Palermo vs Catanzaro preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Renzo Barbera Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Palermo PAL
Catanzaro CAT
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Palermo welcome Catanzaro to the Stadio Renzo Barbera for a pivotal Serie B regular season encounter in the 2025/2026 campaign. The home side sit fourth in the table, just ahead of fifth-placed Catanzaro, making this a tight contest between promotion hopefuls. Palermo boast a superior power score of 64.22 to Catanzaro's 60.81, translating to a clear 3.4-point edge that underscores their structural dominance. Form metrics further tilt the scales, with Palermo's 28.33 rating dwarfing the visitors' 16.56, signaling sharper recent momentum. While detailed efficiency, transition, and set-piece data remain unavailable due to limited xG insights, Palermo's home advantage and higher standing position them strongly. Expect a competitive battle where the Rosanero's edge could prove decisive in shaping the playoff race.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Palermo hold a 64.22 power score against Catanzaro's 60.81, with a 3.4-point advantage.
  • Form: Palermo's form score of 28.33 outpaces Catanzaro's 16.56.
  • Squad: Palermo rank fourth and Catanzaro fifth in the Serie B standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to absent xG metrics.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not available for analysis.
  • Market: Baseline split: Palermo 52.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.8% (Δ+0%) | Catanzaro 22.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
VS
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
2.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.81
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: 47 D
Cesena Rank: 52 W
Frosinone Rank: 66 D
Avellino Rank: 54 W
Calcio Padova Rank: 49 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: 51 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Modena Rank: 57 D
Avellino Rank: 51 D
Monza Rank: 67 D
Cesena Rank: 52 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Palermo
52.72%
Draw
24.78%
Away Catanzaro
22.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.22
60.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palermo
Catanzaro
Power Score
64.22
60.81
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
345
448

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palermo Catanzaro

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palermo PAL Home
5 matches
Catanzaro CAT Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
6
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T12:30:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Joronen
Finland
66 J. Joronen
G. Magnani
Italy
96 G. Magnani
M. Bani
Italy
13 M. Bani
D. Veroli
Italy
72 D. Veroli
N. Pierozzi
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
R. Muati Modesto
Angola
18 R. Muati Modesto
F. Ranocchia
Italy
10 F. Ranocchia
S. Giovane
Italy
17 S. Giovane
E. Gyasi
Ghana
11 E. Gyasi
D. Johnsen
Norway
7 D. Johnsen
J. Pohjanpalo
Finland
20 J. Pohjanpalo
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
F. Moreira Pacheco
Brazil
6 F. Moreira Pacheco
M. Antonini Lui
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
F. Di Francesco
Italy
94 F. Di Francesco
R. Frosinini
Italy
62 R. Frosinini
M. Pompetti
Italy
21 M. Pompetti
S. Pontisso
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
C. Favasuli
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
R. Oudin
France
28 R. Oudin
P. Amoako Nuamah
Italy
19 P. Amoako Nuamah
F. Pittarello
Italy
8 F. Pittarello

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Capacity
36365
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Francesco Aloise
Andrea Niedda
Davide Santarossa
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Lineup

Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
7.02
13
Mattia Bani
Mattia Bani Defender
7.22
72
Davide Veroli
Davide Veroli Defender
6.8
96
Giangiacomo Magnani
Giangiacomo Magnani Defender
6.95
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder
7.3
17
Samuel Giovane
Samuel Giovane Midfielder
6.44
18
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto Midfielder
6.4
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Midfielder
6.92
7
Dennis Johnsen
Dennis Johnsen Attacker
6.58
11
Emmanuel Gyasi
Emmanuel Gyasi Attacker
6.57
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
7.22
Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.77
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
6.92
6
Fellipe Jack
Fellipe Jack Defender
6.93
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco Defender
6.81
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
7.2
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti Midfielder
6.65
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
6.94
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini Midfielder
6.59
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
7
19
Patrick Nuamah
Patrick Nuamah Attacker
6.47
28
Rémi Oudin
Rémi Oudin Attacker
6.62

CONCLUSION

Palermo enter this home clash with tangible advantages in power rating, form, and league position, positioning them as the team to beat against a resilient Catanzaro outfit. The 3.4-point power edge and superior 28.33 form score suggest the Rosanero can control proceedings at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Lacking granular data on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces, the focus falls on Palermo's overall structural strength and home crowd boost. Catanzaro's proximity in the table ensures no complacency, but Palermo's momentum points to a likely victory that bolsters their top-four aspirations in Serie B's cutthroat promotion fight.