New York City vs Toronto preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
Yankee Stadium Fri, 31 Jul - 11:30 PM
Major League Soccer
New York CityNYC
1 – 1
TorontoTOR
Full Time Fri, 31 Jul 11:30 PM
Regular Season
Nicolás Fernández Mercau - 8' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Djordje Mihailovic - 45+6'

CONTEXT

New York City hosted Toronto in a match that concluded with a 1-1 scoreline. Both teams entered halftime level at 1-1. New York City recorded 2.28 expected goals while Toronto managed 0.96. Possession stood at 49 percent for the home side and 51 percent for the visitors. No red cards were shown to either team. The stronger side New York City failed to secure a victory despite creating the majority of scoring opportunities. The final result represented a draw that diverged from underlying performance metrics. Significant structural deviation occurred for New York City in this encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: New York City exhibited significant deviation from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: The 1-1 outcome proved inconsistent with the xG differential.
  • Market alignment: The draw result aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: New York City posted 2.28 xG against Toronto's 0.96 xG.
  • Event impact: The match produced a 1-1 draw without notable second-half adjustments.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued resulting in no game distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Touchan
R. Touchan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
L. Arfa
L. Arfa
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Marshall
B. Marshall
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Luce Lauziere
P. Luce Lauziere
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
New York City P. Jansen
P. Jansen
VS
Toronto R. Fraser
R. Fraser
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.94
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chicago Fire Rank: 66 W
Columbus Crew Rank: 65 W
Nashville SC Rank: 74 L
New York RB Rank: 63 D
Charlotte Rank: 68 W
Columbus Crew Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
DC United Rank: 55 L
New England Rank: 60 D
CF Montréal Rank: 57 D
Chicago Fire Rank: 68 L
Charlotte Rank: 68 L
Inter Miami Rank: 79 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.8
60.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
New York City
Toronto
Power Score
70.8
60.34
League Position
5
12
Global Rank
296
623

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
New York City — Opponent-weighted form score
Toronto — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) New York City Toronto

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

New York City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Toronto

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

New York City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Toronto
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
4.89
4.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
4.18
4.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
New York City +0.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Toronto -0.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
New York City
Toronto
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

New York City
vs
Toronto
Created Set-piece attacking threat
New York City Toronto
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
68%
12%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.55 vs -0.12
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
New York City Toronto
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
12%
68%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.12 vs -0.55
New York City
Toronto
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
New York City
vs
Toronto
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
New York City Toronto
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
New York City 0.50
Toronto 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
New York City Toronto
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
New York City 0.00
Toronto 0.25
New York City
Toronto
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NYC had peak pressure around 67'.
  • NYC started the game with stronger pressure.
NYC Pressure TOR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NYC reached the top pressure at 67' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

New York City NYC Home
4 matches
Toronto TOR Away
Match Record
4
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
4
Goals
9
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
9
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-01T00:03:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Matthew
United States
49 F. Matthew
T. Gray
United States
24 T. Gray
T. Martins Bueno
Substitution
Brazil
13 (C) T. Martins Bueno
J. Sands
United States
6 J. Sands
N. Cavallo
2 N. Cavallo
J. Shore
United States
32 J. Shore
A. Ojeda
Substitution
Argentina
26 A. Ojeda
N. Fernández Mercau
Substitution
Argentina
7 N. Fernández Mercau
A. Perea Castañeda
Colombia
8 A. Perea Castañeda
B. Traore
Substitution
Ivory Coast
9 B. Traore
T. Bacelar Martins
Substitution
Brazil
11 T. Bacelar Martins
L. Gavran
Canada
1 L. Gavran
R. Laryea
Canada
22 R. Laryea
J. Gilman
United States
38 J. Gilman
W. Zimmerman
United States
25 W. Zimmerman
K. Franklin
Canada
19 K. Franklin
N. Dorsch
Substitution
Germany
6 N. Dorsch
J. Osorio
Canada
21 (C) J. Osorio
D. Salloi
Hungary
20 D. Salloi
D. Mihailovic
Substitution
United States
10 D. Mihailovic
T. Corbeanu
Substitution
Canada
7 T. Corbeanu
J. Sargent
Substitution
United States
9 J. Sargent

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 31, 2026, 11:30 PM
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
Yankee Stadium
Capacity
47309
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ramy Touchan
Lyes Arfa
Brian Marshall
Pierre Luce Lauziere

Statistics

Possession
NYC
48%
TOR
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 5
29 Dangerous attacks 49
49 Possession 51
3 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
10 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 4
17 Throwins 25
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Successful Headers 4
14 Dribble Attempts 12
6 Successful Dribbles 6
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

66 Attacks 112
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

42 Long Passes 60
358 Passes 370
297 Successful Passes 292
83 Successful Passes Percentage 79
9 Key Passes 8
14 Successful Long Passes 30
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

4 Saves 4
16 Tackles 15
13 Interceptions 7
50 Duels Won 47

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 16
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Ramy Touchan

