6.5
11
Jhon Arias
Jhon Arias Attacker
7.16
18
Mauricio
Mauricio Attacker
6.6
30
Lucas Evangelista
Lucas Evangelista
Midfielder78'
Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

22
Everson
Everson (C) Goalkeeper
7.1
2
Natanael
Natanael Defender
6.82
4
Ruan
Ruan Defender
6.86
6
Renan Lodi
Renan Lodi Defender
6.93
13
Lyanco
Lyanco Defender
7.02
8
Maycon
Maycon Midfielder
6.47
39
Mamady Cissé
Mamady Cissé
Midfielder46'
6.36
11
Bernard
Bernard Midfielder
7.01
27
Alan Minda
Alan Minda
Attacker71'
23
Angelo Preciado
Angelo Preciado Midfielder
6.74
14
Vitor Hugo
Vitor Hugo
Defender85'
25
Tomás Pérez
Tomás Pérez Midfielder
6.9
5
Alexsander
Alexsander
Midfielder90'
30
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo Midfielder
7.24
17
Igor Gomes
Igor Gomes
Midfielder71'
9
Mateo Cassierra
Mateo Cassierra Attacker
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Renan Lodi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Alexsander  → Tomás Pérez
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Vitor Hugo  → Angelo Preciado
9th Substitution
Event
Lucas Evangelista → Mauricio
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Arthur Gabriel → Joaquín Piquerez
8th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Igor Gomes
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
Event
Ruan
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Felipe Anderson
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
75'
71'
Event
Igor Gomes → Victor Hugo
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Alan Minda → Bernard
6th Substitution
Event
Heittor Vinicius da Silva Nunes → Paulinho 
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Felipe Anderson → Agustín Giay
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Vitor Roque → Emiliano Martínez
3rd Substitution
59'
54'
Event
Victor Hugo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
Event
Mamady Cissé  → Maycon 
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Angelo Preciado
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Joaquín Piquerez
Penalty disallowed
16'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Renan Augusto Lodi Dos Santos
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Renan Augusto Lodi Dos Santos
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Vitor Hugo Roque Ferreira Right Footed Shot Missed
86
Update Update
On Alexsander，Off Tomas Perez
86
Update Update
On Alexsander，Off Tomas Perez
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Murilo Cerqueira Paim Right Footed Shot Saved
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Murilo Cerqueira Paim Right Footed Shot Saved
85
Update Update
On Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza，Off Angelo Preciado
84
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gustavo Raul Gomez Portillo Head Shot Missed
84
Corner Corner
Corner
83
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Lucas Evangelista Left Footed Shot Saved
82
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Murilo Cerqueira Paim Head Shot Saved
82
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Murilo Cerqueira Paim Head Shot Blocked
81
Corner Corner
Corner
81
Corner Corner
Corner
81
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jhon Arias Left Footed Shot Blocked
81
Corner Corner
Corner
78
Update Update
On Lucas Evangelista，Off Mauricio Magalhaes Prado
78
Update Update
On Arthur Gabriel，Off Joaquin Piquerez Moreira
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Igor Gomes Left Footed Shot Goal
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 1-2
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Ruan Tressoldi Netto
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Felipe Anderson Pereira Gomes Left Footed Shot Goal
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 1-1
71
Update Update
On Igor Gomes，Off Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
71
Update Update
On Alan Minda，Off Bernard Anicio Caldeira Duarte
69
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jhon Arias Right Footed Shot Saved
67
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mamady Cisse Head Shot Missed
67
Corner Corner
Corner
66
Corner Corner
Corner
65
Update Update
On Heittor，Off Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho,Paulinho
62
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnov Right Footed Shot Missed
62
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Renan Augusto Lodi Dos Santos Left Footed Shot Blocked
62
Corner Corner
Corner
59
Update Update
On Vitor Hugo Roque Ferreira，Off Emiliano Martinez
59
Update Update
On Felipe Anderson Pereira Gomes，Off Agustin Giay
59
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gustavo Raul Gomez Portillo Head Shot Missed
58
Corner Corner
Corner
57
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jhon Arias Right Footed Shot Missed
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Victor Hugo Gomes Silva Right Footed Shot Goal
54
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Zander Mateo Casierra Cabezas Right Footed Shot Saved
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 0-1
54
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jhon Arias Right Footed Shot Missed
54
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mauricio Magalhaes Prado Left Footed Shot Blocked
52
Corner Corner
Corner
51
Corner Corner
Corner
49
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Andreas Hugo Hoelgebaum Pereira Right Footed Shot Saved
46
Update Update
On Mamady Cisse，Off Maycon de Andrade Barberan
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho,Paulinho Right Footed Shot Missed
45
Corner Corner
Corner
41
Corner Corner
Corner
39
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jhon Arias Right Footed Shot Blocked
37
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Zander Mateo Casierra Cabezas Right Footed Shot Saved
34
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jhon Arias Right Footed Shot Missed
32
Corner Corner
Corner
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Angelo Preciado
24
Corner Corner
Corner
22
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mauricio Magalhaes Prado Left Footed Shot Blocked
20
Corner Corner
Corner
17
Corner Corner
Corner
16
Corner Corner
Corner
15
Update Update
VAR Decision - vip_for_unknown.true
7
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Emiliano Martinez Right Footed Shot Saved
5
Corner Corner
Corner
4
Corner Corner
Corner
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Bruno Arleu de Araujo

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Palmeiras 1-2 Atlético Mineiro. Structural assessment: Atlético Mineiro exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.