Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio El Sadar
La Liga
OsasunaOSA
Atlético MadridATM
KICKOFF :
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Osasuna welcomes Atlético Madrid to Estadio El Sadar in a pivotal La Liga regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. Hosting from 11th place, Osasuna aims to leverage their passionate home support against a formidable Atlético side entrenched in 4th position. Atlético boasts a clear power edge with an 88.44 rating to Osasuna's 77.59, translating to a 10.9-point advantage that underscores their superior overall quality. Recent form tilts slightly towards the visitors, who hold a 13.67 score against Osasuna's 11.11, suggesting momentum in their favor despite the demanding away fixture. El Sadar has long been a fortress for Osasuna, where fervent crowds often unsettle top teams, but Atlético's tactical discipline under their manager could neutralize such threats. Both squads enter without recent outing details, focusing on league consistency amid a tight mid-table battle for Osasuna and top-four security for Atlético. Key battles in midfield and defense will dictate the tempo, with Atlético's experience likely testing Osasuna's resolve early.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Atlético Madrid possesses a 10.9-point power advantage over Osasuna, reflected in their 88.44 rating against 77.59.
  • Form: Atlético Madrid shows stronger recent form at 13.67 compared to Osasuna's 11.11.
  • Squad: Osasuna occupies 11th in La Liga while Atlético Madrid holds 4th place.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data lacks availability, emphasizing reliance on core strengths.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxy data with no xG available for either side.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG variables are not accessible due to add-on limitations.
  • Market: Osasuna 38% (Δ+-0%) | Draw 26.9% (Δ+0.4%) | Atlético Madrid 35.2% (Δ-0.3%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Osasuna A. Lisci
A. Lisci
VS
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.65
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Levante Rank: 74 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 96 L
Sevilla Rank: 72 W
Athletic Club Rank: 77 L
Real Betis Rank: 82 D
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 L
Valencia Rank: 77 W
Athletic Club Rank: 77 W
Elche Rank: 73 L
Sevilla Rank: 74 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 3 - 23
23
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osasuna
37.98%
Draw
26.86%
Away Atlético Madrid
35.16%

Movement

Changes since opening
Osasuna
-0.03%
Draw
+0.36%
Atlético Madrid
-0.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.59
88.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osasuna
Atlético Madrid
Power Score
77.59
88.44
League Position
11
4
Global Rank
82
19

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osasuna — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osasuna Atlético Madrid

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osasuna OSA Home
35 matches
Atlético Madrid ATM Away
Match Record
9
Wins
23
3
Draws
3
23
Losses
9
Goals
32
Goals Scored
56
56
Goals Conceded
32
-24
Goal Difference
+24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:04:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
A. Fernández Abarisketa
Spain
13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
V. Rosier
France
19 V. Rosier
A. Catena Marugán
Spain
24 A. Catena Marugán
F. Boyomos
Cameroon
22 F. Boyomos
J. Galán Gil
Spain
20 J. Galán Gil
J. Moncayola Tollar
Spain
7 J. Moncayola Tollar
L. Torró Marset
Spain
6 L. Torró Marset
R. García Santos
Spain
14 R. García Santos
A. Oroz
Spain
10 A. Oroz
R. Moro Prescoli
Spain
18 R. Moro Prescoli
A. Budimir
Croatia
17 A. Budimir

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio El Sadar
Capacity
23576
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
José Luis Guzmán Mansilla
José Luis Martínez Guerrero
Iván Ríos Vargas
Olatz Rivera Olmedo

Lineup

Referee : José Luis Guzmán Mansilla

Starting XI ▼

13
Aitor Fernández
Aitor Fernández Goalkeeper
6.97
19
Valentin Rosier
Valentin Rosier Defender
6.67
20
Javi Galán
Javi Galán Defender
6.52
22
Enzo Boyomo
Enzo Boyomo Defender
6.71
24
Alejandro Catena
Alejandro Catena Defender
6.89
6
Lucas Torró
Lucas Torró Midfielder
6.73
7
Jon Moncayola
Jon Moncayola Midfielder
6.84
10
Aimar Oroz
Aimar Oroz Midfielder
6.79
14
Rubén García
Rubén García Attacker
6.88
17
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir Attacker
7.02
18
Raúl Moro
Raúl Moro Attacker
6.59
Referee : José Luis Guzmán Mansilla

Starting XI ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
6.86
15
Clément Lenglet
Clément Lenglet Defender
6.77
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Defender
7.04
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand Defender
6.69
34
Julio Díaz
Julio Díaz Defender
6.87
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
Rodrigo Mendoza Midfielder
6.64
11
Thiago Almada
Thiago Almada Midfielder
6.82
14
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Midfielder
6.95
21
Obed Vargas
Obed Vargas Midfielder
6.77
9
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth Attacker
6.79
22
Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman Attacker
6.76

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Atlético Madrid holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Atlético Madrid a 10.9-point edge. External projection is Osasuna 38.7%, draw 27.1%, and Atlético Madrid 34.2%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.