Nõmme Kalju vs Linfield preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Pärnu Rannastaadion Thu, 9 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Nõmme Kalju Nõmme Kalju
1 0
Linfield Linfield
Full Time Thu, 9 Jul 4:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Roko Vukušić - 47'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Nõmme Kalju faced Linfield in the first leg of their two-legged tie. The home side secured a 1-0 win with the only goal arriving after the interval. Both teams were level at 0-0 when the first half concluded. Nõmme Kalju held 55 percent possession while Linfield managed 45 percent. No red cards were shown to either side throughout the ninety minutes. Pre-match indicators had identified Nõmme Kalju as the stronger team and the result confirmed that assessment. The outcome featured a significant deviation of 59.7 percent from projected patterns with the home team responsible for the variance. The match remained competitive until the decisive moment in the second half.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nõmme Kalju produced a 59.7 percent significant deviation from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with pre-match indicators throughout the fixture.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals figures were not recorded for this encounter.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved consistent with available market alignment metrics.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals data was supplied to evaluate performance against projections.
  • Event impact: The single second-half goal determined the 1-0 outcome after a scoreless first half.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued so no distortion from dismissals occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Simarro
A. Simarro
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Serra
J. Serra
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Pinilla Acosta
L. Pinilla Acosta
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Chiaramonti
A. Chiaramonti
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Nõmme Kalju N. Andreev
N. Andreev
VS
Linfield D. Healy
D. Healy
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nõmme Kalju
40.33%
Draw
28.76%
Away Linfield
30.91%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nõmme Kalju
-54.48%
Draw
+24.2%
Linfield
+30.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nõmme Kalju
Linfield
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nõmme Kalju — Opponent-weighted form score
Linfield — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nõmme Kalju Linfield

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nõmme Kalju

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Linfield

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nõmme Kalju ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Linfield
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.91
37.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.11
18.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nõmme Kalju — Efficiency Index
vs
Linfield — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nõmme Kalju
Linfield
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nõmme Kalju ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Linfield
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nõmme Kalju Linfield
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nõmme Kalju Linfield
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nõmme Kalju
Linfield
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nõmme Kalju
vs
Linfield
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nõmme Kalju Linfield
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nõmme Kalju 0.17
Linfield 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nõmme Kalju Linfield
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nõmme Kalju 0.00
Linfield 0.02
Nõmme Kalju
Linfield
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Linfield had peak pressure around 36'.
  • Nõmme Kalju started the game with stronger pressure.
Nõmme Kalju Pressure Linfield Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Linfield reached the top pressure at 36' (73.12).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nõmme Kalju Nõmme Kalju Home
0 matches
Linfield Linfield Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:53:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
H. Perk
Estonia
1 (C) H. Perk
D. Mashchenko
Substitution
Ukraine
78 D. Mashchenko
M. Podholjuzin
Estonia
50 M. Podholjuzin
R. Vukušić
Croatia
46 R. Vukušić
A. Nikolajev
Estonia
22 A. Nikolajev
R. Siht
Estonia
26 R. Siht
M. Tambedou
Senegal
20 M. Tambedou
O. Musolitin
Substitution
Ukraine
8 O. Musolitin
B. Vaštšuk
Estonia
59 B. Vaštšuk
E. Lottar Eyang
Equatorial Guinea
17 E. Lottar Eyang
T. Azevedo Baptista
Substitution
Portugal
21 T. Azevedo Baptista
C. Johns
Northern Ireland
1 C. Johns
D. Leahy
Republic of Ireland
33 D. Leahy
R. Patrick Nolan
Republic of Ireland
4 R. Patrick Nolan
B. Hall
Northern Ireland
15 B. Hall
E. McGee
Substitution
Northern Ireland
27 E. McGee
I. Baird
Substitution
Northern Ireland
26 I. Baird
C. Shields
Republic of Ireland
5 (C) C. Shields
K. McClean
Northern Ireland
8 K. McClean
A. Frizzell
Substitution
Scotland
10 A. Frizzell
M. Fitzpatrick
Northern Ireland
29 M. Fitzpatrick
K. Millar
Substitution
Northern Ireland
7 K. Millar

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 09, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Pärnu Rannastaadion
Capacity
1500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andreu Vilanova Simarro
Juan Serra
Luis Miguel Pinilla Acosta
Antoine Paul Chiaramonti

Statistics

Possession
Nõmme Kalju
51%
Linfield
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
5 Shots 6
48 Dangerous attacks 74
55 Possession 45
2 Corners 12
13 Free kicks 17
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

93 Ball Safe 60
8 Goal Attempts 11
3 Substitutions 4
15 Throwins 17
1 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

122 Attacks 99

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Andreu Vilanova Simarro

Starting XI ▼

1
Henri Perk
Henri Perk (C) Goalkeeper
6.5
20
Modou Tambedou
Modou Tambedou Defender
6.5
22
Aleksandr Nikolajev
Aleksandr Nikolajev Defender
6.5
46
Roko Vukušić
Roko Vukušić Defender
6.69
50
Maksim Podholjuzin
Maksim Podholjuzin Defender
6.5
78
Danyl Mashchenko
Danyl Mashchenko Defender
6.5
88
Daniil Sotsugov
Daniil Sotsugov
Defender84'
6.5
8
Oleksandr Musolitin
Oleksandr Musolitin Midfielder
6.61
11
Mihhail Orlov
Mihhail Orlov
Attacker68'
6.5
17
Enrique Esono
Enrique Esono Midfielder
6.5
21
Tiago Baptista
Tiago Baptista Midfielder
6.5
30
Ibrahim Jabir
Ibrahim Jabir
Attacker84'
6.5
26
Rommi Siht
Rommi Siht Midfielder
6.5
59
Bogdan Vastsuk
Bogdan Vastsuk Midfielder
6.5
Referee : Andreu Vilanova Simarro

Starting XI ▼

1
Chris Johns
Chris Johns Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Ryan Nolan
Ryan Nolan Defender
6.25
15
Ben Hall
Ben Hall Defender
6.26
27
Ethan McGee
Ethan McGee Defender
6.26
24
Sean Brown
Sean Brown
Defender90+2'
33
Darragh Leahy
Darragh Leahy Defender
6.25
5
Chris Shields
Chris Shields (C) Midfielder
6.33
7
Kirk Millar
Kirk Millar Midfielder
6.37
16
Dylan Wells
Dylan Wells
Attacker62'
6.5
8
Kyle McClean
Kyle McClean Midfielder
6.37
10
Adam Frizzell
Adam Frizzell Midfielder
6.37
9
Kieran Offord
Kieran Offord
Attacker71'
6.5
26
Isaac Baird
Isaac Baird Midfielder
6.37
34
Dane McCullough
Dane McCullough
Defender71'
6.5
29
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Matthew Fitzpatrick Attacker
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Sean Brown → Ethan McGee
7th Substitution
Event
Ibrahim Jabir → Tiago Baptista
5th Substitution
84'
Event
Daniil Sotsugov → Danyl Mashchenko
6th Substitution
84'
81'
Event
Chris Shields
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
71'
Event
Dane McCullough → Isaac Baird
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Kieran Offord → Adam Frizzell
4th Substitution
Event
Mihhail Orlov → Oleksandr Musolitin
2nd Substitution
68'
62'
Event
Dylan Wells → Kirk Millar
1st Substitution
Event
Roko Vukušić
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
47'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Sean Brown comes on for Ethan McGee.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Update Update
On comes Daniil Sotsugov, off goes Danyl Mashchenko.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Chris Shields receives a yellow card.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Substitution Substitution
Kieran Offord is substituted for Adam Frizzell.
71
Substitution Substitution
Dane McCullough is substituted for Isaac Baird.
68
Update Update
Mihhail Orlov comes on for Oleksandr Musolitin.
62
Update Update
Dylan Wells is on, and Kirk Millar is off.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has taken place!

CONCLUSION

Nõmme Kalju claimed a narrow advantage in the opening leg through a solitary second-half strike. Possession statistics reflected a modest edge for the home side that aligned with their status as the stronger team. The absence of any dismissals allowed both sides to maintain full complements for the entire contest. Halftime arrived with the score still level at 0-0 before the decisive moment shifted momentum. The significant structural deviation observed in the data highlighted an above-projection performance from Nõmme Kalju. Efficiency metrics stayed consistent with expectations and no expected goals values were available to provide further comparison. The result leaves the tie finely balanced ahead of the return fixture.