Norway vs France preview

2026 World Cup, World
Boston Stadium Fri, 26 Jun - 7:00 PM
World Cup
NorwayNOR
1 4
FranceFRA
Full Time Fri, 26 Jun 7:00 PM
Round 3 Group Stage
Goal
|
Goal
Ousmane Dembélé - 7', 20', 32'
Désiré Doué - 90+4'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Norway 1–4 France. The result saw France take the points. France showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Norway 1.6 – 1.2 France. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Norway 1-4 France. France showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Oliver
M. Oliver
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
S. Burt
S. Burt
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Mainwaring
J. Mainwaring
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
N. Ma
N. Ma
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Norway S. Solbakken
S. Solbakken
VS
France Guy Stéphan
Guy Stéphan
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Senegal Rank: W
Iraq Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Iraq Rank: W
Senegal Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Norway
14.04%
Draw
18.12%
Away France
67.84%

Movement

Changes since opening
Norway
+13.84%
Draw
+16.2%
France
-30.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.44
29.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Norway
France
Power Score
24.44
29.63
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
31
1

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Norway — Opponent-weighted form score
France — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Norway France

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Norway

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

France

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Norway ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy France
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.79
37.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.19
27.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Norway -0.84 Efficiency Index
vs
France +0.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Norway
France
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Norway
vs
France
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Norway France
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
68%
5%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.07 vs -0.06
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Norway France
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
5%
68%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.06 vs -1.07
Norway
France
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Norway
vs
France
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Norway France
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Norway 0.26
France 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Norway France
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Norway 0.06
France 0.03
Norway
France
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NOR had peak pressure around 60'.
  • FRA started the game with stronger pressure.
NOR Pressure FRA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NOR reached the top pressure at 60' (84.46).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 26, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 3 · Group Stage
Stadium
Boston Stadium
Capacity
66829
Attendance
64146
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Michael Oliver
Stuart Burt
James Mainwaring
Ning Ma

Statistics

Possession
NOR
44%
FRA
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
4 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 6
39 Dangerous attacks 64
43 Possession 57
4 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

66 Ball Safe 59
1 Penalties 0
8 Goal Kicks 5
8 Goal Attempts 15
5 Substitutions 5
23 Throwins 12
0 Hit Woodwork 1
7 Successful Headers 13
1 Assists 4
1 Injuries 0
14 Dribble Attempts 17
7 Successful Dribbles 7
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41

Attacking

89 Attacks 103
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

41 Long Passes 52
420 Passes 557
344 Successful Passes 480
82 Successful Passes Percentage 86
7 Key Passes 16
18 Successful Long Passes 28
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54

