Netherlands vs Sweden preview
World Cup
Sweden
SWE
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Netherlands secured a decisive 5-1 victory over Sweden after leading 2-0 at halftime. Despite Sweden being designated the stronger team beforehand, the home side produced a dominant display that featured 51 percent possession against 49 percent. Expected goals favored Netherlands at 2.57 to 1.21, creating a differential of 1.36 that matched the final outcome. The result represented a significant 43.3 percent deviation led by the Netherlands and proved consistent with underlying metrics. No red cards occurred during the contest, allowing both teams to maintain full squads throughout the ninety minutes. The performance underscored how the Netherlands converted their opportunities efficiently while Sweden failed to respond after the interval.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Netherlands produced a significant 43.3 percent deviation from pre-match expectations.
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Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance levels.
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xG alignment: The final result stayed consistent with the expected goals figures.
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Market alignment: The outcome aligned with market projections for the contest.
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xG expectations: Netherlands posted 2.57 expected goals against Sweden's 1.21.
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Event impact: The halftime lead of 2-0 shaped the second-half scoring pattern.
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Red card distortion: No red cards were shown, leaving match dynamics undistorted.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Netherlands
Sweden
Movement
Changes since opening
Netherlands
Sweden
Team Power Ranking
i
25.18
43.7
Netherlands
Sweden
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Netherlands
Sweden
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Netherlands
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Netherlands
Netherlands
Sweden
Netherlands
Sweden
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Netherlands
Netherlands
Sweden
Netherlands
Sweden
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- SWE had peak pressure around 34'.
- NED started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-06-21T00:00:31+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Netherlands
vs
Tunisia
League: World Cup
Kickoff: Thu, 25 Jun - 11:00 PM
Venue: Kansas City Stadium
Sweden
vs
Japan
League: World Cup
Kickoff: Thu, 25 Jun - 11:00 PM
Venue: Dallas Stadium
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary