Omonia Nicosia vs Kairat preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Neo GSP (Nicosía (Levkosía)) Wed, 22 Jul - 5:00 PM
Champions League
Full Time Wed, 22 Jul 5:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
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CONTEXT

Omonia Nicosia hosted Kairat in the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie and secured a 1-0 victory. The home side scored the only goal before halftime to lead 1-0 at the break. Despite finishing the match with ten players following a red card, Omonia Nicosia held on for the win. Kairat controlled 64 percent of possession but failed to convert their territorial advantage into goals. The stronger team prevailed in a low-scoring encounter marked by defensive resilience from the hosts. The result leaves the tie finely balanced ahead of the return fixture. The minimal deviation from pre-match indicators was noted in the outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Omonia Nicosia 1-0 Kairat. Omonia Nicosia showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's performance.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded to determine alignment with the scoreline.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals figures were unavailable for both teams.
  • Event impact: The match formed the opening leg of a two-legged knockout tie.
  • Red card distortion: A red card issued to Omonia Nicosia distorted second-half proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Fernandes Correia
G. Fernandes Correia
Referee 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Nogueira Dias
A. Nogueira Dias
1st Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Sousa
A. Sousa
2nd Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Torres Bessa
J. Torres Bessa
4th Official 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Omonia Nicosia H. Berg
H. Berg
VS
Kairat R. Urazbakhtin
R. Urazbakhtin
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sutjeska Rank: W
Sutjeska Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: 99 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Omonia Nicosia
95.64%
Draw
3.72%
Away Kairat
0.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
33.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Omonia Nicosia
Kairat
Power Score
50
33.61
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Omonia Nicosia Opponent-weighted form score
Kairat Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Omonia Nicosia Kairat

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Omonia Nicosia

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Kairat

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Omonia Nicosia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kairat
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.97
26.48
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.48
20.97
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Omonia Nicosia -0.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Kairat +0.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Omonia Nicosia
Kairat
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Omonia Nicosia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kairat
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Omonia Nicosia Kairat
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Omonia Nicosia Kairat
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Omonia Nicosia
Kairat
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Omonia Nicosia
vs
Kairat
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Omonia Nicosia Kairat
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Omonia Nicosia Kairat
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Omonia Nicosia
Kairat
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KAI had peak pressure around 42'.
  • KAI started the game with stronger pressure.
OMO Pressure KAI Pressure
Pressure Index: KAI reached the top pressure at 42' (77.97).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Omonia Nicosia OMO Home
2 matches
Kairat KAI Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-23T00:01:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 22, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Neo GSP (Nicosía (Levkosía))
Capacity
22859
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gustavo Fernandes Correia
André Filipe Nogueira Dias
Andreia Sousa
José Armando Torres Bessa

Statistics

Possession
OMO
38%
KAI
62%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Shots 13
51 Dangerous attacks 99
36 Possession 64
1 Corners 11
11 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
12 Throwins 16

Attacking

80 Attacks 117

Defensive

3 Saves 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Gustavo Fernandes Correia

Starting XI

40
Fabiano
Fabiano (C) Goalkeeper
6.5
5
Senou Coulibaly
Senou Coulibaly Defender
6.5
29
Jure Balkovec
Jure Balkovec Defender
6.5
30
Nikolas Panagiotou
6.5
77
Loïc Nego
Loïc Nego Defender
5.8
7
Jaden Montnor
Jaden Montnor Midfielder
6.5
21
Mihlali Mayambela
Mihlali Mayambela
Midfielder46'
6.5
11
Ewandro Costa
Ewandro Costa Midfielder
6.5
14
Mateo Maric
Mateo Maric Midfielder
6.5
22
Muamer Tankovic
Muamer Tankovic Midfielder
6.5
27
Stefan Simic
Stefan Simic
Defender36'
6.5
74
Panagiotis Andreou
Panagiotis Andreou Midfielder
6.69
31
Ioannis Kousoulos
Ioannis Kousoulos
Midfielder77'
6.5
9
Andronikos Kakoullis
6.46
85
Angelos Neofytou
Angelos Neofytou
Attacker69'
6.5
Referee : Gustavo Fernandes Correia

Starting XI

1
Temirlan Anarbekov
Temirlan Anarbekov Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Luís Mata
Luís Mata Defender
6.26
17
Azamat Tuyakbaev
Azamat Tuyakbaev
Midfielder83'
6.5
14
Aleksandr Martynovich
6.25
20
Erkin Tapalov
Erkin Tapalov Defender
6.26
81
Ismail Bekbolat
Ismail Bekbolat
Attacker58'
6.5
24
Aleksandr Mrynskiy
6.26
44
Lucas Áfrico
Lucas Áfrico Defender
6.26
6
Adilet Sadybekov
Adilet Sadybekov Midfielder
6.37
9
Edmilson
Edmilson
Attacker46'
6.46
7
Jorginho
Jorginho Midfielder
6.33
13
Jaakko Oksanen
Jaakko Oksanen Midfielder
6.37
19
Oiva Jukkola
Oiva Jukkola Midfielder
6.37
5
Lev Kurgin
Lev Kurgin
Defender68'
6.5
28
Marc Gual
Marc Gual Attacker
6.46
22
Gustavo Pinto Mendonça
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
83'
Event
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Azamat Tuyakbaev Luís Mata
9th Substitution
Event
Ioannis Kousoulos  Panagiotis Andreou
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Angelos Neofytou Andronikos Kakoullis
6th Substitution
69'
68'
Event
Lev Kurgin Oiva Jukkola
5th Substitution
58'
Event
Ismail Bekbolat Erkin Tapalov
4th Substitution
Event
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
56'
Event
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
56'
Event
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Mihlali Mayambela Jaden Montnor
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Edmilson Adilet Sadybekov
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Stefan Simic Muamer Tankovic
1st Substitution
36'
Event
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
34'
Event
Field Goal / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Aleksandr Martynovich.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Gustavo Mendonca comes on for Marc Gual.
83
Update Update
Azamat Tuyakbaev is on, and Luis Mata is off.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Substitution Substitution
Ioannis Kousoulos is substituted off for Panagiotis Andreou.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Update Update
Angelos Neofytou is on, and Andronikos Kakoullis is off.
68
Update Update
Angelos Neofytou is on, and Andronikos Kakoullis is off.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Substitution Substitution
Ismail Bekbolat is substituted on for Erkin Tapalov.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Andronikos Kakoullis.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jorginho receives a yellow card.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho.
46
Update Update
Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho is on, and Adilet Sadybekov is off.
46
Update Update
Mihlali Mayambela replaces Jaden Montnor.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Stefan Simic comes on for Muamer Tankovic.
34
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Loic Nego.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Loic Nego receives a yellow card.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Gustavo Correia.

CONCLUSION

Omonia Nicosia claimed a narrow advantage in this opening leg despite the late numerical disadvantage. The single goal scored before the interval proved decisive as both sides struggled to create clear opportunities. Kairat's superior possession did not translate into meaningful threats against a compact home defense. The red card added complexity yet failed to alter the final outcome. With the aggregate score at 1-0, the return fixture offers Kairat an opportunity to overturn the deficit on home soil. Omonia Nicosia will aim to protect their lead through disciplined organization. The result positions the tie for a competitive second leg.