Palermo vs Lecce preview

Italy flag 2026/2027 Coppa Italia, Italy
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Coppa Italia
PalermoPAL
2 0
LecceLEC
Full Time
1st Round
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Palermo hosted Lecce in a match that concluded with a 2-0 victory for the home side. Both goals arrived in the opening period, leaving the halftime score at 2-0. Despite Lecce controlling 55 percent of possession and generating a superior 3.97 expected goals against Palermo's 1.21, the visitors could not find the net. The stronger team on paper failed to convert its underlying metrics into a positive result. Palermo maintained a compact defensive shape after the interval and limited clear opportunities. No red cards were shown to players from either side. The outcome highlighted a clear gap between shot quality and finishing efficiency on the day.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Palermo 2-0 Lecce. Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall performance metrics observed.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was not consistent with the expected goals as Lecce held a higher xG total.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market expectations despite the xG differential.
  • xG expectations: Lecce generated 3.97 xG compared to Palermo's 1.21 yet failed to score.
  • Event impact: The match proceeded without major disruptive events affecting the flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued to either team during the contest.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Arena
A. Arena
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Yoshikawa
D. Yoshikawa
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Barone
C. Barone
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Marinelli
L. Marinelli
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
VS
Lecce E. Di Francesco
E. Di Francesco
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.3
71.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palermo
Lecce
Power Score
67.3
71.17
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
331
224

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palermo Lecce

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lecce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lecce
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.78
39.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.64
29.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Palermo — Efficiency Index
vs
Lecce — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Lecce
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Palermo
vs
Lecce
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Palermo Lecce
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
35%
5%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.43 vs -0.18
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Palermo Lecce
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
5%
35%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.18 vs -0.43
Palermo
Lecce
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Palermo
vs
Lecce
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Palermo Lecce
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Palermo 0.43
Lecce 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Palermo Lecce
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Palermo 0.00
Lecce 0.07
Palermo
Lecce
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEC had peak pressure around 33'.
  • PAL started the game with stronger pressure.
PAL Pressure LEC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEC reached the top pressure at 33' (82.60).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Coppa Italia, Italy · 1st Round
Stadium
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Capacity
36365
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alberto Arena
Daisuke Emanuele Yoshikawa
Claudio Barone
Livio Marinelli

Statistics

Possession
PAL
46%
LEC
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 5
5 Shots 9
28 Dangerous attacks 76
45 Possession 55
2 Corners 8
9 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

78 Ball Safe 69
15 Goal Kicks 8
9 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
21 Throwins 31
2 Assists 0
2 Injuries 1
16 Dribble Attempts 12
10 Successful Dribbles 6
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

78 Attacks 105
1 Big Chances Missed 5

Possession

50 Long Passes 39
360 Passes 413
290 Successful Passes 348
81 Successful Passes Percentage 84
9 Key Passes 14
20 Successful Long Passes 17
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

Defensive

3 Saves 3
19 Tackles 13
5 Interceptions 10
52 Duels Won 44

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 32
3 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
12 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Alberto Arena

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
6.58
14
Mattia Fortin
Mattia Fortin
Goalkeeper5'
7.03
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Defender
7.6
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Defender
6.75
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda Defender
8.34
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Defender
7.42
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Midfielder
6.4
23
Hernani
Hernani
Midfielder46'
6.71
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre (C) Midfielder
6.87
9
Dominic Vavassori
Dominic Vavassori Midfielder
7.19
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder
7.22
24
Nahuel Estévez
Nahuel Estévez
Midfielder77'
6.75
17
Dennis Johnsen
Dennis Johnsen Midfielder
7.05
7
Gabriel Strefezza
Gabriel Strefezza
Attacker62'
6.72
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
7.14
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron
Attacker46'
6.59
Referee : Alberto Arena

