Noah vs Zimbru preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Armenia Football Academy grass Thu, 30 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
NoahNOAH
2 1
ZimbruZIM
Full Time Thu, 30 Jul 4:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 2
Goal
|
Goal
Jonathas - 76'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Noah 2–1 Zimbru. The result saw Noah take the points. Noah showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 59%–41%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Noah 2-1 Zimbru. Noah showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Tozan
M. Tozan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Kasapović
A. Kasapović
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Žunič
M. Žunič
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Antič
M. Antič
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Noah S. Perković
S. Perković
VS
Zimbru O. Poklonskyi
O. Poklonskyi
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zimbru Rank: D
AZ Rank: 79 L
AZ Rank: 79 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Noah Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Noah
96.05%
Draw
3.31%
Away Zimbru
0.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
Noah
+1.24%
Draw
-1.25%
Zimbru
+0.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.04
23.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Noah
Zimbru
Power Score
27.04
23.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Noah — Opponent-weighted form score
Zimbru — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Noah Zimbru

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Noah

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zimbru

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Noah ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zimbru
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.54
20.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.00
32.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Noah +1.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Zimbru -1.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Noah
Zimbru
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Noah ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zimbru
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Noah Zimbru
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Noah Zimbru
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Noah
Zimbru
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Noah
vs
Zimbru
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Noah Zimbru
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Noah 0.10
Zimbru 0.08
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Noah Zimbru
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Noah 0.02
Zimbru 0.02
Noah
Zimbru
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NOAH had peak pressure around 53'.
  • NOAH started the game with stronger pressure.
NOAH Pressure ZIM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NOAH reached the top pressure at 53' (69.82).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Noah NOAH Home
1 matches
Zimbru ZIM Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:01:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 2
Stadium
Armenia Football Academy grass
Capacity
3946
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mateo Tozan
Aleksandar Kasapović
Matej Žunič
M. Antič

Statistics

Possession
NOAH
58%
ZIM
42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
8 Shots 2
124 Dangerous attacks 64
59 Possession 41
7 Corners 2
17 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

102 Ball Safe 114
9 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 4
30 Throwins 19

Attacking

132 Attacks 89

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
7 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Tozan

Starting XI ▼

99
Dani Figueira
Dani Figueira Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Stone Mambo
Stone Mambo Defender
6.26
19
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan (C) Defender
6.5
6
Eric Boakye
Eric Boakye
Defender66'
6.26
33
David Sualehe
David Sualehe Defender
6.26
39
Nathanaël Saintini
Nathanaël Saintini Defender
6.26
7
Hélder Ferreira
Hélder Ferreira Midfielder
6.37
98
Brian Oddei
Brian Oddei
Midfielder90+3'
10
Gor Manvelyan
Gor Manvelyan Midfielder
6.57
20
Valentin Costache
Valentin Costache
Midfielder76'
6.5
14
Takuto Oshima
Takuto Oshima Midfielder
6.45
23
Aram Khamoyan
Aram Khamoyan
Midfielder66'
6.37
17
Gustavo Sangaré
Gustavo Sangaré Midfielder
6.57
44
Marin Jakolis
Marin Jakolis Midfielder
6.48
9
Mario González
Mario González Attacker
6.55
8
Marko Lazetić
Marko Lazetić
Attacker77'
6.5
Referee : Mateo Tozan

Starting XI ▼

12
Artem Odyntsov
Artem Odyntsov Goalkeeper
5.88
3
Kevin Berkeley
Kevin Berkeley Defender
6.05
11
Jonathas
Jonathas
Midfielder63'
6.69
4
Cristian Gonta
Cristian Gonta Defender
6.05
18
Alexandru Gutium
Alexandru Gutium Defender
6.04
23
Marcello
Marcello Defender
6.05
35
Nikolay Zolotov
Nikolay Zolotov Defender
6.05
7
Caio Dantas
Caio Dantas Midfielder
6.27
20
Vlad Raileanu
Vlad Raileanu
Midfielder84'
6.5
8
Matteo Amoroso
Matteo Amoroso Midfielder
6.23
24
Thiago Ceijas
Thiago Ceijas (C) Midfielder
6.23
17
Tudor Butucel
Tudor Butucel
Midfielder62'
6.5
73
Stefan Bitca
Stefan Bitca Midfielder
6.38
98
Victor Stina
Victor Stina Midfielder
6.27
14
Rayvien Rosario
Rayvien Rosario
Attacker52'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Brian Oddei → Hélder Ferreira
9th Substitution
90+3'
84'
Event
Vlad Raileanu → Caio Dantas
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Alexandru Gutium
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Marko Lazetić → Mario González
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Valentin Costache → Gor Manvelyan
6th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Jonathas
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
Eric Boakye → Hovhannes Hambardzumyan 
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Aram Khamoyan → Takuto Oshima
5th Substitution
66'
63'
Event
Jonathas → Kevin Berkeley
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Tudor Butucel → Thiago Ceijas
2nd Substitution
55'
Event
Thiago Ceijas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Rayvien Rosario → Victor Stina
1st Substitution
51'
Event
Matteo Amoroso
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Gustavo Sangaré
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
Event
Gor Manvelyan
Field Goal / 1st Goal
31'
Event
Takuto Oshima
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Brian Oddei is on, and Helder Ferreira is off.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Update Update
Vlad Raileanu comes on for Caio Dantas.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Alex Gutium.
77
Update Update
On comes Marko Lazetic, off goes Mario Gonzalez Gutier.
76
Update Update
Valentin Ionut Costache comes on for Gor Manvelyan.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Substitution Substitution
Aram Khamoyan is substituted for Takuto Oshima.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Eric Boakye comes on for Hovhannes Hambardzumyan.
63
Update Update
Jonathas Abimael da Silva Conceição comes on for Kevin Berkeley.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Update Update
Tudor Butucel is on, and Thiago Dylan Ceijas is off.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Thiago Dylan Ceijas.
52
Update Update
On Rayvien Rosario, off Victor Stina.
51
Update Update
Rayvien Rosario comes on for Victor Stina.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matteo Amoroso receives a yellow card.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gustavo Sangare scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Mario Gonzalez Gutier.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gor Manvelyan scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Marin Jakolis.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to David Sualehe.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Mateo Tozan.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Noah 2-1 Zimbru. Structural assessment: Noah exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.