New Zealand vs Belgium preview

2026 World Cup, World
Vancouver Stadium Sat, 27 Jun - 3:00 AM
World Cup
Full Time Sat, 27 Jun 3:00 AM
Round 3 Group Stage

CONTEXT

New Zealand hosted Belgium in an international fixture that concluded with a 1-5 scoreline. Belgium led 0-1 at halftime after establishing early control. The visitors dominated proceedings with 55 percent possession against New Zealand's 45 percent. Expected goals heavily favored Belgium at 4.27 compared to New Zealand's 0.37, producing a differential of minus 3.9. No red cards were issued to either side throughout the contest. Belgium, the stronger side on paper, secured the victory in line with pre-match expectations. The minimal deviation of 2.6 percent confirmed alignment between observed outcome and underlying metrics.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The 2.6 percent deviation registered as minimal for the stronger side.
  • Efficiency shift: Overall efficiency remained in line with underlying performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: The final result proved fully consistent with the expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: Observed outcome matched pre-match projections without notable variance.
  • xG expectations: Belgium posted 4.27 expected goals while New Zealand managed only 0.37.
  • Event impact: Belgium converted their dominance into a five-goal margin after the 0-1 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown, leaving match dynamics undistorted by dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Makhadmeh
A. Makhadmeh
Referee 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Al Kalaf
M. Al Kalaf
1st Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Al Roalle
A. Al Roalle
2nd Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Ortega
K. Ortega
4th Official 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
New Zealand D. Bazeley
D. Bazeley
VS
Belgium R. Garcia
R. Garcia
0.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Egypt Rank: L
Iran Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Iran Rank: D
Egypt Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home New Zealand
0.28%
Draw
2.37%
Away Belgium
97.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
11.85
25.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
New Zealand
Belgium
Power Score
11.85
25.19
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
85
9

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
New Zealand Opponent-weighted form score
Belgium Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) New Zealand Belgium

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

New Zealand

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Belgium

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

New Zealand ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Belgium
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.89
69.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
69.91
16.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
New Zealand -4.76 Efficiency Index
vs
Belgium +4.76 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
New Zealand
Belgium
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

New Zealand
vs
Belgium
Created Set-piece attacking threat
New Zealand Belgium
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
38%
31%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.14 vs -1.32
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
New Zealand Belgium
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
31%
38%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-1.32 vs -0.14
New Zealand
Belgium
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

New Zealand
vs
Belgium
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
New Zealand Belgium
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
New Zealand Belgium
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
New Zealand
Belgium
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BEL had peak pressure around 49'.
  • BEL started the game with stronger pressure.
NZL Pressure BEL Pressure
Pressure Index: BEL reached the top pressure at 49' (91.14).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 27, 2026, 03:00 AM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 3 · Group Stage
Stadium
Vancouver Stadium
Capacity
54500
Attendance
52497
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh
Mohammad Mustafa Hassan Al Kalaf
Ahmad Moannes Nadi Al Roalle
Kevin Ortega

Statistics

Possession
NZL
44%
BEL
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 5
0 Big Chances Created 4
3 Shots 13
32 Dangerous attacks 69
45 Possession 55
5 Corners 8
7 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

58 Ball Safe 49
10 Goal Kicks 3
4 Goal Attempts 21
5 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 15
0 Hit Woodwork 1
6 Successful Headers 8
0 Assists 3
0 Injuries 1
12 Dribble Attempts 11
8 Successful Dribbles 7
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64

Attacking

74 Attacks 111
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

38 Long Passes 47
435 Passes 526
369 Successful Passes 463
85 Successful Passes Percentage 88
3 Key Passes 28
16 Successful Long Passes 29
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 62

Defensive

5 Saves 1
10 Tackles 13
6 Interceptions 10
30 Duels Won 38

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 16
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh

Starting XI

1
Max Crocombe
Max Crocombe Goalkeeper
6.56
2
Tim Payne
Tim Payne Defender
6.42
5
Michael Boxall
Michael Boxall
Defender64'
5.84
4
Tyler Bindon
Tyler Bindon Defender
6.07
13
Liberato Cacace
Liberato Cacace Defender
6.72
3
Francis de Vries
Francis de Vries
Defender79'
6.12
16
Finn Surman
Finn Surman Defender
5.59
6
Joe Bell
Joe Bell Midfielder
6.26
20
Callum McCowatt
Callum McCowatt
Midfielder64'
5.96
8
Marko Stamenić
Marko Stamenić Midfielder
6.5
10
Sarpreet Singh
Sarpreet Singh Midfielder
6.61
21
Jesse Randall
Jesse Randall
Attacker46'
6.61
11
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Midfielder
6.86
23
Ryan Thomas
Ryan Thomas Midfielder
6.48
19
Ben Old
Ben Old
Attacker46'
6.58
9
Chris Wood
Chris Wood (C) Attacker
6.54
Referee : Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh

Starting XI

1
Thibaut Courtois
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper
6.91
3
Arthur Theate
Arthur Theate Defender
7.15
4
Brandon Mechele
Brandon Mechele Defender
6.86
5
Maxim De Cuyper
Maxim De Cuyper Defender
7.53
21
Timothy Castagne
Timothy Castagne Defender
7.04
7
Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne Midfielder
8.23
24
Amadou Onana
Amadou Onana
Midfielder72'
6.49
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans (C) Midfielder
6.83
23
Nicolas Raskin
Nicolas Raskin
Midfielder85'
7.08
10
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard Midfielder
2
9.44
22
Alexis Saelemaekers
7.42
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Midfielder
7.1
26
Matías Fernández-Pardo
6.77
20
Hans Vanaken
Hans Vanaken Midfielder
7.88
17
Charles De Ketelaere
7.01
9
Romelu Lukaku
Romelu Lukaku
Attacker85'
7.83

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
86'
Event
Header / 5th Goal
85'
Event
Romelu Lukaku Charles De Ketelaere
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Nicolas Raskin Youri Tielemans
10th Substitution
Event
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
84'
Event
Francis de Vries Liberato Cacace
8th Substitution
79'
72'
Event
Amadou Onana Kevin De Bruyne 
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Alexis Saelemaekers Leandro Trossard
7th Substitution
66'
Event
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Michael Boxall  Tim Payne
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Callum McCowatt Joe Bell
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
56'
56'
Event
Matías Fernández-Pardo Jérémy Doku
3rd Substitution
50'
Event
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ben Old Ryan Thomas
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Jesse Randall Sarpreet Singh
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
21'
Event
Penalty disallowed