Defensive

5 Saves 3
17 Tackles 18
13 Interceptions 11
42 Duels Won 45

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

13
Egil Selvik
Egil Selvik Goalkeeper
6.79
4
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård Defender
5.87
14
Fredrik Aursnes
Fredrik Aursnes Defender
6.89
15
Fredrik Bjørkan
Fredrik Bjørkan Defender
6.23
16
Marcus Pedersen
Marcus Pedersen
Defender46'
6.36
25
Henrik Falchener
Henrik Falchener Defender
5.83
24
Sondre Langås
Sondre Langås
Defender66'
6.19
6
Patrick Berg
Patrick Berg (C) Midfielder
6.41
18
Kristian Thorstvedt
Kristian Thorstvedt Midfielder
6.45
2
Morten Thorsby
Morten Thorsby
Midfielder46'
6.39
19
Thelo Aasgaard
Thelo Aasgaard Midfielder
7.15
11
Jørgen Strand Larsen
Jørgen Strand Larsen Attacker
5.85
21
Andreas Schjelderup
Andreas Schjelderup Attacker
6.95
23
Jens Petter Hauge
Jens Petter Hauge
Midfielder83'
6.28
22
Oscar Bobb
Oscar Bobb Attacker
7.14
20
Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa
Midfielder83'
6.48
Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
7.09
4
Dayot Upamecano
Dayot Upamecano Defender
6.97
15
Ibrahima Konaté
Ibrahima Konaté
Defender76'
6.71
5
Jules Koundé
Jules Koundé Defender
6.69
2
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto
Defender87'
19
Theo Hernández
Theo Hernández Defender
6.6
26
Maxence Lacroix
Maxence Lacroix Defender
6.47
6
Manu Koné
Manu Koné Midfielder
6.61
7
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Midfielder
3
9.4
12
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola
Attacker65'
7.22
8
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielder
8.07
11
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Midfielder
6.59
24
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki
Midfielder65'
6.59
20
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué Midfielder
7.82
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé (C) Attacker
8.03
22
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Attacker87'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Désiré Doué
Header / 5th Goal
87'
Event
Malo Gusto → Jules Koundé
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Jean-Philippe Mateta → Kylian Mbappé
10th Substitution
Event
Jens Petter Hauge → Andreas Schjelderup
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Antonio Nusa → Oscar Bobb 
8th Substitution
83'
76'
Event
Ibrahima Konaté → Dayot Upamecano
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Sondre Langås → Henrik Falchener
5th Substitution
66'
65'
Event
Bradley Barcola → Ousmane Dembélé
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Rayan Cherki → Michael Olise
4th Substitution
Event
Jørgen Strand Larsen
GoalkeeperSave
50'
Event
Marcus Pedersen → Fredrik Bjørkan
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Morten Thorsby → Kristian Thorstvedt
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Ousmane Dembélé
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Thelo Aasgaard
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
21'
20'
Event
Ousmane Dembélé
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Patrick Berg
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'
7'
Event
Ousmane Dembélé
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Thelo Aasgaard from Norway is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Rayan Cherki commits a foul for France.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! France leads 4-1 after Désiré Doué scores with a header from the center of the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Théo Hernández (France) takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
90
Update Update
Fredrik Aursnes commits a handball for Norway.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
88
Update Update
Jørgen Strand Larsen is flagged for offside for Norway.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Jean-Philippe Mateta comes on for Kylian Mbappé.
87
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Fredrik Aursnes (Norway) shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it's too high.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Malo Gusto comes on for Jules Koundé.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Jens Petter Hauge comes on for Oscar Bobb.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Antonio Nusa comes on for Andreas Schjelderup.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norway after Jules Koundé concedes.
82
Update Update
Oscar Bobb from Norway wins a free kick on the right wing.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Bradley Barcola of France.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to France after a concession by Egil Selvik.
79
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Patrick Berg's right-footed shot from outside the box for Norway is blocked. He was assisted by Jørgen Strand Larsen.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Ibrahima Konaté comes on for Dayot Upamecano.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Aurélien Tchouaméni of France.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aurélien Tchouaméni of France receives a yellow card for a foul.
74
Update Update
Thelo Aasgaard from Norway is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Oscar Bobb's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Mike Maignan in the center of the goal. Thelo Aasgaard provided the assist.
72
Corner Corner
Norway is awarded a corner after Jules Koundé concedes.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
68
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Morten Thorsby of Norway.
67
Update Update
Manu Koné wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Sondre Langås comes on for Henrik Falchener.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Bradley Barcola comes on for Ousmane Dembélé.
65
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Thelo Aasgaard concedes.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Rayan Cherki comes on for Michael Olise.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Oscar Bobb from Norway has his left-footed shot from the right side of the box saved in the center of the goal by Mike Maignan from France. The attempt was assisted by Jørgen Strand Larsen.
64
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappé's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Michael Olise.
63
Update Update
