Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United preview

England flag 2026/2027 Premier League, England
The City Ground
Premier League
Nottingham ForestNFO
0 1
Leeds UnitedLEE
Full Time
Round 1 Regular Season
|
Goal
Anton Stach - 88'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds United. The result saw Leeds United take the points. Leeds United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Nottingham Forest 0.9 – 0.8 Leeds United. Possession was 55%–45%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds United. Leeds United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall team performances across both halves.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment revealed Nottingham Forest held the higher expected goals total yet failed to win.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the final result matching pre match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations pointed to a narrow home advantage that did not materialize on the scoreboard.
  • Event impact: Event impact stayed minimal with no major incidents disrupting the flow of play.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role as both teams finished with a full complement of players.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Jones
R. Jones
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
N. Greenhalgh
N. Greenhalgh
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Nelson
A. Nelson
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Ward
G. Ward
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Nottingham Forest O. Glasner
O. Glasner
VS
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 91 D
Manchester United Rank: 91 L
Newcastle United Rank: 89 D
Chelsea Rank: 88 W
Sunderland Rank: 83 W
Burnley Rank: 77 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Ham United Rank: 83 L
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 86 D
Burnley Rank: 77 W
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 91 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 80 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
87.2
88.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nottingham Forest
Leeds United
Power Score
87.2
88.69
League Position
16
6
Global Rank
27
18

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nottingham Forest Leeds United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nottingham Forest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Leeds United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nottingham Forest ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leeds United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.45
28.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.00
26.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nottingham Forest -0.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Leeds United +0.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nottingham Forest
Leeds United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nottingham Forest
vs
Leeds United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nottingham Forest Leeds United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
81%
57%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.71 vs -0.43
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nottingham Forest Leeds United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
57%
81%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.43 vs -0.71
Nottingham Forest
Leeds United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nottingham Forest
vs
Leeds United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nottingham Forest Leeds United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nottingham Forest 0.24
Leeds United 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nottingham Forest Leeds United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nottingham Forest 0.03
Leeds United 0.00
Nottingham Forest
Leeds United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NFO had peak pressure around 72'.
  • LEE started the game with stronger pressure.
NFO Pressure LEE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NFO reached the top pressure at 72' (66.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nottingham Forest NFO Home
2 matches
Leeds United LEE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-23T00:05:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Premier League, England · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
The City Ground
Capacity
30445
Attendance
30739
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Robert Jones
Nick Greenhalgh
Alistair Nelson
Gavin Ward

Statistics

Possession
NFO
53%
LEE
47%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
8 Shots 2
51 Dangerous attacks 32
55 Possession 45
3 Corners 2
18 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

64 Ball Safe 57
6 Goal Kicks 10
2 Goal Attempts 3
4 Substitutions 2
25 Throwins 12
2 Hit Woodwork 0
29 Successful Headers 24
1 Injuries 0
19 Dribble Attempts 12
8 Successful Dribbles 7
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58

Attacking

83 Attacks 112

Possession

71 Long Passes 58
392 Passes 325
307 Successful Passes 231
78 Successful Passes Percentage 71
9 Key Passes 5
29 Successful Long Passes 24
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

2 Saves 3
9 Tackles 19
2 Interceptions 15
59 Duels Won 65

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 8
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Robert Jones

Starting XI ▼

26
Matz Sels
Matz Sels Goalkeeper
6.44
5
Murillo
Murillo Defender
7.09
15
Arnaud Kalimuendo
Arnaud Kalimuendo
Attacker90+3'
23
Jair Cunha
Jair Cunha Defender
6.69
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Defender
6.5
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Midfielder
6.9
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré Midfielder
7.01
24
James McAtee
James McAtee Midfielder
7.11
21
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager
Midfielder74'
6.58
34
Ola Aina
Ola Aina Midfielder
6.89
25
Luca Netz
Luca Netz
Defender74'
6.13
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White (C) Attacker
6.74
11
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Attacker
7.07
14
Dan Ndoye
Dan Ndoye Attacker
6.49
9
Chris Wood
Chris Wood
Attacker62'
6.52
Referee : Robert Jones

Starting XI ▼

1
James Trafford
James Trafford Goalkeeper
7.18
5
Tarik Muharemović
Tarik Muharemović Defender
6.96
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Defender
7.01
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
7.45
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Midfielder
6.55
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu (C) Midfielder
6.92
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach Midfielder
7.78
24
James Justin
James Justin Midfielder
7.21
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Attacker
6.59
10
Harry Wilson
Harry Wilson Attacker
6.87
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor
Attacker66'
6.84
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson Attacker
6.91
8
Sean Longstaff
Sean Longstaff
Midfielder82'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Arnaud Kalimuendo → Murillo
6th Substitution
90+3'
88'
Event
Anton Stach
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
82'
Event
Sean Longstaff → Brenden Aaronson
5th Substitution
Event
Luca Netz → Ola Aina 
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Xaver Schlager → James McAtee
4th Substitution
74'
66'
Event
Noah Okafor → Harry Wilson
2nd Substitution
Event
Chris Wood  → Dan Ndoye
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Jair Cunha 
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
52'
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
25'
Event
Harry Wilson
Offside / Goal Disallowed
Event
Ola Aina 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
18'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Arnaud Kalimuendo comes on for Murillo Santiago Costa dos Santos.
90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 0-1.
88
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Gibbs-White takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Anton Stach takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Anton Stach scores to make it 1-0.
84
Attempt Attempt
Dominic Calvert-Lewin takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Update Update
Offside.
74
Update Update
On comes Xaver Schlager, off goes James Mcatee.
74
Update Update
Luca Netz comes on for Ola Aina.
74
Update Update
On for Xaver Schlager, off goes James Mcatee.
73
Update Update
Luca Netz comes on for Ola Aina.
72
Attempt Attempt
Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz attempts a header, but the shot is blocked.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Attempt Attempt
Tarik Muharemovic takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
64
Update Update
Noah Okafor comes on for Harry Wilson.
63
Attempt Attempt
Chris Wood takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Gibbs-White takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Ola Aina's right-footed shot is blocked.
59
Update Update
Offside.
56
Attempt Attempt
Dominic Calvert-Lewin takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz attempts a header but misses the shot.
53
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jair Paula da Cunha Filho.
52
Attempt Attempt
Dominic Calvert-Lewin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
50
Update Update
Offside.
47
Attempt Attempt
Brenden Aaronson takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jaka Bijol takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Jair Paula da Cunha Filho takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
36
Attempt Attempt
Ola Aina's left-footed shot is blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Milenkovic takes a shot with his head but misses.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dominic Calvert-Lewin receives a yellow card.
29
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Gibbs-White takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Gibbs-White takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
20
Update Update
Jaka Bijol takes a header, but it's blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Joe Rodon Head Shot Blocked
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Update Update
Offside.
10
Update Update
Offside.
10
Update Update
Offside.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Leeds United demonstrated resilience in overcoming a slight expected goals deficit to claim a valuable away victory. The 0-1 scoreline reflected clinical finishing in the second period after a balanced opening half. Nottingham Forest will reflect on missed opportunities despite their possession advantage and higher xG figure. The absence of red cards allowed both teams to maintain tactical structures throughout the ninety minutes. This result underscores the fine margins that define outcomes when underlying metrics are closely matched. Leeds United capitalized on their opportunities while the home side struggled to convert territorial control into goals.