New York RB vs Orlando City preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
Sports Illustrated Stadium Sat, 1 Aug - 11:30 PM
Major League Soccer
New York RBNYR
3 2
Orlando CityORL
Full Time Sat, 1 Aug 11:30 PM
Regular Season
Mijahir Jiménez - 23', 60'
Emil Forsberg  - 43'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

New York RB secured a 3-2 victory over Orlando City despite the away side being designated as the stronger team prior to the match. The halftime score was 2-0 to the home side. Orlando City dominated possession with 60 percent while New York RB had 40 percent. Expected goals favored New York RB at 3.5 against 2.7 for Orlando City resulting in a differential of 0.8. The final result aligned with these xG values confirming the winner. No red cards were shown in the game. This outcome highlighted a significant deviation by New York RB from the expected structural norms based on team strength assessments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: New York RB 3-2 Orlando City. New York RB showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency metrics remained in line with the overall performance levels for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The match outcome was consistent with the xG values of 3.5 for New York RB and 2.7 for Orlando City.
  • Market alignment: The result showed alignment with pre-match projections without notable discrepancies.
  • xG expectations: New York RB exceeded basic xG expectations by converting opportunities into a 3-2 win.
  • Event impact: Absence of major events allowed the game to follow its projected course based on team data.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so there was no distortion from dismissals in the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Dujic
F. Dujic
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
K. Nesbitt
K. Nesbitt
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Mitchell Carvalho
O. Mitchell Carvalho
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Luce Lauziere
P. Luce Lauziere
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
New York RB M. Bradley
M. Bradley
VS
Orlando City M. Perelman
M. Perelman
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Charlotte Rank: 64 L
Philadelphia Union Rank: 61 L
Sporting KC Rank: 56 W
New York City Rank: 71 D
Columbus Crew Rank: 69 W
Chicago Fire Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nashville SC Rank: 73 W
SJ Earthquakes Rank: 66 W
Cincinnati Rank: 70 L
Atlanta United Rank: 58 D
Philadelphia Union Rank: 67 W
CF Montréal Rank: 60 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.96
68.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
New York RB
Orlando City
Power Score
62.96
68.79
League Position
9
10
Global Rank
556
367

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
New York RB — Opponent-weighted form score
Orlando City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) New York RB Orlando City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

New York RB

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Orlando City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

New York RB ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orlando City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.88
7.84
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
7.84
11.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
New York RB +0.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Orlando City -0.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
New York RB
Orlando City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

New York RB
vs
Orlando City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
New York RB Orlando City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
5%
15%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.16 vs -0.41
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
New York RB Orlando City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
15%
5%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.41 vs -0.16
New York RB
Orlando City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
New York RB
vs
Orlando City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
New York RB Orlando City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
New York RB 0.46
Orlando City 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
New York RB Orlando City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
New York RB 0.00
Orlando City 0.08
New York RB
Orlando City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NYR had peak pressure around 44'.
  • NYR started the game with stronger pressure.
NYR Pressure ORL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NYR reached the top pressure at 44' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

New York RB NYR Home
6 matches
Orlando City ORL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
3
Goals
7
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
7
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-02T00:04:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
E. Horvath
United States
34 E. Horvath
D. Nealis
Substitution
United States
12 D. Nealis
J. Che
United States
2 J. Che
J. Bazán Medina
Colombia
14 J. Bazán Medina
M. Dos Santos
Substitution
56 M. Dos Santos
R. Donkor
Mali
48 R. Donkor
G. Berggren
Sweden
4 G. Berggren
E. Forsberg
Substitution
Sweden
10 (C) E. Forsberg
C. Cowell
Substitution
United States
7 C. Cowell
M. Jiménez Murillo
Substitution
91 M. Jiménez Murillo
J. Hall
United States
16 J. Hall

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 01, 2026, 11:30 PM
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Capacity
25000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Filip Dujic
Katie Nesbitt
Oscar Mitchell Carvalho
Pierre Luce Lauziere

Statistics

Possession
NYR
42%
ORL
58%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 6
31 Dangerous attacks 55
40 Possession 60
5 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

57 Ball Safe 61
5 Goal Kicks 5
10 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
12 Throwins 16
0 Hit Woodwork 3
4 Successful Headers 1
1 Injuries 0
18 Dribble Attempts 13
9 Successful Dribbles 5
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38

Attacking

69 Attacks 109
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

29 Long Passes 40
398 Passes 596
331 Successful Passes 531
83 Successful Passes Percentage 89
16 Key Passes 14
15 Successful Long Passes 23
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58

Defensive

3 Saves 5
12 Tackles 17
13 Interceptions 15
35 Duels Won 38

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 11
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Filip Dujic

