Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
The City Ground Sun, 10 May - 1:00 PM
Premier League
Nottingham ForestNFO
Newcastle UnitedNEW
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 1:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Nottingham Forest host Newcastle United in Premier League (Regular Season) at The City Ground. Domestically, Nottingham Forest sit 16th in the table while Newcastle United are 13th. Power ranking favours Newcastle United by 17.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Newcastle United hold a 17.3-point power advantage over Nottingham Forest with a score of 89.09 versus 71.81.
  • Form: Both teams register a form score of 0 with no last outings recorded.
  • Squad: Nottingham Forest sit 16th in the league table while Newcastle United are 13th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in the available data.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats show low confidence for both teams with no xG available and proxy data used.
  • xVariable: xVariable metrics are unavailable due to lack of xG data.
  • Market: Nottingham Forest 35.3% (Δ-0.2%) | Draw 26.6% (Δ+0.1%) | Newcastle United 38.1% (Δ+0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
VS
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Sunderland Rank: 81 W
Burnley Rank: 78 W
Aston Villa Rank: 91 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 85 W
Fulham Rank: 86 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 W
Arsenal Rank: 97 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 88 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 L
Sunderland Rank: 81 L
Chelsea Rank: 88 W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nottingham Forest
35.31%
Draw
26.56%
Away Newcastle United
38.14%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nottingham Forest
-0.2%
Draw
+0.08%
Newcastle United
+0.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.81
89.09
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle United
Power Score
71.81
89.09
League Position
16
13
Global Rank
20
15

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nottingham Forest Newcastle United

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-5-1
Pitch
M. Sels
Belgium
26 M. Sels
N. Milenković
Serbia
31 N. Milenković
J. da Cunha Filho
Brazil
23 J. da Cunha Filho
F. Rodrigues
Brazil
4 F. Rodrigues
L. Netz
Germany
25 L. Netz
R. Yates
England
22 R. Yates
N. Domínguez
Argentina
16 N. Domínguez
D. Bakwa
France
29 D. Bakwa
I. da Cruz
Brazil
19 I. da Cruz
J. Mcatee
England
24 J. Mcatee
T. Awoniyi
Nigeria
9 T. Awoniyi
N. Pope
England
1 N. Pope
D. Burn
England
33 D. Burn
S. Botman
Netherlands
4 S. Botman
M. Thiaw
Germany
12 M. Thiaw
J. Ramsey
England
41 J. Ramsey
S. Tonali
Italy
8 S. Tonali
J. Willock
England
28 J. Willock
B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
Brazil
39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
J. Apolinário de Lira
Brazil
7 J. Apolinário de Lira
W. Osula
Denmark
18 W. Osula
J. Murphy
England
23 J. Murphy

General Information

Date & Time
May 10, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium
The City Ground
Capacity
30445
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Paul Tierney
Mark Scholes
Richard West
Ruebyn Ricardo

Lineup

Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

26
Matz Sels
Matz Sels Goalkeeper
6.79
4
Morato
Morato Defender
6.75
23
Jair Cunha
Jair Cunha Defender
6.61
25
Luca Netz
Luca Netz Defender
6.64
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Defender
6.74
16
Nicolás Domínguez
Nicolás Domínguez Midfielder
6.77
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Midfielder
6.79
22
Ryan Yates
Ryan Yates Midfielder
6.64
9
Taiwo Awoniyi
Taiwo Awoniyi Attacker
6.81
24
James McAtee
James McAtee Attacker
6.46
29
Dilane Bakwa
Dilane Bakwa Attacker
6.69
Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

1
Nick Pope
Nick Pope Goalkeeper
6.81
4
Sven Botman
Sven Botman Defender
6.95
12
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw Defender
6.98
33
Dan Burn
Dan Burn Defender
6.7
41
Jacob Ramsey
Jacob Ramsey Defender
6.65
8
Sandro Tonali
Sandro Tonali Midfielder
6.95
28
Joe Willock
Joe Willock Midfielder
6.65
39
Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães Midfielder
7.31
7
Joelinton
Joelinton Attacker
6.82
18
William Osula
William Osula Attacker
6.69
23
Jacob Murphy
Jacob Murphy Attacker
6.78

CONCLUSION

Newcastle United arrive as the stronger outfit, wielding a notable power edge that positions them to control proceedings at The City Ground. Nottingham Forest's home turf offers resilience, but their lower rating and mid-table slot suggest vulnerability against Newcastle's quality. With form neutral and key advanced stats like set pieces and efficiency obscured by data gaps, the duel hinges on execution and squad application. Expect Newcastle to edge possession and chances, though Forest could counter via intensity. A narrow away win feels likely, tightening the table race further.