Starting XI ▼

49
Matt Freese
Matt Freese Goalkeeper
6.68
2
Nico Cavallo
Nico Cavallo Defender
6.66
6
James Sands
James Sands Defender
6.62
13
Thiago Martins
Thiago Martins (C) Defender
6.49
35
Mitja Ilenčič
Mitja Ilenčič
Defender86'
24
Tayvon Gray
Tayvon Gray Defender
6.49
7
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
Nicolás Fernández Mercau Midfielder
7.03
99
Seymour Reid
Seymour Reid
Attacker86'
8
Andrés Perea
Andrés Perea Midfielder
6.24
9
Bénie Traoré
Bénie Traoré Midfielder
6.47
88
Malachi Jones
Malachi Jones
Attacker59'
26
Agustín Ojeda
Agustín Ojeda Midfielder
7
17
Hannes Wolf
Hannes Wolf
Attacker59'
32
Jonathan Shore
Jonathan Shore Midfielder
6.52
11
Talles Magno
Talles Magno Attacker
6.2
29
Máximo Carrizo
Máximo Carrizo
Midfielder72'
Referee : Ramy Touchan

Starting XI ▼

1
Luka Gavran
Luka Gavran Goalkeeper
6.41
19
Kobe Franklin
Kobe Franklin Defender
6.37
22
Richie Laryea
Richie Laryea Defender
5.63
25
Walker Zimmerman
Walker Zimmerman Defender
6.32
38
Jackson Gilman
Jackson Gilman Defender
6.27
6
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch Midfielder
6.55
14
Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello
Midfielder71'
7
Theo Corbeanu
Theo Corbeanu Midfielder
6.21
78
Malik Henry
Malik Henry
Midfielder87'
10
Djordje Mihailovic
Djordje Mihailovic Midfielder
6.55
11
Derrick Etienne Jr.
Derrick Etienne Jr.
Attacker72'
20
Dániel Sallói
Dániel Sallói Midfielder
6.6
21
Jonathan Osorio
Jonathan Osorio (C) Midfielder
6.51
9
Josh Sargent
Josh Sargent Attacker
6.47
29
Deandre Kerr
Deandre Kerr
Attacker71'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Malik Henry → Theo Corbeanu 
9th Substitution
Event
Mitja Ilenčič → Thiago Martins
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Seymour Reid → Nicolás Fernández Mercau
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Máximo Carrizo → Talles Magno
5th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Derrick Etienne Jr. → Djordje Mihailovic
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Alonso Coello → Niklas Dorsch
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Deandre Kerr  → Josh Sargent 
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Jackson Gilman
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Malachi Jones → Bénie Traoré
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Hannes Wolf → Agustín Ojeda
2nd Substitution
59'
56'
Event
Niklas Dorsch
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+6'
Event
Djordje Mihailovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45+6'
Event
Jonathan Osorio
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
18'
Event
Talles Magno
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
11'
Event
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
8'
6'
Event
Richie Laryea
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

89
Update Update
Offside.
88
Update Update
Offside.
87
Attempt Attempt
Alonso Coello takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Mitja Ilenic comes on for Thiago Martins Bueno.
86
Update Update
Seymour Garfield Reid is on, and Nicolas Ezequiel Fernandez Mercau is off.
84
Attempt Attempt
Richmond Laryea takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Andres Perea takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Richmond Laryea takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
80
Attempt Attempt
Andres Perea's right-footed shot is blocked.
73
Update Update
Offside.
72
Update Update
Derrick Etienne comes on for Djordje Mihailovic.
72
Update Update
Deandre Kerr replaces Joshua Sargent.
71
Update Update
Alonso Coello replaces Niklas Dorsch.
71
Update Update
Maximo Carrizo replaces Talles Magno.
69
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Ezequiel Fernandez Mercau takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Salloi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jackson Gilman.
59
Substitution Substitution
Hannes Wolf is substituted for Agustin Ojeda.
59
Update Update
Malachi Jones is on, and Benie Adama Traore is off.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Shore takes a left-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
James Sands takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niklas Dorsch receives a yellow card.
54
Attempt Attempt
Talles Magno takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Ojeda takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Andres Perea takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Talles Magno's header is saved.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Attempt Attempt
Talles Magno takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Benie Adama Traore attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Djordje Mihailovic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Salloi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Joshua Sargent takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Djordje Mihailovic scores, making it 1-1.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Jonathan Osorio.
39
Attempt Attempt
Theo Corbeanu takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Salloi takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
22
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Shore takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
18
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
16
Update Update
Offside.
16
Attempt Attempt
Talles Magno takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
14
Update Update
Offside.
13
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Salloi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Talles Magno.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Nicolas Ezequiel Fernandez Mercau scores with a left-footed shot.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! The score is now 1-0.
7
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Richmond Laryea.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Osorio attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ramy Touchan.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between New York City and Toronto highlighted a mismatch between expected goals and actual results. New York City dominated chance creation yet could not convert superiority into a win. Toronto defended effectively despite lower xG output and secured a point on the road. Possession figures remained nearly even throughout the contest. Absence of red cards allowed both teams to maintain full personnel on the pitch. This outcome underscores how efficiency metrics can align even when final scores deviate from underlying data. Teams will review these patterns ahead of upcoming fixtures to refine attacking and defensive approaches.