Starting XI ▼

34
Ethan Horvath
Ethan Horvath Goalkeeper
6.62
2
Justin Che
Justin Che Defender
6.57
12
Dylan Nealis
Dylan Nealis Defender
6.72
26
Tim Parker
Tim Parker
Defender75'
14
Julián Bazán
Julián Bazán Defender
6.95
56
Matthew Dos Santos
Matthew Dos Santos Defender
6.55
3
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
Defender75'
4
Gustav Berggren
Gustav Berggren Midfielder
6.47
10
Emil Forsberg
Emil Forsberg (C) Midfielder
6.57
39
Nehuén Benedetti
Nehuén Benedetti
Midfielder85'
48
Ronald Donkor
Ronald Donkor Midfielder
6.94
7
Cade Cowell
Cade Cowell Attacker
6.78
17
Cameron Harper
Cameron Harper
Attacker85'
16
Julian Hall
Julian Hall Attacker
6.79
91
Mijahir Jiménez
Mijahir Jiménez Attacker
2
6.44
37
Mohammed Sofo
Mohammed Sofo
Attacker70'
Referee : Filip Dujic

Starting XI ▼

71
Maxime Crépeau
Maxime Crépeau Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Adrián Marín
Adrián Marín Defender
6.35
44
Bernardo Goncalves
Bernardo Goncalves
Attacker46'
4
David Brekalo
David Brekalo Defender
6.77
6
Robin Jansson
Robin Jansson (C) Defender
6.51
24
Griffin Dorsey
Griffin Dorsey Defender
6.41
19
Zakaria Taifi
Zakaria Taifi
Midfielder72'
8
Braian Ojeda
Braian Ojeda Midfielder
6.87
11
Tiago
Tiago Midfielder
6.65
14
Tyrese Spicer
Tyrese Spicer
Attacker46'
20
Eduard Atuesta
Eduard Atuesta Midfielder
6.54
5
Luis Otávio
Luis Otávio
Midfielder62'
77
Iván Angulo
Iván Angulo Midfielder
6.49
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
6.43
22
Justin Ellis
Justin Ellis Attacker
6.71
23
Harvey Sarajian
Harvey Sarajian
Attacker87'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
88'
Event
Harvey Sarajian
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Harvey Sarajian → Justin Ellis
10th Substitution
Event
Nehuén Benedetti → Emil Forsberg 
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Cameron Harper → Cade Cowell
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Tim Parker → Dylan Nealis
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty → Matthew Dos Santos
7th Substitution
75'
72'
Event
Zakaria Taifi → Griffin Dorsey
5th Substitution
Event
Mohammed Sofo  → Mijahir Jiménez
4th Substitution
70'
69'
Event
Iván Angulo
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Griffin Dorsey
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
62'
Event
Luis Otávio → Eduard Atuesta
3rd Substitution
Event
Mijahir Jiménez
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
60'
Event
Justin Che
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
52'
Event
Tyrese Spicer
Header / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Bernardo Goncalves → Adrián Marín
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Tyrese Spicer → Tiago
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Emil Forsberg 
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
43'
Event
Dylan Nealis
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
Event
Mijahir Jiménez
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
23'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
90
Attempt Attempt
Julian Hall takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luis Otavio takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tyrese Spicer takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gustaf Beggren takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Harvey Sarajian.
87
Update Update
Harvey Sarajian comes on for Justin Ellis.
86
Attempt Attempt
Tyrese Spicer takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
85
Update Update
Benedetti Nehuen comes on for Emil Forsberg.
85
Update Update
Cameron Harper comes on for Cade Cowell.
83
Attempt Attempt
Iván Angulo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Attempt Attempt
Tyrese Spicer takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Attempt Attempt
Gustaf Beggren takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Zakaria Taifi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
On Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty, off Matthew Dos Santos.
75
Update Update
Tim Parker is on, and Dylan Nealis is off.
72
Update Update
Zakaria Taifi replaces Griffin Dorsey.
71
Update Update
Zakaria Taifi comes on for Griffin Dorsey.
71
Attempt Attempt
Griffin Dorsey takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Mohammed Sofo comes on for Mijahir Jiménez.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
68
Attempt Attempt
Mijahir Jiménez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Tyrese Spicer takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Griffin Dorsey takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-2.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-2.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Mijahir Jiménez takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-1.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
58
Attempt Attempt
Julian Hall takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Mijahir Jiménez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Tyrese Spicer Head Shot Goal
52
Attempt Attempt
Braian Oscar Ojeda Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Attempt Attempt
Gustaf Beggren takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Tyrese Spicer is on, and Tiago is off.
45
Update Update
Offside.
45
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
45
Attempt Attempt
Griffin Dorsey takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Griezmann takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Emil Forsberg takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Emil Forsberg scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Cade Cowell.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Attempt Attempt
Cade Cowell takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Julian Hall takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Attempt Attempt
Emil Forsberg's right-footed shot is blocked.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dylan Nealis receives a yellow card.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Mijahir Jiménez scores with a left-footed shot.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Attempt Attempt
Julian Hall takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Justin Che takes a left-footed shot but misses.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Attempt Attempt
Gustaf Beggren takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
13
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Eduard Andres Atuesta Velasco with his right foot hits the post.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Update Update
Offside.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
2
Attempt Attempt
Cade Cowell's left-footed shot is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Filip Dujic.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: New York RB 3-2 Orlando City. Structural assessment: New York RB exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.