Paide VS Zira – Bet 90

2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe

Pärnu Rannastaadion

Europa Conference League

Paide PAI

1 0

Zira ZIRA

Full Time

Thu, 23 Jul (UTC)4:00 PM (UTC)

2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2

Pa Abdou Cham - 87'

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested first leg encounter Paide secured a narrow 1-0 win over Zira. Both teams failed to score in the opening forty-five minutes leaving the halftime score level at zero goals apiece. Zira enjoyed greater possession at fifty-nine percent compared to Paide's forty-one percent yet this did not translate into goals. The absence of any red cards meant the game proceeded without numerical imbalances. Pre-match indicators had pointed toward Zira as the stronger side but Paide's efficiency proved decisive in claiming the victory. The significant deviation observed in the result highlighted how the actual performance diverged from anticipated patterns. With no expected goals data provided assessments relied on possession and outcome metrics alone. The single goal in the match proved sufficient for Paide to take a lead into the second leg.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Paide achieved a significant deviation from expectations by defeating the stronger Zira side.
Efficiency shift: The efficiency metrics remained in line with the observed match outcome.
xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing any alignment evaluation.
Market alignment: The final result did not align with pre-match market projections.
xG expectations: No xG values were recorded for either team in this fixture.
Event impact: The solitary goal scored by Paide determined the 1-0 match result.
Red card distortion: With zero red cards issued the game experienced no distortion from dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

R. Jitari

Referee • 25 matches

Fouls / Match

Referee 30.4

League Avg 0

Yellow Cards / Match

Referee 4

League Avg 0

Red Cards / Match

Referee 0.36

League Avg 0

Penalties / Match

Referee 0.36

League Avg 0

V. Mardari

1st Assistant • 0 matches

Fouls / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

Yellow Cards / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

Red Cards / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

Penalties / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

A. Bodean

2nd Assistant • 0 matches

Fouls / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

Yellow Cards / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

Red Cards / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

Penalties / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

A. Breguța

4th Official • 0 matches

Fouls / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

Yellow Cards / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

Red Cards / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

Penalties / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0

T. Kink

R. Sadıqov

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 0 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Paide

12.82%

Draw

23.29%

Zira

63.89%

Movement

Changes since opening

Paide

-80.92%

Draw

+17.67%

Zira

+63.26%

Team Power Ranking

36.67

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Paide

Zira

Power Score

36.67

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Paide — Opponent-weighted form score

Zira — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paide Zira

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Paide

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Zira

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paide ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Zira

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.98

27.80

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

27.80

30.98

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Paide +0.26 Efficiency Index

Zira -0.26 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Paide

Zira

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paide ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Zira

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Paide Zira

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Paide Zira

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Paide

Zira

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Paide

Zira

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Paide Zira

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Paide Zira

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Paide

Zira

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

PAI had peak pressure around 58'.
PAI started the game with stronger pressure.

PAI Pressure ZIRA Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: PAI reached the top pressure at 58' (61.36).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

General Information

Date & Time

Competition

2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2

Stadium

Pärnu Rannastaadion

Capacity

1500

Pitch Surface

Grass

Weather

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees

R. Jitari

Victor Mardari

Andrei Bodean

Andrei Breguța

Statistics

Possession

PAI

45%

ZIRA

55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

6 Shots 9

54 Dangerous attacks 68

41 Possession 59

7 Corners 3

20 Free kicks 17

2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

57 Ball Safe 67

6 Goal Attempts 10

5 Substitutions 4

16 Throwins 13

3 Injuries 0

Attacking

72 Attacks 96

Discipline

0 Offsides 2

15 Fouls 20

Lineup

Referee : R. Jitari

Manager ▼

T. Kink Coach

Starting XI ▼

Ebrima Jarju Goalkeeper

6.5

Michael Lilander Defender

6.5

Victor Hugo Defender

6.5

Edgar Tur Defender

6.5

Nikita Baranov Defender

6.49

Martin Miller Midfielder

6.5

Henrik Ojamaa

Midfielder79'

6.5

Pa Modou Sohna Midfielder

6.5

Daniel Cabral

Midfielder77'

6.5

Siim Luts Midfielder

6.45

Pa Abdou Cham

Midfielder79'

6.69

Oskar Hoim (C) Midfielder

6.5

Daniel Luts Midfielder

6.5

Kristofer Piht

Attacker86'

Abdourahman Badamosi Attacker

6.5

Henri Anier

Attacker79'