Starting XI ▼

30
Wladimiro Falcone
Wladimiro Falcone (C) Goalkeeper
6.48
4
Gaspar
Gaspar Defender
6.51
17
Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga Defender
6.72
25
Antonino Gallo
Antonino Gallo Defender
6.97
44
Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel Defender
6.82
11
Konan N’Dri
Konan N’Dri Midfielder
6.87
14
Youssef Maleh
Youssef Maleh Midfielder
6.43
9
Nikola Stulic
Nikola Stulic
Attacker46'
6.62
29
Lassana Coulibaly
Lassana Coulibaly Midfielder
6.61
77
Mohamed Kaba
Mohamed Kaba
Midfielder88'
50
Santiago Pierotti
Santiago Pierotti Midfielder
6.29
34
Hjalte Lærke
Hjalte Lærke
Attacker74'
6.81
79
Oumar Ngom
Oumar Ngom Midfielder
6.53
28
Olaf Gorter
Olaf Gorter
Midfielder74'
6.72
69
Willem Geubbels
Willem Geubbels Attacker
5.58
22
Paco Esteban
Paco Esteban
Attacker84'
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Mohamed Kaba → Lassana Coulibaly
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Paco Esteban → Willem Geubbels
9th Substitution
Event
Nahuel Estévez → Filippo Ranocchia
8th Substitution
77'
74'
Event
Olaf Gorter → Oumar Ngom
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Hjalte Lærke → Santiago Pierotti
7th Substitution
Event
Gabriel Strefezza → Dennis Johnsen
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Jérémy Le Douaron → Joel Pohjanpalo
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Hernani → Antonio Palumbo
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Nikola Stulic → Youssef Maleh
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Joel Pohjanpalo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
42'
35'
Event
Lassana Coulibaly
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Antonio Palumbo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
Event
Dominic Vavassori
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'
Event
Mattia Fortin → Jesse Joronen
1st Substitution
5'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Update Update
Mohamed Kaba comes on for Lassana Coulibaly.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Paco Esteban comes on for Willem Geubbels.
81
Attempt Attempt
Willem Geubbels takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Update Update
Nahuel Estevez comes on for Filippo Ranocchia.
76
Update Update
Nahuel Estevez is on, and Filippo Ranocchia is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Hjalte Laerke takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’dri with his left foot is blocked.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Strefezza takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Update Update
On comes Oumar Ngom, off goes Olaf Gorter.
73
Update Update
Hjalte Laerke is on, and Santiago Pierotti is off.
67
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Strefezza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Strefezza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Jacopo Segre takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
62
Update Update
Gabriel Strefezza replaces Dennis Johnsen.
62
Update Update
Gabriel Strefezza replaces Dennis Johnsen.
61
Update Update
Gabriel Strefezza replaces Dennis Johnsen.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Stulic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Willem Geubbels attempts a header but misses the shot.
56
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Pierotti's left-footed shot is blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Stulic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Tiago Gabriel Head Shot Missed
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Stulic attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Substitution Substitution
Hernani Azevedo Junior is substituted off for Antonio Palumbo.
46
Update Update
Nikola Stulic is on, and Youssef Maleh is off.
46
Update Update
Nikola Stulic comes on for Youssef Maleh.
45
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Johnsen takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Joel Pohjanpalo scores with a right-footed shot.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Lassana Coulibaly.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Lassana Coulibaly.
33
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Ranocchia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Willem Geubbels takes a left-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Willem Geubbels takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
19
Attempt Attempt
Joel Pohjanpalo takes a header shot but misses.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dominic Vavassori scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Patryk Peda.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Dominic Vavassori takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
14
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Johnsen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dominic Vavassori scores to make it 1-0.
8
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Johnsen's right-footed shot is blocked.
5
Update Update
Mattia Fortin replaces Jesse Joronen.
1
Attempt Attempt
Lassana Coulibaly takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Alberto Arena.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Palermo 2-0 Lecce. Structural assessment: Palermo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.