Jørgen Strand Larsen wins a free kick for Norway in the defensive half.
63
Update Update
Maxence Lacroix commits a foul for France.
62
Update Update
Théo Hernández from France is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
62
Update Update
Oscar Bobb from Norway commits a foul.
61
Update Update
Maxence Lacroix is caught offside for France.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Leo Østigård of Norway.
61
Update Update
Désiré Doué of France is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
58
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
56
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Egil Selvik from Norway.
56
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappé from France misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it just a bit too high. He was assisted by Désiré Doué.
55
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Leo Østigård (Norway) heads the ball from the left side of the six-yard box but it goes to the right. He was assisted by Patrick Berg, who delivered a cross after a corner.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norway after Dayot Upamecano concedes.
50
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Jørgen Strand Larsen's right-footed shot for Norway is saved.
48
Update Update
Théo Hernández of France concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
48
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Norway as Oscar Bobb is fouled in the penalty area.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Norway 1, France 3.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Marcus Pedersen comes on for Fredrik Bjørkan.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Morten Thorsby comes on for Kristian Thorstvedt.
45
Update Update
Andreas Schjelderup commits a foul for Norway.
45
Update Update
Michael Olise from France wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Michael Olise from France with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Aurélien Tchouaméni of France.
45
Update Update
Thelo Aasgaard from Norway is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
43
Corner Corner
Norway is awarded a corner after Jules Koundé concedes.
40
Update Update
Jules Koundé commits a handball for France.
36
Update Update
Dayot Upamecano commits a foul for France.
36
Update Update
Andreas Schjelderup wins a free kick for Norway in the attacking half.
35
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Aurélien Tchouaméni from France takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! France leads 3-1 against Norway. Ousmane Dembélé scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Kristian Thorstvedt of Norway.
28
Update Update
Théo Hernández wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
27
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
24
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
24
Attempt Attempt
Théo Hernández from France misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box, sending the ball too high. Aurélien Tchouaméni provided the assist.
23
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Kylian Mbappé provided the assist.
23
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Désiré Doué's right-footed shot from outside the box for France is blocked.
23
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Fredrik Aursnes concedes.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to France after Leo Østigård concedes.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Norway 1, France 2. Thelo Aasgaard scores for Norway with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! France leads 2-0 after Ousmane Dembélé scores with a left-footed shot from outside the box following a fast break.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! France leads 2-0 after Ousmane Dembélé scores with a left-footed shot from outside the box following a fast break.
17
Corner Corner
Kylian Mbappé's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Egil Selvik. The attempt was assisted by Désiré Doué with a through ball.
16
Update Update
Ousmane Dembélé is caught offside for France.
14
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Jørgen Strand Larsen from Norway, who took a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
13
Attempt Attempt
Michael Olise's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Kylian Mbappé provided the assist.
13
Update Update
Kristian Thorstvedt wins a free kick for Norway on the right wing.
13
Update Update
Aurélien Tchouaméni commits a foul for France.
12
Update Update
Jørgen Strand Larsen wins a free kick for Norway on the right wing.
12
Update Update
Maxence Lacroix commits a foul for France.
11
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Kristian Thorstvedt from Norway has his left-footed shot from outside the box saved.
10
Update Update
Patrick Berg commits a foul for Norway.
10
Update Update
Michael Olise of France wins a free kick in the defensive half.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Patrick Berg from Norway receives a yellow card for a foul.
9
Update Update
Théo Hernández commits a foul for France.
9
Update Update
Oscar Bobb from Norway is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
8
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Désiré Doué's right-footed shot from outside the box for France is saved in the bottom right corner by Egil Selvik of Norway. The shot was assisted by Manu Koné.
8
Update Update
Foul committed by Kristian Thorstvedt of Norway.
8
Update Update
Théo Hernández from France is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! France takes the lead 1-0 against Norway with Ousmane Dembélé scoring from the right side of the box with a right-footed shot.
6
Update Update
Andreas Schjelderup commits a foul for Norway.
6
Update Update
Jules Koundé wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
5
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Désiré Doué's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Egil Selvik. The assist came from Théo Hernández.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ousmane Dembele scores to make it 1-0.
4
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappe takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Michael Oliver.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Norway 1-4 France. Structural assessment: France exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.