6.59

Substitutes ▼

Mattias Sapp Goalkeeper

Pedro Andrade Defender

Hindrek Ojamaa Defender

Momodou Jobarteh Midfielder

Aleksandr Surogin Midfielder

Ramon Smirnov Midfielder

Romet Nigula Midfielder

Referee : R. Jitari

Manager ▼

R. Sadıqov Coach

Starting XI ▼

Aydyn Bayramov Goalkeeper

6.12

Amin Seydiyev Defender

6.25

Ruan Renato Defender

6.26

Issa Djibrilla Defender

6.5

Ange Mutsinzi

Defender75'

6.26

Qismat Aliyev (C) Defender

6.26

Eren Aydın Midfielder

6.37

Egor Bogomolskiy

Attacker87'

Martins Júnior Midfielder

Vieirinha Midfielder

6.5

Giorgi Papunashvili

Midfielder75'

6.37

Guima Midfielder

6.5

Ismayil Ibrahimli

Midfielder60'

6.37

Brahim Konaté Midfielder

6.37

Davit Volkovi Attacker

6.46

Substitutes ▼

Hüseynali Quliyev Goalkeeper

Salim Hashimov Goalkeeper

Elchin Alicanov Defender

Aykhan Hüseynov Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF

Pa Abdou Cham

Field Goal / 1st Goal

87'

Egor Bogomolskiy →

10th Substitution

Kristofer Piht →

9th Substitution

86'

Henri Anier →

6th Substitution

79'

Pa Abdou Cham →

7th Substitution

79'

Henrik Ojamaa →

8th Substitution

79'

Daniel Cabral →

5th Substitution

77'

Amin Seydiyev

Foul / 3rd Yellowcard

75'

Ange Mutsinzi →

3rd Substitution

75'

Giorgi Papunashvili →

4th Substitution

Nikita Baranov

Foul / 2nd Yellowcard

62'

60'

Chrismael Digbeu →

1st Substitution

60'

Ismayil Ibrahimli →

2nd Substitution

1ST-HALF

Siim Luts

Foul / 1st Yellowcard

36'

Match Commentary

Update

Yegor Bogomolskiy is on, and Eren Aydin is off.

GOAL! Important

Goal! Pa Abdou Cham scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Henri Anier.

Update

On Kristofer Piht, off Daniel Luts.

Corner

Corner awarded.

Corner

Corner awarded.

Update

Henri Anier replaces Abdouraham Badamosi.

Update

Henrik Ojamaa comes on for Martin Miller.

Substitution

Pa Abdou Cham is substituted on for Siim Luts.

Update

Gustavo Daniel Cabral comes on for Modou Pa Sohna.

Yellow Card Important

Amin Seydiyev receives a yellow card.

Substitution

Giorgi Papunashvili is substituted for Filipe da Silva Tavares Vieira.

Yellow Card Important

Amin Seydiyev receives a yellow card.

Yellow Card Important

Yellow card issued.

Substitution

Substitution: Ismayil Ibrahimli comes on for Ricardo Martins Guimaraes.

Corner

Corner awarded.

Corner

Corner awarded.

Corner

Corner awarded.

Corner

Corner awarded.

Yellow Card Important

Siim Luts receives a yellow card.

Corner

Corner awarded.

Corner

Corner awarded.

Corner

Corner awarded.

Corner

Corner awarded.

Update

Kick-off! The referee is Roman Jitari.

CONCLUSION

Paide's 1-0 victory in the opening leg positions them advantageously ahead of the return fixture despite Zira holding the majority of possession. The outcome reflected an efficiency shift that matched the final scoreline while diverging markedly from pre-match expectations. Absence of expected goals figures limited deeper performance analysis yet the possession disparity failed to yield scoring opportunities for the visitors. No red cards influenced proceedings allowing both sides to maintain full complements throughout. The result stands as a clear instance of market misalignment given the designated stronger team. Paide will aim to protect their aggregate lead in the second leg while Zira must improve conversion rates to overturn the deficit.

STANDINGS

CONTEXT

TL;DR

Quality vs Volume

Open Play vs Set Play

Expected Points

Win Probabilities

Movement

Team Power Ranking

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Paide

Zira

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

PRESSURE INDEX

STARTING XI

General Information

Next Match

Statistics

Top Statistics

Match Overview

Attacking

Discipline

Lineup

Manager ▼

Starting XI ▼

Substitutes ▼

Manager ▼

Starting XI ▼

Substitutes ▼

Events

Match Commentary

CONCLUSION

Paide vs Zira preview

STANDINGS

CONTEXT

TL;DR

Quality vs Volume

Open Play vs Set Play

Expected Points

Win Probabilities

Movement

Team Power Ranking

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Paide

Zira

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

PRESSURE INDEX

STARTING XI

General Information

Next Match

Statistics

Top Statistics

Match Overview

Attacking

Discipline

Lineup

Manager ▼

Starting XI ▼

Substitutes ▼

Manager ▼

Starting XI ▼

Substitutes ▼

Events

Match Commentary

CONCLUSION