Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United preview

England flag 2026/2027 Premier League, England
The City Ground Sat, 22 Aug - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Nottingham ForestNFO
Leeds UnitedLEE
KICKOFF : Sat, 22 Aug - 2:00 PM
Round 1 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Nottingham Forest welcomes Leeds United to The City Ground for a Premier League regular season encounter in 2026/2027. The visitors hold a marginal power edge at 88.74 compared to the hosts at 88.22, making Leeds United the slightly stronger side overall. Both clubs sit in mid-table domestically with Nottingham Forest in fifteenth and Leeds United in sixteenth. Limited recent form data leaves the picture open ahead of kickoff. Power metrics suggest a tightly contested affair where small margins could decide the outcome. The home side will look to leverage familiar surroundings while the away team aims to exploit its narrow advantage in overall strength.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Leeds United holds a 0.5 power advantage over Nottingham Forest in this matchup.
  • Form: Both teams enter with zero form scores and no recent outing data available.
  • Squad: Leeds United is identified as the stronger squad based on power metrics.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for either Nottingham Forest or Leeds United.
  • Transition: Transition details are not provided in the current dataset for this fixture.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis shows low confidence with proxy data used for both teams.
  • xVariable: Power scores indicate a close contest with Leeds United slightly ahead.
  • Market: Nottingham Forest 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Leeds United 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nottingham Forest O. Glasner
O. Glasner
VS
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 92 D
Manchester United Rank: 92 L
Newcastle United Rank: 90 D
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Sunderland Rank: 84 W
Burnley Rank: 78 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Ham United Rank: 84 L
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 87 D
Burnley Rank: 78 W
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 92 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 80 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.22
88.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nottingham Forest
Leeds United
Power Score
88.22
88.74
League Position
15
16
Global Rank
21
20

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nottingham Forest Leeds United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nottingham Forest NFO Home
2 matches
Leeds United LEE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-17T00:25:24+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 22, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Premier League, England · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
The City Ground
Capacity
30445
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

26
Matz Sels
Matz Sels Goalkeeper
6.8
34
Ola Aina
Ola Aina Midfielder
6.81
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Midfielder
6.93
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Attacker
6.81
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Attacker
6.79
21
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager Central Midfield
6.69
2
Ousmane Diomande
Ousmane Diomande Right Back
6.89
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré Central Midfield
6.84
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White Attacking Midfield
7.04
5
Murillo
Murillo Centre Back
6.95
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Left Back
6.74

Starting XI ▼

1
James Trafford
James Trafford Goalkeeper
6.72
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Midfielder
6.62
17
Harry Wilson
Harry Wilson Midfielder
7.11
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach Midfielder
7.24
24
James Justin
James Justin Midfielder
6.93
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Centre Forward
6.92
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Central Midfield
6.99
5
Tarik Muharemović
Tarik Muharemović Left Back
6.35
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Centre Back
6.75
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Right Back
6.91
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Central Midfield
6.81

CONCLUSION

This Premier League clash at The City Ground pits two mid-table sides against each other in what promises to be a balanced encounter. Nottingham Forest will seek to use home advantage to offset the visitors narrow power lead. Leeds United arrives as the marginally stronger outfit and will target a positive result on the road. With form records absent the emphasis falls on current positioning and overall team strength. Both sides occupy similar domestic standings which adds intrigue to the tactical battle ahead. Expect a match defined by fine details rather than dominance from either team.