Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Pärnu Rannastaadion
Europa Conference League
PaidePAI
3 0
Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen
Full Time
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 4 - 1
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Paide 3–0 Hegelmann Litauen. The result saw Paide take the points. Paide showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Possession split of 53-47 represented minimal structural deviation from balanced expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match team indicators throughout the contest.
  • xG alignment: No xG figures were available to determine alignment with the observed scoreline.
  • Market alignment: The result proved aligned with market expectations given the pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Absence of xG data prevented direct evaluation against pre-match expectations.
  • Event impact: The 3-0 home win produced a decisive impact on the two-legged tie progression.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards issued meant no distortion affected overall match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Trpchevski
S. Trpchevski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Petreski
G. Petreski
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Petkovski
M. Petkovski
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Kjerimi
B. Kjerimi
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Paide T. Kink
T. Kink
VS
Hegelmann Litauen M. Erneta
M. Erneta
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hegelmann Litauen Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paide Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paide
96.9%
Draw
1.9%
Away Hegelmann Litauen
1.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.33
23.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
Power Score
23.33
23.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paide — Opponent-weighted form score
Hegelmann Litauen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paide Hegelmann Litauen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paide

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hegelmann Litauen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paide ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hegelmann Litauen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.51
25.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.74
26.51
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Paide +0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Hegelmann Litauen -0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paide ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hegelmann Litauen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paide Hegelmann Litauen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paide Hegelmann Litauen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Paide
vs
Hegelmann Litauen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paide Hegelmann Litauen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Paide 0.18
Hegelmann Litauen 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paide Hegelmann Litauen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Paide 0.00
Hegelmann Litauen 0.05
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Hegelmann Litauen had peak pressure around 26'.
  • Hegelmann Litauen started the game with stronger pressure.
PAI Pressure Hegelmann Litauen Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Hegelmann Litauen reached the top pressure at 26' (63.49).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paide PAI Home
1 matches
Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:00:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 1
Stadium
Pärnu Rannastaadion
Capacity
1500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Stojanche Trpchevski
Goce Petreski
Martin Petkovski
Benjamin Kjerimi

Statistics

Possession
PAI
53%
Hegelmann Litauen
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
5 Shots 3
61 Dangerous attacks 62
53 Possession 47
3 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

96 Ball Safe 75
9 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 5
23 Throwins 26
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

113 Attacks 95

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Stojanche Trpchevski

Starting XI ▼

99
Ebrima Jarju
Ebrima Jarju Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo Defender
6.5
4
Pedro Andrade Drozina
Pedro Andrade Drozina Defender
6.5
2
Michael Lilander
Michael Lilander
Defender73'
6.5
7
Edgar Tur
Edgar Tur Defender
6.5
27
Nikita Baranov
Nikita Baranov Defender
6.5
10
Martin Miller
Martin Miller Midfielder
6.5
19
Siim Luts
Siim Luts
Midfielder46'
6.5
11
Pa Modou Sohna
Pa Modou Sohna Midfielder
7.06
24
Romet Nigula
Romet Nigula Midfielder
6.45
6
Daniel Cabral
Daniel Cabral
Midfielder46'
6.5
28
Oskar Hoim
Oskar Hoim (C) Midfielder
6.45
77
Daniel Luts
Daniel Luts Midfielder
6.61
20
Kristofer Piht
Kristofer Piht
Attacker62'
6.86
30
Abdourahman Badamosi
Abdourahman Badamosi Attacker
6.86
9
Henri Anier
Henri Anier
Attacker66'
6.5
Referee : Stojanche Trpchevski

Starting XI ▼

31
Rokas Bagdonavičius
Rokas Bagdonavičius Goalkeeper
5.68
7
Carlos Duke
Carlos Duke Defender
6.05
67
Andrius Kaulinis
Andrius Kaulinis
Midfielder46'
6.37
18
Rimvydas Sadauskas
Rimvydas Sadauskas Defender
5.88
26
Domas Slendzoka
Domas Slendzoka Defender
5.86
30
Barry Isaac
Barry Isaac Defender
5.88
37
V. Radonja
V. Radonja Defender
5.86
8
Vilius Armanavičius
Vilius Armanavičius (C) Midfielder
6.18
9
Donatas Kazlauskas
Donatas Kazlauskas
Midfielder72'
6.5
16
Matijus Remeikis
Matijus Remeikis Midfielder
6.27
10
Samuel Oum Gouet
Samuel Oum Gouet
Midfielder46'
6.37
21
Esmilis Kaušinis
Esmilis Kaušinis Midfielder
6.27
45
Artem Shchedryi
Artem Shchedryi
Midfielder64'
6.37
77
Wesley
Wesley Midfielder
6.18
11
Abdel Kader Njoya
Abdel Kader Njoya Attacker
6.43
22
Darrell Kamdem Tibell
Darrell Kamdem Tibell
Attacker46'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Oskar Hoim
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Michael Lilander → Pedro Andrade Drozina
10th Substitution
73'
72'
Event
Donatas Kazlauskas → Vilius Armanavičius
9th Substitution
Event
Kristofer Piht
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
69'
Event
Henri Anier → Abdourahman Badamosi
8th Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Artem Shchedryi → Esmilis Kaušinis
7th Substitution
Event
Kristofer Piht → Daniel Luts
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Daniel Cabral → Romet Nigula
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Siim Luts → Martin Miller
4th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Samuel Oum Gouet → Matijus Remeikis
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Andrius Kaulinis → Carlos Duke
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Darrell Kamdem Tibell → Abdel Kader Njoya
5th Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Romet Nigula
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
44'
Event
Abdourahman Badamosi
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
42'
39'
Event
V. Radonja
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Domas Slendzoka
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Pa Modou Sohna
Field Goal / 1st Goal
17'

Match Commentary

86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
73
Update Update
On comes Michael Lilander, while Pedro Andrade Drozina makes way.
72
Update Update
Donatas Kazlauskas comes on for Vilius Armanavicius.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kristofer Piht scores, making it 3-0.
66
Update Update
Henri Anier replaces Abdouraham Badamosi.
64
Update Update
Artem Shchedry is on, and Esmilis Kausinis is off.
62
Update Update
Kristofer Piht is on, and Daniel Luts is off.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Darrell Tibell Kamdem is on, and Abdel Kader Njoya is off.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Siim Luts comes on for Martin Miller.
46
Update Update
Gustavo Daniel Cabral is on, and Romet Nigula is off.
46
Update Update
Darrell Tibell Kamdem is on, and Abdel Kader Njoya is off.
46
Substitution Substitution
Andrius Kaulinis is substituted off for Carlos Duke.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Abdouraham Badamosi scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Modou Pa Sohna.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Modou Pa Sohna scores to make it 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Stojanche Trpchevski.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Paide 3-0 Hegelmann Litauen. Structural assessment: Paide exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.