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium leads 5-1 against New Zealand. Alexis Saelemaekers scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Theate from Belgium misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the left. Matias Fernandez-Pardo provided the assist with a cross.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Maxim De Cuyper's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the top center of the goal. Hans Vanaken provided the assist.
90
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Max Crocombe concedes.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Amadou Onana from Belgium misses a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it to the left. He was assisted by Hans Vanaken after a set piece situation.
90
Update Update
Callum McCowatt from New Zealand commits a foul.
90
Update Update
Alexis Saelemaekers of Belgium is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium leads 4-1 with Romelu Lukaku scoring a header from very close range.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Romelu Lukaku comes on for Charles De Ketelaere.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Nicolas Raskin comes on for Youri Tielemans.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! New Zealand 1, Belgium 3. Elijah Just scores for New Zealand with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
83
Corner Corner
New Zealand is awarded a corner after Youri Tielemans concedes it.
82
Update Update
Chris Wood from New Zealand wins a free kick in the defensive half.
82
Update Update
Brandon Mechele commits a foul for Belgium.
80
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Alexis Saelemaekers from Belgium has a right-footed shot from the right side of the box that goes too high. Matias Fernandez-Pardo provided the assist.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for New Zealand: Francis de Vries comes on for Liberato Cacace.
78
Attempt Attempt
Maxim De Cuyper (Belgium) misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box following a direct free kick.
77
Update Update
Marko Stamenic from New Zealand commits a foul.
77
Update Update
Alexis Saelemaekers from Belgium is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
76
Attempt Attempt
Elijah Just's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Chris Wood provided the assist for New Zealand.
76
Corner Corner
New Zealand is awarded a corner after Maxim De Cuyper concedes it.
76
Corner Corner
Tyler Bindon from New Zealand misses an attempt with a header from the right side of the six-yard box, sending it too high. He was assisted by Jesse Randall, who provided a cross after a corner.
74
Attempt Attempt
Matias Fernandez-Pardo's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Charles De Ketelaere.
74
Attempt Attempt
Amadou Onana's left-footed shot from outside the box for Belgium is blocked.
74
Update Update
Maxim De Cuyper commits a handball for Belgium.
73
Update Update
Belgium is called offside as Alexis Saelemaekers is caught in an offside position.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Alexis Saelemaekers comes on for Leandro Trossard.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Amadou Onana comes on for Kevin De Bruyne.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Michael Boxall of New Zealand.
72
Update Update
Charles De Ketelaere from Belgium is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
69
Update Update
Callum McCowatt from New Zealand commits a foul.
69
Update Update
Youri Tielemans from Belgium is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
69
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
66
Attempt Attempt
Kevin De Bruyne's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Matias Fernandez-Pardo provided the assist.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium leads 3-0 against New Zealand. Kevin De Bruyne scores with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
65
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Belgium takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box after a quick counterattack.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for New Zealand: Michael Boxall comes on for Tim Payne.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for New Zealand: Callum McCowatt comes on for Joe Bell.
64
Corner Corner
New Zealand wins a corner after Brandon Mechele concedes.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Arthur Theate's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Max Crocombe in the center of the goal.
62
Attempt Attempt
Kevin De Bruyne's right-footed shot from outside the box for Belgium is blocked.
62
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Marko Stamenic concedes.
61
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner, conceded by Ben Old.
61
Attempt Attempt
Kevin De Bruyne's right-footed shot from outside the box for Belgium is blocked.
60
Corner Corner
Arthur Theate from Belgium misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the right. The attempt was assisted by Maxim De Cuyper, who provided a cross after a corner.
60
Update Update
Jesse Randall from New Zealand is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
60
Update Update
Brandon Mechele commits a foul for Belgium.
60
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Finn Surman concedes.
59
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Jesse Randall from New Zealand takes a left-footed shot from outside the box after a corner.
58
Corner Corner
New Zealand wins a corner after Timothy Castagne concedes.
57
Update Update
Liberato Cacace from New Zealand wins a free kick in the defensive half.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium).
56
Update Update
Elijah Just from New Zealand commits a foul.
56
Update Update
Leandro Trossard from Belgium wins a free kick on the right wing.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Elijah Just from New Zealand receives a yellow card for a foul.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Matias Fernandez-Pardo comes on for Jérémy Doku.
55
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Elijah Just's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Tim Payne's right-footed shot from the right side of the box for New Zealand is blocked.
54
Update Update
Tim Payne from New Zealand wins a free kick in the defensive half.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium).
50
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Kevin De Bruyne.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium leads 2-0 after Leandro Trossard scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
47
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium) takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
46
Update Update
Marko Stamenic commits a foul for New Zealand.
46
Update Update
Youri Tielemans from Belgium is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marko Stamenic of New Zealand receives a yellow card for a foul.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for New Zealand: Jesse Randall comes on for Sarpreet Singh.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at New Zealand 0, Belgium 1.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for New Zealand: Ben Old comes on for Ryan Thomas.
45
Update Update
Finn Surman from New Zealand is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Leandro Trossard is caught offside for Belgium.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Thomas of New Zealand.
45
Update Update
Youri Tielemans from Belgium is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Attempt Attempt
Hans Vanaken's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Leandro Trossard.
45
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Sarpreet Singh concedes.
45
Corner Corner
Arthur Theate from Belgium misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the right. The attempt was assisted by Kevin De Bruyne, who delivered a cross after a corner.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's right-footed shot from outside the box for Belgium is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Charles De Ketelaere's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Sarpreet Singh from New Zealand takes a left-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it goes high and wide to the right. Ryan Thomas provided the assist.
42
Attempt Attempt
Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium) misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
39
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Jérémy Doku (Belgium) shoots with his right foot from the left side of the box, but it goes high and wide to the right. He was assisted by Maxim De Cuyper.
34
Update Update
Ryan Thomas from New Zealand is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
34
Update Update
Youri Tielemans commits a foul for Belgium.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Finn Surman of New Zealand.
33
Update Update
Jérémy Doku wins a free kick for Belgium in the defensive half.
31
Attempt Attempt
Hans Vanaken's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Maxim De Cuyper.
30
Corner Corner
New Zealand wins a corner after Hans Vanaken concedes.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium takes the lead 1-0 against New Zealand as Leandro Trossard scores with a right-footed shot from very close range after a corner.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyler Bindon of New Zealand.
27
Update Update
Hans Vanaken wins a free kick for Belgium on the right wing.
27
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Marko Stamenic concedes.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
24
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Chris Wood of New Zealand.
23
Update Update
Hans Vanaken wins a free kick for Belgium in the defensive half.
21
Update Update
VAR is checking a penalty for Belgium.
19
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Kevin De Bruyne.
17
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Jérémy Doku.
16
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Jérémy Doku.
16
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Brandon Mechele of Belgium.
13
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
13
Update Update
Brandon Mechele of Belgium misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the left. Kevin De Bruyne provided the assist with a cross.
12
Attempt Attempt
Kevin De Bruyne's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Charles De Ketelaere's right-footed shot from the center of the box for Belgium is blocked. He was assisted by Maxim De Cuyper's cross.
11
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard from Belgium hits the right post with a left-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box, assisted by Hans Vanaken.
10
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Tim Payne concedes.
5
Update Update
Offside.
4
Attempt Attempt
Youri Tielemans takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Adham Mohammad.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: New Zealand 1-5 Belgium. Structural assessment: Belgium exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.